The Central Bank was offered not to abandon exchange trading in the dollar, euro and pound in favor of the "Russian Bloomberg" – the interbank exchange rate, which would be set on the basis of quotations of 10 largest banks. Analysts suggest that the Central Bank maintain a market-based approach to setting the exchange rate by turning to cross-rates, that is, determining the exchange rate of "unfriendly countries" using the ruble exchange rate against the currencies of "friendly countries", Izvestia writes .
Analysts believe that the option proposed by the regulator carries more risks than maintaining market mechanisms, albeit through third currencies. They believe that assigning the functions of forming exchange rates to banks creates conditions for manipulating the foreign exchange market.
“Banks in such conditions get a complete carte blanche to overestimate rates. Naturally, the victim in this case will be an ordinary Russian who will be forced to buy currency at a higher rate, ”Fyodor Sidorov, founder of the School of Practical Investing, told the publication.
Izvestia calculated the exchange rate that would have been obtained if the market had used the new mechanism of the Central Bank. On August 2, the euro exchange rate in this case would have amounted to 66.16 rubles, and the dollar – 64.86 rubles, against 63.24 and 62.05 rubles on the exchange, respectively, the banking one would have been 4.5% higher than the exchange rate. Experts note that the option proposed by the Central Bank creates space for exchange rate manipulations.
Banks can ignore or, conversely, overestimate some political and economic events and include them in quotes, as a result, the ruble exchange rate against the world's leading currencies will simply "break away from fundamental economic reality." The analysts interviewed by the publication see a way out in the system of cross-currency rates, when the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar, euro and pound sterling will be determined through the yuan or the Hong Kong dollar.
“Let's say if we have a Chinese yuan worth 9.08 rubles, and on the world market the dollar costs 6.75 yuan, then we can calculate the dollar exchange rate as 9.08 X 6.75 = 61.29 rubles. Similarly, it is possible to determine the exchange rate of the dollar against the ruble based on a basket of currencies traded on the Russian market,” Dmitry Babin, an expert on the stock market at BCS Mir Investments, explained, noting that such a rate would be “more interesting and closer to market realities.”
On Friday, July 29, it became known that the Bank of Russia is considering alternatives to exchange trading in the currencies of "unfriendly countries". The regulator started working on this issue with the market a few months ago, when Western countries began imposing sanctions against the National Settlement Depository (NSD), which led to the freezing of foreign assets. Then the Central Bank began to work out a possible scenario for imposing sanctions against the National Clearing Center (NCC) – all currency transactions go through it. The imposition of sanctions against the NCC would make currency trading in the dollar, euro and pound impossible.