Russia began to lose its share in the oil markets of India and China. Bloomberg has recorded that tanker traffic, which supplies oil to two of Russia's largest markets, has fallen by almost 30% in recent weeks from peaks in the spring. The publication used the "moving average" method, which allows you to evaluate the trend, clearing it of one-time fluctuations.
The agency notes that it is premature to draw far-reaching conclusions based on these data, but the trend towards a reduction in the consumption of Russian oil by the Asian market is quite clear. Bloomberg believes that Asia will not be able to fully replace Western markets for Russia, but this is enough for now to receive windfall profits against the backdrop of record oil prices.
According to the agency's estimates, Russia currently receives about $160 million in budget revenues per week, which is almost 25% higher than before the start of the war. However, the current revenue figure has already fallen by 25% from the spring peaks, when oil exports from Russia to Asia peaked. Bloomberg estimates the current volume of tanker oil supplies from Russia at 3.24 million barrels per day, since mid-June this figure has decreased by 467 thousand barrels per day, or 13%.
The average volume of deliveries of Russian oil to China over the past four weeks amounted to 784,000 barrels per day, to India – 679,000. Moreover, these figures may increase after tankers with about 350,000 barrels of oil reveal their final destination. Now the share of India and China in the export of Russian oil fluctuates around 55-56% against 63% in April. The publication notes that even taking into account tankers that have not yet revealed their destination, the volume of Russian oil supplies to Asia fell to a minimum in almost four months.
At the same time, a slight recovery in demand, according to the agency, is observed on the part of European buyers. The total volume of supplies to the Netherlands, Poland and Finland for the first time in a long time exceeded 450,000 barrels per day, supplies to Turkey grew, while supplies to Bulgaria, Romania and Italy decreased.
The Asian market has become the main buyer of Russian oil and is a vital source of government budget revenue. The reduction in revenues threatens the Russian authorities with serious problems, since since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the dependence of the budget on oil and gas revenues has jumped to 40%. Russia is forced to compete in Asian markets with its political allies – Iran and Venezuela, which have reduced their shares in China and India because of Russia.
The G7 countries are currently working on a mechanism for introducing marginal oil prices. With the help of pressure on the insurance market, the countries plan to ban tanker transportation of Russian oil at prices above $40-60 per barrel. Representatives of the G7 are negotiating with the largest buyers of Russian oil – China and India – to join this mechanism.