The number of sorties by Russian tactical aircraft over Ukraine has decreased, according to a daily summary of British intelligence.
According to the UK Ministry of Defense, if in March Russian aviation had up to 300 sorties a day, now their number is in the dozens.
The British military believes that Russia could have lost more than 60 aircraft, including the losses of last week – the Su-24M fighter-bomber and the Su-25 attack aircraft.
Planes have become less likely to take off due to the high threat from Ukrainian air defense, worsening weather and flight time restrictions, the report says.
British intelligence believes that the level of Russian ground attacks will be low in bad winter weather conditions due to the fact that ground attack tactics rely on visual identification and unguided munitions.
Experts from the American Institute for the Study of War write that the maneuverability of the Ukrainian military will depend on weather conditions this winter. The ISW notes that winter is the best time for mechanized warfare, and most likely Ukrainian forces are preparing to take advantage of the frozen terrain to move around with greater ease than during the autumn months.
Ukraine's ability to maintain the military initiative and build on the momentum of current operational gains will depend on whether Ukrainian forces continue to conduct active counter-offensive operations in the winter of 2022-2023, the ISW report says.
