Russian President Vladimir Putin, who spent decades trying to stimulate the birth rate in Russia, as well as restore natural population growth, ended up driving the country into a new demographic hole and was responsible for the largest population loss in modern Russian history. Bloomberg came to this conclusion after analyzing demographic statistics and talking with scientists.
The main reason for the catastrophic decline in the population is the war in Ukraine: thousands of dead, hundreds of thousands of men mobilized and left the country, as well as women of active childbearing age, coupled with the economic consequences of sanctions and the fall in the purchasing power of the population, create a “perfect storm” for Russian demography. Moreover, the new conditions in which Russia finds itself are undermining demographic goals already in 2022 – it is in the current year, according to the plans of the government, that the growth of natural population loss should have stopped.
From 2030, the authorities expected a natural increase in the population, however, according to the agency, at a recent closed meeting, these forecasts were declared invalid and unrealistic in terms of implementation. The new version of the plan predicts a reduction in the population by 413,000 people. Independent demographer Alexander Raksha compares the current situation with the 1990s, when economic difficulties stopped many families from planning a child.
Demographer Igor Yefremov of the Moscow-based Gaidar Institute expects fewer than 1.2 million people to be born in Russia in 2023, an absolute minimum in Russia's modern history. The number of deaths in recent years, on average, was at the level of 2 million people, and in the pandemic year of 2021 it reached 2.5 million Russians. Yefremov insists that the main problem is not even a decrease in the population, but the lack of prospects for the Russians, who in the current conditions simply refuse to start families.
“The main blow to the birth rate will be indirect, because for most families, as a result, the planning horizon will be completely destroyed. And the impact will be stronger the longer the mobilization lasts,” says Yefremov.
The main victim of the demographic crisis will be the Russian economy, which will lack young and educated workers. The agency believes that the Russian economy will not grow in the coming years at a rate faster than 0.5%, which is five times less than the agency's estimates before the start of the war. Moreover, demographic failures and the difficult situation in the annexed territories will require the authorities to spend additional money and consolidate revenues, including increasing the tax burden in the face of limited growth, which will also only negatively affect the population and the economy.
“The population of Russia is declining, and the war will reduce it even more. The reasons? Emigration, low birth rates and losses associated with the war. This will undermine potential growth and drag out fiscal policy as the government attempts to reverse the shrinking workforce with pro-natalist policies,” economist Alexander Isakov said.
The mobilization is hitting families at the most difficult moment for Russian demographics, when the number of women of childbearing age has fallen by about a third over the past decade. The situation is aggravated by one of the highest death rates in the world, as well as an aging labor market, an outflow of immigrants and questions about Russia's ability to attract workers from abroad. Moreover, sociologists are in no hurry to predict when this trend will reverse. Yefremov believes that by 2024 the birth rate in Russia may even fall to 1 million people, and the birth rate to 1.2 children per woman, which was last observed at the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries. Currently, the birth rate in Russia is hovering around 1.6 children per woman.
Support for Russian families is one of the main pillars of Vladimir Putin's policy. During the long years of his reign, the president lobbied for the introduction of preferential mortgages, maternity capital and many benefits for children, which stimulated Russian families to give birth. The costs of these measures were annually estimated at hundreds of billions of rubles, but the current situation may nullify the entire positive effect.