Kremlin terrorist plan
Russia is doing everything to make the upcoming winter the most difficult test for Ukraine and the whole world. Since October 10, the Russian military has launched massive attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. The largest strike was on November 15 – the Russians fired more than 90 missiles. According to the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, 10 million peaceful Ukrainians were left without electricity. In total, more than 400 critical infrastructure facilities in the field of electricity and heat supply have been hit since the beginning of the war.
First of all, the purpose of Russian strikes was electrical substations designed to receive, convert and distribute electrical energy and connect parts of the Ukrainian energy system into a single whole. It was expected that attacks on electrical substations would "cut" this whole into pieces. The goals of the second level were generating capacities – power plants of Ukraine, said Dmitry Sakharuk, executive director of the largest private energy company in Ukraine, DTEK. They are larger and harder to disable. The November 15 strikes targeted gas production facilities in the Odessa and Dnepropetrovsk regions. The Russians also fired at the Khmelnitsky nuclear power plant, after which it was temporarily de-energized. The organizers of the attacks most likely knew how to effectively hit the Ukrainian energy system in order to cause maximum damage.
The target of Russian strikes was electrical substations designed to receive, convert and distribute electrical energy.
The Kremlin and the Ministry of Defense are not shy about admitting that they really are hitting Ukraine's energy facilities with "high-precision weapons." The Russian authorities are not embarrassed by the fact that targeted attacks on civilian infrastructure, especially on the eve of winter, are considered a war crime from the point of view of international humanitarian law. Zelensky said that Moscow is trying to use the coming cold as a weapon that will hit Ukrainians left without heat and light.
“The first part of the Russian plan is to make living conditions too harsh to survive in winter and thus provoke a new wave of migration. The second is to psychologically break Ukrainians, to force people to agree to any outcome for the sake of ending the war,” said Andriy Yermak, head of the Office of the President of Ukraine. Professor at the University of Innsbruck Gerhard Mangott believes that on the eve of winter and with its onset, this could become a “terrorist strategy against civilians,” which means that Russia will again and again try to destroy the infrastructure restored by Ukrainians.
Life under blackout conditions
Cooking food on a fire, collecting rainwater and heating with firewood used to be the realities of life only on the front line, in occupied areas or in settlements recently liberated from the “Russian world”. There is a difficult situation right now. So, in the cities of Izyum and Kupyansk, Kharkiv region, many people still live without gas, electricity and water. People are forced to heat their houses with firewood collected from the nearby forest. It is difficult to restore the centralized energy system in such cities, since the scale of destruction is huge, and Russia continues to shell the lost territories.
After October 10, Ukrainians are forced to get used to life with partial power supply everywhere, including in Kyiv. Now the inhabitants of Ukraine have to build work and household affairs around the schedules of power outages. However, the light can be turned off without warning. In this case, blackouts can last up to six hours. This practice will continue at least until Russia stops targeting energy facilities.
Shutdowns reduce the load on the power system and make it possible to carry out the necessary repairs after strikes. Also, schedules are being introduced to even out the balance between produced and consumed energy. This is required after Russia destroys generating capacity or transmission lines. If consumers are not turned off and they use more energy than is available in the system, then it will become out of sync and repairs will take a long time. The shutdowns also save electricity at critical infrastructure facilities – water pumping stations, hospitals, factories and enterprises, where a sudden shutdown can disable expensive equipment. Street lighting will also be reduced.
Ukrainians are urged to prepare power banks, stock up on batteries, candles, warm clothes and thermal underwear. Tips are published on the Internet on how to independently make a power bank for a router, heat a room with a single candle , and heat food without electricity, for example, on a gas burner or even on candles. Residents of Ukraine are advised to stock up on long-term storage and fast food products.
In some cities left without water supply, Ukrainians are lining up for water. In some cases, the water supply could be destroyed intentionally. According to the BBC, this is exactly what happened in Nikolaev. Experts interviewed by journalists said that the pipes could have been damaged by explosives, this was evidenced by the nature of the damage.
