A warm winter in 2022, coupled with the preservation of Russian gas supplies through Ukraine, will allow European countries to successfully pass the heating season not only this year, but also next. This opinion was made by the head of one of the largest energy traders on the planet Trafigura Jeremy Weir, whose words are quoted by Bloomberg.
Weir predicts that by the end of the coming winter, Europe's gas reserves will be filled by about a third, which, according to Trafigura, will be enough to successfully pass the winter of the 2023-2024 season. The only condition is the preservation of gas supplies through the territory of Ukraine, which, despite the hostilities in the region, continue to flow to the EU.
“If this (keeping supplies from the Russian Federation and keeping a third of the gas in storage after the winter) is so, we may not have such a big problem next winter, which was real until quite recently. Many disagree, but I think the problem will be solved,” Weir said, speaking at the Financial Times Commodities Asia Summit in Singapore on Wednesday.
The agency recalls that warm weather not only led to a sharp reduction in gas prices, but even to a local excess of fuel. Given the warming, Europe has bought an excess of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which will now be transferred to reserves and used as needed. Weir also noted that everyone in Europe was very worried about gas prices, but the summer peaks were avoided thanks to timely measures. The Russian side has recently warned that it will consider the option of stopping gas supplies to the EU, in particular, because of Moldova. According to Gazprom, when gas is supplied to Chisinau, part of the fuel "settles" on the territory of Ukraine.
The discussion about the EU's gas supply for the current and next years is taking place against the background of the EU's attempt to agree on the introduction of a ceiling on gas prices in the event of another sharp rise in prices. It became known yesterday that the European Commission proposed its own version of the price ceiling, which will be set at about $3,000 per thousand cubic meters of gas, and also affects the spot and over-the-counter markets in order to avoid liquidity overflows. The system was supposed to be activated exclusively at record fuel prices, until they were reached, it would work as before. This option did not suit almost all countries, since it did not satisfy any of the two opposing camps within the EU: neither supporters nor opponents of the ceiling.
Proponents call the proposed ceiling level too high and useless, its effectiveness will be near zero, since the ceiling is set at the level of peak values that were recorded in the summer of 2022. Opponents, on the other hand, appeal to the fact that in the event of a crisis, the proposed mechanism will not contain gas and electricity prices, and the decrease in the margins of energy companies will lead to the fact that suppliers will choose more profitable markets in Asia. Initially, a decision on the ceiling was expected on November 24, but due to too much controversy among EU members, it is likely to be postponed to December.