Ships of crude oil from Russia by sea hit a five-month high ahead of Western sanctions that should undermine Russian oil exports. The volume of deliveries reached 3.6 million barrels per day, which was a record value since the beginning of June, while the weekly average reached a maximum since August and amounted to 3.18 million barrels per day. This is reported by Bloomberg, which monitors the export of Russian oil.
The agency notes that a sharp increase in shipments of Russian oil is observed in those ports from which oil will take a long time. The agency attributes this surge to the approaching sanctions of Western countries, which should come into force on December 5. Restrictions from the G7, the European Union and Australia imply a ban on the provision of any services to companies that supply Russian oil by sea at prices below the established ceiling. The sanctions apply to tankers that received Russian oil after December 5 and reached their final destination later than January 19.
Against this background, shipments of oil from the terminal in Murmansk jumped, deliveries from which are considered the longest. The agency believes that this growth is due to the desire of some countries and companies to buy Russian oil before the imposition of sanctions. The publication also notes that with the approach of sanctions, the ships themselves are becoming more cautious, hiding their real destinations and limiting themselves to common points, for example, the Suez Canal. In such locations, tankers can transfer oil to other ships in order to confuse those who monitor the supply. The publication notes that such cases are more typical of tankers that follow to India: due to the longer export time, it is these deliveries that are at risk of being sanctioned.
At the same time, European buyers also decided to increase the volume of supplies in anticipation of the imposition of sanctions. Exports to the EU countries reached a maximum in 6 weeks and amounted to approximately 762,000 barrels per day, during the month the volume of supplies increased by 51,000 barrels, or 7%. The leaders of purchases are the countries of Northern Europe and the states of the Mediterranean, in particular, one of the tankers that left Murmansk and unloaded in the Italian Savona.
In total, in the last week of October (ended on November 4), 35 tankers with a total volume of 25.2 million barrels left Russian ports. Russia's oil revenues rose to $149 million in the last week of October against the backdrop of rising exports, and to $536 million in the whole of October. The weekly figure reached a maximum over the past five weeks. According to the latest known data, the discount on Russian oil relative to Brent is $25.5 per barrel. In part, state revenues also suffer from a decrease in the export duty on oil, which is set at a minimum since January 2021 and amounts to $5.83 per barrel.
Western countries still did not provide the meaning of "marginal oil prices". Earlier, the American authorities talked about the level around $60 per barrel, but the authorities did not rush to come up with concrete figures. It is expected that the ceiling will be set in anticipation of the start of the sanctions on December 5 and will be agreed with all countries that have expressed their willingness to join the sanctions.