The United States and Great Britain will instantly receive information about the possible use of nuclear weapons by Russia, since the technical means of control and the intelligence network make it possible to find out the exact data, and it is impossible to hide the transportation of nuclear weapons. This was stated in a conversation with The Insider by an expert in nuclear missile weapons, a former employee of the missile design bureau of the Southern Machine-Building Plant Alexander Kochetkov.
The expert said that nuclear warheads, mines, shells and air bombs are placed in special long-term storage facilities with a certain temperature. If this temperature goes beyond the limits, then the reliability of nuclear weapons cannot be guaranteed. Russia stores such weapons mainly in Siberia, from where they will need to be transported, Kochetkov explained.
The delivery of nuclear munitions when removed from long-term storage is carried out as follows: they are placed in a special container and transported under guard to a position point, for example, to an airfield, if it is an aerial bomb, or to an Iskander-type missile position to load a rocket there. The expert added that the Iskanders are mainly located in Belarus, and Alexander Lukashenko said that nuclear weapons could be deployed on the territory of the republic. However, things did not go further than talks, Kochetkov emphasizes.
In addition to the fact that the warhead needs to be taken out of long-term storage, moved to the launch site, attached to a rocket or loaded onto an aircraft, there is another line of control, the expert continues. In the event of preparations for an attack, Russia's nuclear forces should not be put on high, but on full alert, in order to shorten the period of use.
“Bringing Russia's nuclear forces into full combat readiness is fixed at the command level. Nuclear weapons were created by specialists in Soviet times, and nothing has changed in Russia. A complex and multi-level system provides protection from both a fool and a maniac. Putin cannot press one button to start the apocalypse. There is multiple confirmation there – the minister of defense, the chief of the General Staff, the commander of the strategic missile forces must confirm, and then the team descends into the division where the carriers of weapons are located, and then – to the executors.
Kochetkov said that as a result, five or six stages are needed, each of which requires confirmation and the introduction of special codes. According to him, the likelihood that confirmation will occur at all stages is minimal. At the same time, it is unlikely that such a command will be executed at the level of performers, if we are talking about an attack on Ukraine, since Russian troops are stationed there, and this is a "strike on friendly."
The expert cited as an example an experiment to simulate an attack on the USSR during the Cold War. Then, according to him, in the launch silos, two officers had to simultaneously press the button after the command. Only 25% of the officers coped with the task. With how many participants the experiment was conducted, the expert did not specify. However, he added that now the probability of carrying out this command is even lower, since it is unlikely that any of the officers "sees the point of starting a nuclear war with a strike on their own."
At the same time, if the launch of nuclear carriers from the side of a conditional enemy country of Russia is recorded, all stages should fit within half an hour. If there is no such threat and we are talking about a preemptive strike, time can stretch out, the expert explains. Kochetkov recalled that the United States had already brought to the attention of the Kremlin its right to respond to the movement of weapons, including the preventive destruction of a transported warhead with cruise missiles and precision weapons. Other information was also reported to the Kremlin, he claims:
“Another option is to use conventional means to completely destroy all the occupying troops on the territory of Ukraine, including Crimea, within a few days. This information has been conveyed, and the Kremlin knows about it.”
If the United States is not informed via a special nuclear telephone line that a nuclear weapon is being removed from storage or transported to a manufacturing plant, this will already be considered as a potential threat of a nuclear attack on the United States or its allies, Kochetkov continues. This is fixed with the help of satellites and aerial reconnaissance aircraft, since the nuclear weapon "even a little bit, but fonit."
“Now three such aircraft have been raised, and they fly in the territory close to Ukraine. [All manipulations by Russians] become known with the help of undercover intelligence, with which the US and the UK are doing well. They knew about the attack on Ukraine in advance, and information about any action with nuclear weapons will instantly become known in the United States and Great Britain. It is impossible to hide the transport of nuclear weapons.”
According to Kochetkov, Russia informs its allies and the United States about each case of movement of ammunition. There is a direct line between the White House and the Kremlin, through which contacts occur once every two days. At the same time, countries do not consider the use of strategic nuclear weapons, the specialist explained. It is technologically difficult to hit Ukraine with weapons “from a megaton”, because everyone will suffer. In this case, it will be necessary to change the flight mission for the submarine in the ocean, because such "absurd flight missions" were not considered in the USSR. Tactical missiles, the use of which countries are talking about, will not be able to carry powerful strategic weapons. When they are used, the consequences will affect all countries of the Black Sea region, including NATO countries. The use of US tactical missiles by Russia will be considered as an attack on NATO countries with the inclusion of the Fifth Article and response.
“Many people argue that trying to give the launch command to Putin will be one of the last decisions of his life. This is exactly what could push for something similar in the Kremlin. He is elderly and not very healthy, and the rest want to eat deliciously, sleep well and enjoy what they have "earned" during their lives. There are few people in the Kremlin who want to turn into nuclear ashes. They even mobilize for war and mobilize their children – and they don’t want to, but what is there to talk about? But when a country is attacked by a nuclear power led by a maniac, the nuclear threat exists, it is above zero. We must be aware of this,” Kochetkov concluded.
Military expert Sergei Grabsky said in a conversation with The Insider that the words of Russian President Vladimir Putin about the possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons are nothing more than a bluff. There is a serious system of monitoring and control of all nuclear facilities, Grabsky specified. The expert cited the situation at the Zaporozhye NPP as an example: then the IAEA mission ended up at the plant as soon as three radiation monitoring sensors in the ZNPP area stopped responding to requests and signals. He clarified that in the case of "uncharacteristic movements" at nuclear facilities, the reaction of the world community would also be instantaneous. It will be possible to inflict a pinpoint strike on the object – and it will be impossible to use a nuclear weapon, Grabsky assured.
