During the escalation of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Russia does not have the resources for peacekeeping, so officials only appeal to the heads of state to stop the escalation. At the same time, the public is concerned about what is happening in Ukraine: no one, including the CSTO, will come to the aid of Armenia and Azerbaijan. This was stated by The Insider political scientist Arkady Dubnov.
According to him, Russia does not have any real resources for peacekeeping, so Russian President Vladimir Putin apparently called on Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev at night to stop. Right now, it is especially important for both the leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and Putin to show that they "are capable of reconciling everyone with everyone."
Dubnov notes that today Grigory Karasin, head of the international committee of the Federation Council, made a special statement that it was allegedly thanks to Moscow that Armenia and Azerbaijan managed to achieve a truce. At the same time, the public is concerned about what is happening in Ukraine now, the political scientist added.
The expert suggested that Aliyev will change the agenda of the upcoming SCO summit in Samarkand, where everyone will be, including Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Alexander Lukashenko. The Azerbaijani leader "very tough and precise" chose the moment, the political scientist believes:
“Aliev decided not to wait and fired loudly from a loaded gun. The moment has been precisely chosen: in two days Samarkand will host the SCO summit, which will be attended not only by the “Shanghai” themselves, but also by numerous guests, in total, the heads of fifteen states, including the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as Turkey and Iran.”
According to him, Aliyev wants to persuade Pashinyan to start negotiations on peace treaties, but the Armenians are resisting:
“They lost the war and are stubborn, thinking they can make a difference. Unfortunately and tragically, they won't be able to."
In addition, the political scientist said that if 49 people really died on the Armenian side at night, as Pashinyan claims, then this is “the bloodiest armed clash since the 44-day war of 2020 between countries.” According to him, looking at what is happening, one can assume that Baku is making it clear: we can repeat it! Almost all Armenian-Azerbaijani military aggravations began with Baku accusing Yerevan of some kind of provocation, which gave Azerbaijan a reason to start military operations against Armenia, Dubnov claims. He believes that even in this case, the armed reaction of Azerbaijan looks disproportionate.
The expert clarified that today it is "especially important for both the leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Putin to show" that they are able to reconcile everyone with everyone, while "building a bastion of a single East that opposes the collective West":
“What place is given to Ukraine here, where the NWO continues, started by one of the founding fathers of the SCO, has not yet been decided.”
Moscow is assigned the role of a passive peacemaker-observer, whose efforts managed to achieve an urgent truce, summed up Dubnov.
On the night of September 13, the Armenian Defense Ministry announced shelling from Azerbaijan on Armenian positions using artillery, mortars and UAVs. Pashinyan announced 49 dead and decided to seek help from Russia, the UN Security Council and the CSTO. The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry denies information about its invasion, calls the statements of the Armenian Defense Ministry absurd, and also accuses Armenia of provocations and planting mines on the supply roads of Azerbaijani units.
The escalation of the armed conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh took place on September 27, 2020. On the night of November 10, Pashinyan, together with the presidents of Russia and Azerbaijan, adopted a tripartite statement on a ceasefire, the entry of peacekeepers into Nagorno-Karabakh and the transfer of a number of regions in the region to Azerbaijan. In Armenia, because of this decision, protests and demonstrations for the resignation of Pashinyan began. In April of this year, large-scale protests took place in Armenia after the prime minister's statements that the international community expects the Armenian side to lower the bar on demands for the status of Nagorno-Karabakh. A crowd of thousands of protesters blocked the streets and demanded Pashinyan's resignation because of his intentions to make concessions to Azerbaijan on the Karabakh issue.