Energy experts are asking Ukrainians to consume water and electricity sparingly: replace all light bulbs with energy efficient ones, turn on energy-intensive appliances one by one, limit electricity consumption during peak hours, when it is important to unload the energy system – in the morning from 6:00 to 11:00 and in the evening from 17:00 :00 to 23:00.
“Different regions show different results on different days, but in general, savings range from 5 to 10% on average,” said Volodymyr Kudrytsky, head of the board of the national energy company Ukrenergo. The philosophy of economy, new for most Ukrainians, is being promoted by opinion leaders in social networks and in the media. Several TV channels broadcast by candlelight.
They promise not to turn off the light in houses where critical infrastructure facilities are located. Sometimes they are built right into the building, says Dmitry Sakharuk, head of DTEK. This can be communication equipment, vaccine storage warehouses, providers' servers, water supply and heat supply facilities. However, the residents of these buildings can hardly be envied: the presence of such an object in the house can increase the risks of “arrival”.
Changes await and transport. In order to save electricity on some tram and trolleybus routes, gasoline-powered buses were launched in Kyiv. In Kharkiv, the intervals of tram and metro traffic have been increased.
The Rada also discussed the possibility of transferring some enterprises and organizations to a remote format. According to the deputies, this way it is possible to compensate for the losses associated with air raid alerts on working days. Their damage to GDP was estimated at least at 7.5 billion hryvnia, which is about $203 million.
“It is important to organize the work of both the public and private sectors of the economy remotely during non-working hours and on weekends in such a way as to not only compensate for downtime, but also ensure the production of products necessary for victory,” said Daniil Getmantsev, deputy of the Verkhovna Rada.
Residents of Kiev may be temporarily relocated to other regions if the situation on the energy front becomes critical. The European Union intends to deploy temporary warm shelters for IDPs in Ukraine. And the head of the Ministry for the Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories, Iryna Vereshchuk, urged Ukrainians abroad, if possible, not to return to the country until spring.
Ukrainian energy is more sustainable than Putin hoped
The Ukrainian energy system has a rather high margin of safety, which makes it almost impossible to completely destroy it. “If one generation disappears somewhere, another one picks it up. That is, everything is looped, and we work in a single system. In Soviet times, a power system scheme was built, where everything is set up for similar events that are happening today, ” said Maxim Timchenko, head of the DTEK energy company. According to him, there cannot be "some kind of Armageddon, a situation where everything will be broken and everything will go out."
The Ukrainian energy system is one of the largest in Europe, it has the most extensive system of transmission lines per unit area. Nuclear, thermal and hydroelectric power plants, combined heat and power plants, as well as power plants operating on wind, solar and biofuel power – all of them are connected by main transmission lines.
The power system will also be helped to withstand the overabundance of capacities left over from the Soviet period. At their peak, they produced more than 300 billion kilowatt-hours, which made it possible to provide energy for the military-industrial complex of the USSR. Now there is no such need. Over the past 30 years after the collapse of the USSR, electricity consumption in Ukraine has decreased by almost 2.5 times. But the capacity remains, and the country does not lack electricity generation.
In addition to the general downward trend, fuel demand further declined after the start of active hostilities. The war provoked the outflow of the population and the closure of enterprises, the destruction of infrastructure facilities and the destruction of large industrial facilities, such as Azovstal.
“The fall in natural gas consumption by 40% and electricity consumption by 30% this year made it possible to amortize serious damage from Russian missile strikes on the energy infrastructure,” said Vladimir Omelchenko, director of energy programs at the Razumkov Center.
The growth in the share of nuclear energy has also become an advantage. It now accounts for 56% of electricity generation, since Russia mainly strikes gas-oil and coal-fired generation facilities. South-Ukrainian, Rivne and Khmelnytsky NPPs continue to operate normally. With the exception of the shelling of the latter, Russia has not made any targeted attempts to put the nuclear power plant out of action with missile strikes so far.
CHP is the Achilles' heel of Ukrainian energy
The destruction of the energy infrastructure can leave urban residents without heating. In anticipation of winter, this is the biggest danger. In the cities of Ukraine, there are predominantly centralized heating systems, which means that the production of heat is inextricably linked with the production of electricity. Thermal energy, along with electricity, is generated at combined heat and power plants (CHPs), which are also regularly targeted by Russian strikes.
