Payments to those mobilized in Russia and their families, including compensation in case of injury or death, will amount to 900 billion to 3 trillion rubles over the next six months, Reuters reports citing Dmitry Polevoy, investment director at Loko-Invest.
At the same time, according to analysts, Russia has little ability to cover the budget deficit, since sanctions and counter-sanctions have undermined the ability of foreign investors to invest in domestic ruble bonds, and the Ministry of Finance is already draining the resources of the National Welfare Fund.
Experts interviewed by the agency note that the Russian federal budget for next year has been drafted without taking into account spending on the mobilization and annexation of the regions of Ukraine. The budget also does not take into account the introduction of a price ceiling for Russian hydrocarbons.
Due to a slowdown in economic activity and weak imports, Moscow will receive about 1 trillion rubles less per year from value added tax, its main non-energy income, according to a joint study by the RANEPA and the Gaidar Institute.
In particular, the budget includes income from energy resources at the level of 9 trillion rubles. “The [Russian] Ministry of Finance predicts amazing things, for example, that energy revenues will remain the same,” an economist at a Western company told the agency.
As Europe cuts ties with Russia, Moscow risks losing 55% of its oil product exports next year, or more than 80 million tons, according to the government. Gazprom's gas exports in January-October have already decreased by 43% compared to the same period last year.
The Ministry of Finance forecasts non-energy or economic activity-related revenues to be 11.5% of GDP in 2023, about 7% higher than this year and at pre-pandemic levels.