With 2.5 months before the imposition of sanctions against Russian oil products, the European authorities are still not ready for new restrictions and are still too dependent on Russian supplies. This is evidenced by the statistics of the analytical company Vortexa, which was analyzed by Bloomberg.
Since the beginning of November, the European Union and the UK have collectively received almost 50% of all oil products from Russia, although already on February 5, according to the imposed sanctions, they will not be able to buy oil products in Russia at all. A sharp jump in the consumption of Russian oil products occurred in October against the backdrop of strikes at French refineries, since then it has declined, but by the end of November it still remains above the average monthly values since the beginning of the year.
The average volume of supplies of petroleum products to Europe since the beginning of the month is estimated by the agency at 1.34 million barrels per day. Analysts note that the level of dependence on Russian oil products is still too high; if no urgent measures are taken, then consumers will soon face rising prices and a shortage of the most popular oil products, including diesel fuel, naphtha, fuel oil, etc.
Most of the supplies are for diesel fuel – 600 thousand barrels per day (45% of all supplies of petroleum products), in October it was 34%, and the average for the first 10 months was 51%. At the same time, experts expect that in December the upward trend will only continue due to the onset of the peak of the heating season, as well as due to unresolved problems with the search for alternatives. Moreover, December is the last month when traders in Europe's largest diesel futures market (ICE Gasoil, which supplies from storage facilities in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp area) can sell Russian oil products. In January, the sale of Russian oil products at this hub will be completed.
European authorities previously warned about problems with diesel by analysts from the consulting company Wood Mackenzie Ltd. The company predicts diesel stocks on the continent will hit their lowest level in 12 years by early spring, even though Wood Mackenzie Ltd. expects to accumulate reserves until January 2023.