Russia's oil revenues have dropped to the lowest level since the start of the war. According to Bloomberg estimates , Russia's weekly oil revenue fell to its lowest level since the beginning of the year, falling by $31 million to $118 million between November 4 and 11. The average monthly revenue fell by $4 million to $130 million. against the backdrop of a reduction in the export duty on oil, which in November amounted to only $5.83 per barrel, as well as against the background of an increase in the discount on Russian oil on the eve of sanctions. The agency estimates the discount for Russian Urals oil at an average of $25.5 per barrel.
Russia continues to increase supplies to Asia, in particular, to China and India, and also increases exports to Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and Sri Lanka. There is a significant increase in the number of tankers that have stopped specifying their final destination, changing it to generic destinations such as the Suez Canal or Port Said in Egypt. According to the agency's estimates, 2/3 of all Russian oil intended for export is now sent to Asia, compared to only 2/5 before the war with Ukraine.
However, even the reorientation of supplies to Asian markets does not help Russia avoid a reduction in exports. The agency notes that the volume of daily supplies has fallen to a minimum in three weeks and is about 2.9 million barrels per day, of which China, India, Turkey and tankers whose final destination is not marked, account for a total of 2.39 million barrels of oil per day. Deliveries to Europe continue to fall and are currently estimated at about 0.7 million barrels per day.
The agency notes that in anticipation of the sanctions, which will come into effect from December 5, the number of tankers hiding their destinations has increased by about the same amount as the number of tankers bound for India has decreased. In the context of the last month, the average daily volume of supplies fell to 3.12 million barrels per day.
There is a decrease in deliveries from the northern ports of Russia: the deliveries of them are the longest, and they no longer fit into the “deadlines” of the sanctions, that is, they will be delivered after January 19. Suppliers do not want to take on additional risks and are currently focusing on those routes that are still allowed by the current restrictions. From December 5, as expected, the system of marginal prices for oil from Russia will work. These sanctions include a ban on the provision of any (financial, insurance, logistics and other services) if the price of Russian oil in a tanker exceeds the ceiling set by Western countries. The authors of the restrictions have not yet named the price, but it is expected to be higher than $60 per barrel. According to the Ministry of Finance, in October-November it amounted to $71.1 per barrel.
In early November, statistics showed that many countries planned to buy additional Russian oil before the imposition of sanctions. Against this backdrop, export volumes from Russia rose to a maximum in five months and amounted to 3.6 million barrels per day. Iran is ready to help circumvent Western sanctions, but the volume of such support is likely to be insignificant. Experts expect an even greater reduction in Moscow's revenues, as Asian markets will not be able to fully replace Russia's European consumers.