The units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue the counter-offensive to reach the borders of the “LPR”, now they have partially broken through the defense of the Russian Federation on the Dvurechnoye-Kupyansk sector. At the same time, even against the background of the mobilization announced in Russia, no changes will occur on the battlefield, there will simply be “more corpses”, and Ukraine will have reason to demand the introduction of new sanctions against the Russian Federation. This was stated in a conversation with The Insider by military experts. Also, mobilization will be a huge problem for the Russian economy, as the country will have to provide hundreds of thousands of troops.
Retired SBU Major General Viktor Yagun believes that Russia will now face such problems that "all the latest upheavals will seem like just jokes."
“The mere fact that mobilization in Russia was announced only three times (in 1914, 1941 and in 2022) already speaks for itself. Collecting 300,000 from the cities and towns of the country is nothing. What to put on this horde in winter, what to put on, what to feed, how to arm, and most importantly, where to get junior commanders (fired and motivated) who will bring it to its senses and lead it to death?
Yagun believes that no changes in strategy will follow, but "there will be more corpses."
“And I’m not talking about the economic consequences for the country, from the economy of which so many workers were pulled out.”
A similar opinion was expressed by military expert Sergei Grabsky. He agreed that the country's economy would suffer losses, since about 300 thousand people would be involved in the mobilization, while about 100-200 thousand people left Russia. As a result, the Russian economy will lose half a million workers in the coming months, Grabsky believes. The country also needs to provide, clothe and feed these 300,000 mobilized.
Now Ukraine continues to improve the defense capability and combat capability of its armed forces and carry out combat training activities: training troops, combat coordination, mastering the received weapons, training staffs, the expert stressed. According to him, from a political point of view, mobilization enables Ukraine to use political and diplomatic instruments of influence and demand stronger sanctions against Russia.
“Russia is shooting itself in the foot with the stubbornness of a maniac. In the NATO school, we were taught that the economy wins the war, and the task of the armed forces is to give this victory more or less satisfactory forms. There is an example from military history – Germany in the First World War had the most professional army and the best commanders, and in this war she did not fight for a second on her territory. She continued offensive operations in the summer of 2018, and this ended in defeat for her, because objectively she entered the battle with world empires, reinforced by the industrial power of the United States. She could not win. And Russia cannot win this war.”
The expert also commented on the words of Vladimir Putin about the possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons. Grabsky expressed confidence that this is nothing more than a bluff, since this is a game "not even at the level of Russia and Ukraine, but at the level of civilization and the Russian Empire." He stressed that there is a serious system of monitoring and control of all nuclear facilities. The expert cited the situation at the Zaporozhye NPP as an example, when everyone “expressed concern” about the situation for a long time, but as soon as three radiation monitoring sensors in the ZNPP area stopped responding to requests and signals, the IAEA mission immediately turned up there. According to Grabsky, Putin "lost in this case."
In the case of "uncharacteristic movements" at nuclear facilities, the reaction of the world community will be instantaneous, Grabsky assures. At the same time, it is also not necessary to use nuclear weapons in response, it is enough to inflict a targeted strike on an object, and it will be impossible to use a nuclear weapon.
“Let's take the conditional Yeysk, where there are storage facilities for tactical nuclear weapons. Satellites are constantly hanging over it, there are visible and invisible systems for monitoring and controlling the level of radiation, there is a system of operational intelligence. If any uncharacteristic movement is noticed there, the reaction of the world community will be instantaneous. And there is no need to use nuclear weapons to strike this object, because the nuclear weapon itself is a fragile thing and requires very delicate handling. Any violation of storage conditions or temperature conditions nullifies all possibilities of use. If someone notices that the algorithm has been launched and the process has started, then this object is hit, and not necessarily a nuclear one, in order to exclude the possibility of its exploitation.”
However, it is impossible to influence the human factor and the inadequacy of decisions, the expert continues. The probability of using nuclear weapons, although low, is still there. Grabsky claims that in this case, NATO will regard this as an attack on the countries of the alliance, and a strike from Russia will be prevented even at the launch level. At the same time, nuclear weapons do not explode on impact.
“It can't explode. When I started to undergo special training at the school, the first lesson looked like this – we are taken to the training ground, the teacher takes a TNT bomb, puts it on the sand and shoots at it. We have a shock, of course, and he shot her three or four times. She was shattered into pieces. It's about the same with nuclear weapons. For it to work, several additional charges must be detonated simultaneously to start a chain reaction. If the synchronism is broken or part of the charges did not work, then there will be no chain reaction. Yes, the shell can be broken and there will be a local burst of radiation, but nothing more.”
Earlier, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) concluded that the mobilization announced by Putin will not deprive Ukraine of the opportunity to liberate most of the occupied territories this winter. According to analysts, mobilization is unlikely to help increase the combat capability of the Russian army; rather, it only compensates for losses. Putin announced mobilization in Russia on September 21, after which Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu promised to call on 300,000 "reservists".