Military mobilization and the outflow of the population from Russia caused by it will lead to a collapse in the labor market. In less than two weeks since the announcement of the mobilization, he lost at least 700,000 able-bodied citizens, which is about 1% of the country's entire workforce. Experts note that the problems will intensify, as highly qualified specialists often leave abroad. Kommersant writes about this with reference to analysts' calculations, as well as estimates that are being discussed in the government.
Uncertain business prospects create risks for the entire labor market, the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF) notes: entrepreneurs do not understand what to expect in the near future, and are in no hurry to hire new employees. This is evidenced by the statistics of new vacancies at the labor exchange even before the start of mobilization: a decrease of 18.4% in August, by 16.7% in July in annual terms.
However, mobilization will lead to a break in the trend: a reduction in vacancies, coupled with a reduction in the workforce, may lead to a shortage of personnel in the Russian labor market. Currently, the outflow of labor resources is estimated at 700 thousand people, and this figure continues to grow.
“The impact of the departure of at least 700 thousand people (migration and the first wave of mobilization) will lead to a shortage of labor, and services will especially suffer,” notes Igor Polyakov from the CMASF.
The authorities are belatedly reacting to the quite expected problems in the labor market. At the moment, only the first block of measures is at the final stage, which should simplify the work of business and entrepreneurs in the conditions of the announced mobilization. Sources of the publication claim that this week the measures should work. At the same time, it is noted that the government was not ready for the consequences, it had to assess the actual problems associated with mobilization. We are talking about a whole range of difficulties – from the fulfillment of contractual obligations to the existence of some enterprises in principle.
The key difficulty for big business is the legal basis for mobilization, as well as the issue of compensation for financial support for those mobilized. The authorities are considering the option of introducing tax incentives for such enterprises. Industry-specific business associations (Business Russia, the Chamber of Commerce and Industry and Opora Rossii) insist that the authorities should support businesses that are suffering from mobilization. However, for example, lobbying groups do not want to help enterprises that are on the verge of closure due to mobilization, they only ask the authorities to pay compensation to those mobilized, freeing businesses from this obligation.
The most acute issue is about the delay and armor from mobilization: many companies have already complained that the Ministry of Defense is mobilizing leading specialists who are often critical to enterprises. Requests are being sent to the government to release all founders of enterprises, their managers, chief accountants, individual entrepreneurs and heads of farms from mobilization. Moreover, at the suggestion of companies, the deferment will not apply to new IP – we are talking only about those enterprises that were opened at least six months ago. The issue of quotas for enterprises is also being discussed, so that, as a result of mobilizations, companies do not remain without employees at all. It is proposed to extend the reservation to 30% of employees with a staff of 15 or more people and to 50% of the staff if the number is less than 15 people.