Russian revenues from oil exports continue to fall and have already fallen to a minimum since February 2021, a period of active recovery in oil prices after the peak of the coronavirus pandemic, when oil quotes were trading in the region of $60 per barrel. Bloomberg, which has been tracking Russian offshore shipments since the war, estimates that cumulative tanker oil exports have fallen to less than 3 million bpd for the first time in five months of records.
The agency notes that oil supplies to China and India can no longer compensate Russia for the loss of the European market, while there is still no full-fledged oil embargo, as well as the introduction of a ceiling on prices for Russian oil. Over the past two weeks, the volume of oil supplied from Russia by tankers has fallen by almost 900,000 barrels per day: from 3.42 million to 2.54 million. The main reason for the drop in revenues is a decrease in oil supplies to Europe, Turkey and Asia.
The agency believes that if Russia fails to restore export volumes, then the situation will only get worse for it in the near future. According to the current legislation, due to the fall in oil prices, the export duty on oil in October will fall by about 15%, which will bring down Russia's oil revenues to the level of February 2021. At the same time, Russia will have to face additional pressure: firstly, the agency notes, this is an oil embargo from the EU, and secondly, the introduction of an oil price ceiling.
If the first solution may lead to a reduction in supply, but will accelerate oil prices due to a shortage in the market, then the imposition of a price ceiling can solve the problem of high prices – as many countries will simply refuse to cooperate with Russia on its terms. The publication doubts that China, Turkey and India will join the price ceiling, but its introduction in any case will strengthen their negotiating positions, and they will be able to beat out discounts for themselves even more than now.
At the moment, the size of the discount for Russian Urals oil in relation to the North Sea benchmark Brent is estimated at $21.5, against $18.7 a month earlier. Over the past week until September 16, 23 tankers loaded 17.8 million barrels of Russian oil, which was the absolute minimum in two months of observations. Deliveries to European countries decreased the most, the fall was 18%, or 172,000 barrels per day.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has previously recorded a sharp decline in Russia's revenues from oil exports. In August, according to the IEA, they fell by $1.2 billion and amounted to $17.7 billion. Against the backdrop of a record reduction in budget revenues, the Russian authorities are urgently looking for ways to make up for them. The only way the Russian establishment sees is to raise taxes on all of Russia's export industries: the oil and gas and coal sectors, the fertilizer industry, and the chemical industry. In total, with their help, the authorities expect to replenish the budget by more than 3 trillion rubles over three years.