Time magazine called district heating systems “Ukraine's secret weapon in the green transition,” as they can be easily converted to alternative and more environmentally friendly types of energy, such as biofuels or heat from data centers. This could be cheaper and potentially more energy efficient than a decentralized system of thousands of fossil fuel boilers and boilers, as in many European cities.
But in the conditions of war, it turned out that the advantages turned into disadvantages: a centralized network is much more vulnerable to Russian attacks. Its device is well known to Russian power engineers, so the Kremlin can strike effectively. Not only physical damage to thermal power plants that generate thermal energy, but also large-scale destruction of heat supply pipes can leave an entire district or quarter without heat. When frost sets in, the lack of electricity for several hours can become critical for heating mains – when freezing, the pipes burst. It will be difficult to repair them.
This has already happened in Alchevsk in 2006, when after the accident about 60,000 residents had to heat their homes with electric heaters. A few days later, due to the lack of hot water, the sewerage system also froze.
Such a scenario is possible with the destruction of boiler houses and thermal power plants. The scale of the disaster also directly depends on the ambient temperature. At -5°C, the pipes will retain residual heat for a long time, but at -25°C they will quickly freeze. The lower the temperature, the less time is left for repairs, which also require special equipment.
Supplies of power equipment
The situation in winter will largely depend on the supply of power equipment from abroad. It is critically needed to replace and repair damaged power facilities. First of all, mobile water treatment stations, mobile thermal power plants, alternative fuels, as well as diesel or gas generators are required, said the former Minister for the Development of Communities and Territories of Ukraine Oleksiy Chernyshov. These local backup power installations in winter in many areas can become the main ones. However, they also need a supply of fuel. And here problems arise: allied countries are ready to help Kyiv with devices, but diesel is not included in the supply.
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry reported that they had agreed on the supply of mobile equipment with the authorities or companies from 12 countries, including Italy, France, Lithuania, Finland, Germany and Poland. Spain has confirmed that Madrid will transfer generators for hospitals and ambulances to Ukraine. In total, the country will receive about 600 units of power equipment. This is not much, given that only on the first day of shelling on October 10, 143 objects were damaged, including 10 thermal power plants and 19 electrical substations.
Former Deputy Foreign Minister of Ukraine Olena Zerkal calls the failure of energy equipment the number one problem for Kiev. We need rare and expensive equipment, which is most often not stored in warehouses. Requires at least 25 powerful autotransformers. They are mainly supplied by South Korea. It is very difficult to place an order for such equipment without a queue. It is also difficult to order new parts from manufacturers, which can take anywhere from six months to three years. Therefore, Ukraine asks Western firms to put it at the head of the queue and tries to outbid the necessary equipment from other customers, whose turn of supplies has already come up.
Polish PGE and Tauron, German EON and 50 Hertz, French Schneider Electric and other companies from the USA, Finland, Lithuania and Portugal have been sending transformers, switches, generators, cables and other equipment to Ukraine since spring. But Ukrainian energy company DTEK says it's a drop in the ocean. And they estimate the cost of their equipment to be replaced at about $40 million.
“We have already, unfortunately, used up the stock of equipment that we had in warehouses after the major attacks that began on October 10th. We were able to purchase some equipment. Unfortunately, the cost of equipment is now measured in hundreds of millions of dollars … Now this is a problem for all power engineers, ” said Dmitry Sakharuk, Executive Director of DTEK, after another strike on Ukraine.
Another problem is the compatibility of Soviet equipment in Ukraine with foreign equipment, which is manufactured according to EU standards. It is difficult to find old-style equipment in Europe. Therefore, in Kyiv, Western countries are asked to search their warehouses and provide at least non-working units in order to be dismantled for spare parts. According to Sakharuk, out of 40 transformers that need to be replaced, DTEK has so far managed to get only three.
Additional financial support
Anders Åslund, a senior fellow at the Swedish research organization Stockholm Free World Forum, puts external financial assistance at the top of the list of factors that will allow Ukraine to survive the winter and save energy facilities.
