At the summit of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) held in Yerevan, the main events were the demarche of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and the unexpected statement about the war in Ukraine by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. Pashinyan refused to sign the final declaration of the summit and the draft decision on assistance to Yerevan in connection with the Karabakh conflict. Lukashenka connected the fate of the CSTO with the outcome of the war in Ukraine: “If Russia wins, then the CSTO will live, if, God forbid, it does not win, the CSTO will not exist. If Russia collapses, then under the rubble is our place.” Since Belarus will become the next chairman of the CSTO after Armenia, his statement could have important consequences for the activities of the entire structure, political analyst Arkady Dubnov told The Insider:
An important point of the summit, which will have consequences for all the activities of this structure, were the unambiguous provisions expressed by Lukashenka, who made it frankly clear: the CSTO should be used by Belarus, which will chair after Armenia, to confront the West.
They repeat the same thing like a mantra – supposedly the West is concentrating military forces west of the Belarusian borders, supposedly there will be an attack, and the CSTO, they say, is needed by Belarus to respond to these challenges. A couple of weeks ago, Lukashenka accused Armenia of wanting to draw the CSTO into a confrontation with Azerbaijan. Nobody needs this confrontation, and we, they say, are categorically against it.
As for Pashinyan’s demarche, judging by the transcript of Putin’s speech, he emphasized that we are helping each other very intensively, we have a lot of programs for joint activities, military-technical cooperation, training, and so on. We will continue to build up and cooperate, and this is what makes this commission heavier.
Manturov, who heads the relevant commission, is one of the key members of the Russian government, and if he coordinates everything, then the Kremlin attaches great importance to this and will bet on it.