The phasing out of Russian gas has turned Europe into the largest market for liquefied natural gas in the world. In terms of supplies, the European Union has bypassed the long-term leader of the rating – China. It is reported by RBC with reference to data from the research company Kpler.
For 10 months of 2022, Europe received 105 billion cubic meters of gas, for the same period last year, the EU received almost half as much – 64 billion cubic meters, and for the whole of 2021 – 78.1 billion cubic meters. In the first 10 months of 2021, China purchased 87.5 billion cubic meters of gas, and only 69.9 billion cubic meters in the same period this year. For the whole of 2021, China bought 108 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas.
Kpler Senior LNG Analyst Laura Page expects Europe to purchase a total of 123 billion cubic meters of LNG in 2022. Approximately the same figures were given to the publication by the analyst of the design center for energy transition and ESG Skoltech Sergey Kapitonov, who expects 125 billion cubic meters of LNG. The share of LNG in Europe's gas consumption, according to Kapitonov's forecasts, will grow from the current 18% to 35%.
Europe is forced to switch to the purchase of liquefied natural gas due to a sharp reduction in supplies from Russia. In 2021, Russian Gazprom delivered to Europe (including Turkey) 155 billion cubic meters of gas, about 40% of Europe's consumption came from Russian gas, which now almost never enters the EU. In 2022, according to the estimates of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Russia will supply only 60 billion cubic meters of gas, all other EU capacities had to be replaced by LNG supplies.
The abrupt change in supplier led to a shortage of LNG in world markets, which caused a sharp increase in energy and electricity prices within Europe. Moreover, if the problems with gas supply in 2022 have almost disappeared, then analysts are gradually getting more and more questions about resolving similar issues in 2023. We are talking, in particular, about the upcoming competition with China, which may increase consumption against the backdrop of a recovery in economic growth.