The European Union intends to tighten the already existing sanctions against Russian oil. At the moment, representatives of the countries of the bloc are discussing the possibility of imposing restrictions on oil supplies by sea to third countries, but there are still no plans to impose sanctions against pipeline supplies. This was reported by Bloomberg, citing sources close to the negotiations.
They want to synchronize the new ban and tie it to the introduction of a ceiling on prices for Russian oil, the newspaper claims. Thus, Greece, Cyprus and Malta will lose their preferences – it was these countries that managed to achieve exceptions from the sanctions package in the summer, which allowed local companies to continue to supply Russian oil to third countries. They are now expected to operate on equal terms under the price cap mechanism.
However, the move to a ceiling on Russian oil prices would require the EU to amend the already approved sanctions package in order to eliminate the possibility for European countries to bypass the restrictions. Difficulties may arise in approving the changes, the agency notes, as the unanimity of all 27 EU members is required. If a consensus is reached, all EU countries, the UK, the US and other G7 members will reach an agreement in principle on the introduction of a mechanism that will prohibit working with Russian oil if its price exceeds the price set by the mechanism.
The agency notes that the EU is likely to face the already classic Hungarian standoff over energy sanctions. Resistance is expected from countries that have achieved exceptions for pipeline oil from Russia (in addition to Hungary, these are the Czech Republic and Slovakia), as well as from shipping countries (Greece, Malta and Cyprus), which may demand some kind of exemption or exemption for themselves.
The question also remains about the effectiveness of the measure itself and whether countries outside the EU and the G7 are ready to implement the mechanism. Firstly, the “marginal price” is still incomprehensible – representatives of Western countries have not publicly spoken about it since the summer, when a range of around $40-60 per barrel was called. Secondly, it is still not clear how to monitor the implementation of the mechanism and how to influence those countries that refuse to join it. At the same time, the American authorities are confident that the introduction of a mechanism even at the level of the EU countries and the G7 will make it possible to hit Moscow's oil revenues sharply, as it will enable Russian partners, primarily China and India, to knock out new discounts from Russia.