The damage caused to the country's infrastructure since February is estimated in Ukraine at $100 billion. Kiev needs from 3 to $5 billion of foreign aid per month until the end of next year, said IMF director Kristalina Georgieva. Even more – at $ 6 billion – the Atlantic Council estimates this need. This is due to the collapse of Ukraine's GDP by 30-35% this year, which means an even greater reduction in tax revenues.
The United States is now playing the leading role in supporting Ukraine. Congress has passed several aid packages totaling about $50 billion. Of these, more than half is military, the rest is financial and humanitarian aid. Washington also announced its intention to allocate $1.5 billion monthly to support state institutions in Ukraine. The European Union, according to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, is not doing enough. The President of Ukraine in August accused Brussels of delaying the transfer of macro-financial assistance, calling it "either a crime or a mistake." This year, the EU has paid 2.8 billion euros, despite a pledge in May to provide Ukraine with 9 billion euros. In addition, the EU mainly provides assistance to Ukraine in the form of loans, in contrast to the United States, which provides mainly grants.
In Kyiv, they feared that American aid would be reduced next year if Republicans, Biden's opponents, won the majority of seats in the midterm elections to Congress. Representatives of this party on the eve of the elections spoke more often about the need to limit assistance to Ukraine than the Democrats. In November, the Republicans did regain control of the House of Representatives. But how exactly the majority of them will vote is hard to guess.
Many experts consider it important to confiscate the reserves of the Russian Central Bank blocked by the West and transfer them to Ukraine before winter. Ukrainian politicians have repeatedly asked for this. Russian assets worth more than $300 billion were frozen in March as a result of sanctions. This is about half of the volume of all gold and foreign exchange reserves of Russia. However, the European Commissioner for Justice and the Rule of Law, Didier Reynders , proposed not to give these funds, but to return them to Russia if it participates in the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine. Anders Åslund believes that if Russian funds are transferred to Ukraine, the West should control them. But Western financial assistance in general, in his opinion, should be as decentralized as possible, so that small and medium-sized businesses affected by the war could use it in Ukraine.
Electricity import
Another way to provide the population with electricity in the face of the destruction of generating capacities could be the import of electricity. Previously, Ukraine bought it from Belarus and Russia, albeit in small volumes, and stopped after the start of the war. In December 2021, the share of imports was 2.8% of total electricity consumption. In March, Ukraine fully synchronized its network with the European Electricity Transmission System (ENTSO-E), which made it possible to both export and import energy from Europe. Kyiv even started deliveries, but stopped immediately after massive strikes on energy facilities.
At the end of October, the state-owned trader Energy Company of Ukraine (ECU) for the first time in test mode imported electricity from Slovakia. The power was 1 MW. So far, these are just checks, but the head of the ESC called for the early implementation of this tool.
“Imports will make it possible to obtain small volumes of 500-600 MW with a total deficit of over 1.5 GW,” said Yuriy Korolchuk, director of the Ukrainian Institute for Energy Strategies. And the head of the board of Ukrenergo, Volodymyr Kudrytsky, admitted that Ukraine would start receiving electricity from abroad already in the current heating season. At a meeting with the European Commissioner for Energy, Kadri Simson raised the issue of raising the limit to 1,500 MW.
So far, it has not been possible to establish imports from the EU for two reasons. First, ENTSO-E limited the capacity of interstate networks to 500 MW, although technically Ukraine could supply or receive up to 1.7 GW through transmission lines connecting it to the power grid of Romania, Slovakia and Hungary.
Second, importing electricity from Europe would be too expensive for Kyiv. For example, in October, the maximum price per megawatt-hour in Ukraine was less than 80 euros (3,000 hryvnias), and in Hungary more than 260 euros (10,000 hryvnias). Traders will have to sell energy at local prices in Ukraine, but buy much more expensive. Therefore, most likely, Ukraine will start supplying electricity from the EU only in the most critical situation.
Work for prevention
The most reliable way to preserve and protect energy facilities would be to strengthen Ukraine's air defense system. So far, it has only 10% of what is needed, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said . Russia's attacks have already forced the West to reconsider military aid to Kyiv. Thus, the United States promised to transfer 8 NASAMS anti-aircraft missile systems of Norwegian production, the first two have already been sent.
