The countries of the former USSR took advantage of the imposed sanctions against Russia and increased the supply of goods, often at higher prices relative to the market. We are talking about Kazakhstan, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, which together with Russia are members of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), as well as Georgia and Uzbekistan. This is evidenced by the data of customs statistics, which were analyzed by RBC.
The total volume of deliveries from the EAEU to Russia since the beginning of the war is estimated at $9.4 billion – against $8.2 billion for the same period last year, an increase of 15%. Experts note that the former countries of the USSR take advantage of Russia's trade weakness, which is trying in vain to increase the supply of goods by "parallel imports". The too strong ruble exchange rate plays in favor of the republics, which makes deliveries especially profitable, however, using trade restrictions, companies can deliberately raise the prices of goods. According to analysts, the average markup on goods is about 5% of the market value of the goods, but for some categories of goods it can reach 15-20%.
The leader in the growth of deliveries was Belarus, which took second place in terms of exports to Russia, overtaking Germany. At the end of June, exports exceeded $2 billion, demonstrating an increase of almost 50% compared to 2021 and 22.8% compared to May 2022. Commodity items of exports are not disclosed, as the EAEU countries partially joined Russia and reduced the available information on trade turnover.
In second place in terms of supplies was Kazakhstan, which has repeatedly stated that it does not intend to violate the sanctions regime against Russia, as it does not want to create risks for its own economy. After a decrease in the level of exports from Kazakhstan to Russia in the spring of 2022, in June it increased by 1.6% compared to the same period last year, and by the end of July it increased by 13.9%.
RBC estimates total exports at $716 million, of which $109 million is for iron and steel flats, $75 million for inorganic chemicals, $36 million for vehicles and auto parts, $14 million for plastics supplies, and $8 million for bearings. The food industry is also growing: the publication notes that in some regions of Russia they noticed Coca-Cola produced in Kazakhstan.
By the end of June, Armenia almost doubled the volume of deliveries to Russia, up to $140 million, Kyrgyzstan — 4.7 times more than in June 2021, up to $124.2 million. The total volume of exports from Kyrgyzstan since the beginning of the war has grown by more than doubled and reached $396 million. In July, exports from Uzbekistan increased 1.7 times in annual terms, to $258 million. Georgia increased supplies to Russia in July to $82.6 million, although in June they were still only at the level of $46 .2 million
Sanctions against Russia collapsed imports into the country, which led to a record trade surplus (the superiority of exports over imports). This situation has a negative impact on the ruble exchange rate, which strengthens excessively and hurts the income of Russian exporters, whose products become uncompetitive on the Russian market. To reduce the effects of sanctions and increase imports into the country, the Russian authorities have relied on parallel import programs, that is, the supply of goods to Russia without the permission of the copyright holder, but these efforts have not fundamentally changed the situation – the trade surplus is still at a high level.