The volume of trade between Russia and China has not yet lived up to the expectations of Russian officials, despite high-profile speeches, including by President Vladimir Putin, about a record trade turnover between the countries. The growth in trade turnover is mainly due to a disproportionate increase in Russian energy exports to China, but there is no significant growth in the opposite direction. Moreover, a trade surplus creates additional risks for the ruble exchange rate, as a strong national currency is still a headache for the Russian authorities. Kommersant drew attention to customs statistics.
According to the results of the first 8 months, exports from Russia to China grew by 50% and reached $72.9 billion; Chinese imports over the same period grew by only 8.5% and reached $44.2 billion. The trade surplus quadrupled during this time and reached $28.7 billion in August, which continues to strengthen the national currency. At the same time, Russia’s share in China’s trade turnover reached only 2.75%, the Russian share of imports grew from 2.9% to 4%, while Russia’s share in Chinese exports has generally decreased since the beginning of 2022: from 2% in 2021 to 1.9% in the current.
President Vladimir Putin, at the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) in Vladivostok, boasted that trade between the two countries in 2022 could exceed $200 billion. on the Russian side – primitive, including natural resources or goods of simple processing: wood, fertilizers, frozen fish. Natural resources account for 68% in monetary terms and 78% in quantitative terms. The review also says that China is in no hurry to increase its supplies to Russia.
“There are often cases of extremely cautious attitude of Chinese banks towards clients from Russia,” the publication quotes the opinion of the trade representative of the Russian Federation in China, Alexei Dakhnovsky.
On the Chinese side at the WEF was the chairman of the standing committee of the National People's Congress Li Zhanshu (the third-ranking official in the unofficial hierarchy of the leaders of the PRC). During the forum, he mainly spoke about the development of regional cooperation with the Far East and that “we need to remove trade barriers, ensure the safe and smooth functioning of value chains”, “create a more sustainable, safe and free environment for investment and trade and thereby giving new impetus to economic globalization.”
Since the beginning of the war with Ukraine, the Russian authorities have regularly used the narrative about China’s readiness to become Russia’s main trading partner and replace Western markets, among other things, with supplies of its own products, but in reality, the expectations of the Russian establishment have not yet been justified . Chinese companies are not increasing deliveries to Russia and cannot replace much of the high-tech products that were supplied from "unfriendly countries." Moreover, a positive trade balance creates additional difficulties for the Russian economy, as it strengthens the national currency. The strong ruble, in turn, hurts the income of export industries, making their products uncompetitive even in Asian markets.