Iranian kamikaze drones, which are difficult to detect with radar, have become a separate problem. Ukraine claims that its air defense systems shot down more than half of them. But, judging by the damage done to the power grid, this is not enough. The Pentagon, in addition to NASAMS, promises to transfer anti-drone countermeasures to Ukraine, including the VAMPIRE (Vehicle-Agnostic Modular Palletized ISR Rocket Equipment) system. It is capable of hitting small quadrocopters such as Mavic, Russian Orlan-10 and Orion, Iranian Mohajer-6 and Shahed, as well as other models. It literally hits with small 70mm rockets, while most anti-drone systems use signal jamming or interference.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that Spain has transferred four Hawk air defense systems and Aspide air defense systems to Ukraine. NATO also promised to send 100 drone jamming stations to Kyiv. This will help make Russian and Iranian-made drones ineffective, Stoltenberg said.
Germany donated the IRIS-T system. So far, only one, but, according to Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal, it turned out to be extremely effective – it hit 9 targets out of 10. Reuters reported that Italy is preparing a package of military assistance to Ukraine, which may include medium-range air defense systems SAMP-T and Aspide, as well as portable air defense systems Stinger. True, Eurosceptics from the 5 Star Movement opposed it, and as a result, the supply issue was frozen. France and Germany have pledged to continue helping. The question is how much these statements will match or diverge from real actions and how quickly deliveries will be made.
Against the backdrop of Russian shelling, even Israel, which previously remained neutral, allowed NATO countries to provide Ukraine with weapons with components made in Israel. We are talking about electro-optics and fire control systems – the UK intends to send them. There is no official confirmation of these data. But it is known that on November 16, Vladimir Zelensky discussed the issue of air defense with Benjamin Netanyahu, whose Likud party won the early parliamentary elections in Israel.
Winter as an advantage for Ukraine
The coming winter has become the main narrative of the Kremlin propaganda. The pro-government media are spreading frightening materials about the population and the army of Ukraine, which will not survive the cold. In fact, winter will be a serious challenge, primarily for the Russian military, which is experiencing serious problems with supply and logistics, according to Pentagon spokesman General Pat Ryder.
First of all, winter will be a serious challenge for the Russian military
The Russians also experienced difficulties with summer clothes. T-shirts, socks, underwear, sneakers and berets were handed over to the front by volunteers, but their efforts were clearly not enough. It was not possible to establish supplies during the eight months of the war, so it is not necessary to expect that the soldiers will receive winter equipment in sufficient quantities.
At the same time, Ukrainian servicemen are much more prepared for the winter season. Their clothing supply chains are much shorter and the logistics are easier. The United States has already donated 50,000 parkas, 4,700 trousers, 39,000 fleece hats, 23,000 pairs of boots, 18,000 pairs of gloves and 6,000 tents to Ukraine. At a meeting of the Ukrainian Defense Contact Group in Ramstein on October 25, several other countries also pledged to provide winter equipment.
Democratic Senator Lindsey Graham compared the situation in which the Russian occupiers found themselves with the Nazi invaders, for whom the harsh winter once became a curse on foreign territory. Under such conditions, Russia may try to freeze hostilities in order to build up more forces by spring.
In the meantime, the Kremlin is trying to split the EU as much as possible and reduce its ability to provide any assistance to Ukraine. Restricting energy supplies to the West has driven up world gas prices, and the blackmail around the end of the grain deal has driven up agricultural prices and could cause famine in the poorest countries. In the context of the energy, food and financial crisis, support for Ukraine is likely to decline. Most likely, this is precisely the true goal of Vladimir Putin, who, during the eight months of the invasion, was unable to achieve the capitulation of Kyiv. The further development and outcome of the war will largely depend on the political will of the West.
The Institute for the Study of War believes that global solidarity and determination will be decisive for the further course of the war. Putin is waiting for the onset of cold weather to see if winter will change the West's stance in supporting Ukraine. If support is reduced, the possibility of a new Russian blitzkrieg may be higher. If aid volumes grow, or at least remain at the same level, then Moscow is likely to reduce its claims and focus on maintaining control of the already conquered territories.