The situation on the front line
In the Zaporozhye and Kherson directions , there is an increase in the conduct of radio-technical intelligence (RTR) by the Russian troops, the use of reconnaissance UAVs of the operational-tactical level and reconnaissance aircraft of the Su-24MR type, reports military expert Konstantin Mashovets. The work of forces and means of electronic warfare (EW) was also strengthened.
The Bakhmut direction – the offensive actions of the Russians continue, but in general, they are in the mode of waiting for compensation for losses, the main role of which is now played not by echelons with equipment, but by KamAZ columns with mobilized people, or paddy wagons with prisoners, writes Ukrainian military-political expert Alexander Kovalenko. According to him, the pressure has not decreased, but the Russian army has exhausted its potential to advance at least a hundred or two meters near Bakhmut. And the reason for this is the loss of combat capability of most of the Russian units.
According to Mashovets, in the Kurdyumovka region, the Russian command deployed at least two additional battalions, their task is to break through to the Belaya Gora-Kleshchievka line together with the Wagner PMC. In this way, they will be able to create favorable conditions for themselves to develop a further offensive, both towards Konstantinovka and towards Ivanovskoye and Bakhmut (from the south).
At the same time, the Ukrainian army, despite the advantage in manpower, does not have the resources for a distracting strike, similar to those that it took during the battles for the Lysychansk-Severodonetsk agglomeration, diverting the attention of the Russian Federation with attacks in the Kherson and Kharkov directions. In fact, now Bakhmut no longer represents a strategic value, except for a symbolic one after a series of autumn victories of the Ukrainian side. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are forced to spend a large amount of resources and manpower, trying to hold this sector of the front and fighting at attrition.
Svatovskoye direction – according to the military analyst Def Mon, the Armed Forces of Ukraine repelled attacks in the area of Ploshchanka and Belogorovka. However, communication between Svatovo and Kremennaya was interrupted, writes Mashovets.
“The withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in these places to the near approaches to Severodonetsk-Lysichansk, as well as the advance towards Starobilsk, in all likelihood, will simply level the enemy’s efforts to the south and create a threat of “cutting off” the northern part of the entire Russian grouping of troops deployed in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions of Ukraine. That is why in the Kremennaya area, the enemy is stubbornly trying to counterattack towards Torsky, Zarechny (i.e., towards Liman) and southwest of Svatovo, ”writes Mashovets.
In the Donetsk direction, according to the channel of the Russian military commander Semyon Pegov WarGonzo, Russian troops are advancing in the region of Novomikhailovka and Maryinka from the south, Russian artillery is working in Avdeevka and Krasnogorovka.
Russia builds up troops in Belarus
The total number of Russian troops on the territory of Belarus may soon reach the level of 20-22 thousand servicemen, Mashovets writes . Now this figure is 10.5 thousand servicemen, it is gradually growing. According to the expert, there is an intensive transfer of manpower to the joint Russian-Belarusian "combat training centers", where the process of active combat training of both Russian and Belarusian troops will be launched. Mashovets also notes that the intensive movement of manpower is proceeding at a speed significantly exceeding the pace of the transfer of weapons and military equipment. However, according to him, this is not enough for the deployment of active hostilities.
On December 3, it was reported that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu arrived in Belarus for talks with Alexander Lukashenko and Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin. According to Lukashenka, both Belarusian and Russian "defenders of the Union State" will be able to repel any aggression after the joint training of units. “We, as a single group, a single army, are preparing today. Everyone around knows about it. We didn't hide it. And in the modern world it is impossible to hide it,” Lukashenka said.
Mutual firing. The blow of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on the Starokramatorsk machine-building plant
On December 5, a series of explosions occurred at the Starokramatorsk Machine-Building Plant. Pro-Russian Telegram channels report a new strike on the plant, which is allegedly related to the fact that a warehouse of ammunition for the Armed Forces of Ukraine could be located there. The previous blow to the plant was inflicted on December 3.
The head of the military administration of Krivoy Rog, Alexander Vilkul, said that on the night of December 5, “several powerful explosions” sounded. It was reported that after midnight, the Russians fired three missiles at Krivoy Rog, hitting an industrial enterprise, killing one worker and injuring three others. Later it became known that the RF Armed Forces hit the ArcelorMittal Krivoy Rog plant, the head of Krivoy Rog spoke about this industrial enterprise.
Explosions also took place in Donetsk at night. According to Russian media, the Armed Forces of Ukraine fired on the occupied city, arrivals were also in its center – around 03:00.
In the LPR, HIMARS shelled the occupied settlements of Alchevsk and Kremennaya. The so-called LPR reported the death of 10 people in Alchevsk. One of the arrivals fell on the hostel.
Attacks on air bases in Diaghilevo and Engels – 700 km from the border with Ukraine
Explosions occurred simultaneously at two military airfields in Russia. According to Russian media, at the aircraft parking lot at the airfield near Ryazan (Dyagilevo), three people died and five were injured as a result of the explosion. The Russian state-run RIA Novosti reported that it was a fuel truck explosion. According to RIA, the aircraft was damaged as a result of the incident. Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 missile carriers are stationed at this base. Almost simultaneously with the Ryazan explosion, another one thundered at the air base of strategic aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces in Engels, Saratov region. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, "as a result of the fall and explosion of fragments of jet drones at Russian airfields, the skin of the hull of two aircraft was slightly damaged." Kyiv has not officially claimed responsibility for the attacks.
The pro-Russian Telegram channel "Rybar" reports that "with a high degree of probability" sabotage was carried out at strategic facilities. Another Russian propaganda publication, Ridovka, reported that both airfields were attacked by drones launched from the Kharkiv region. In this case, the drone had to overcome about 700 kilometers to Engels. If the new Ukrainian drones do indeed have a range of 1,000 km, then all Russian positions from the Finnish border to Dagestan are within reach. Shortly before the strike, Ukroboronprom announced a new stage of testing a secret UAV with a range of up to 1000 km, but no one saw it, there is no evidence of its existence.
The Gray Zone channel associated with PMC Wagner, as well as the Russian military commander Alexander Kots, write that the attack could have been carried out using Tu-141 Strizh jet UAVs, a reusable Soviet operational-tactical reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicle with a flight range of up to 1000 km.
Russian military observer Ilya Kramnik notes that in this way the drone had to fly through several air defense zones, and compared this with the flight of 18-year-old German Matthias Rust, who crossed the border of the USSR in 1987 and landed his small light-engine Cessna-172 Skyhawk aircraft. near the walls of the Kremlin on Vasilyevsky Spusk. Rust's flight showed the disorganization of the work of the Soviet air defense, dozens of generals and air defense officers lost their ranks and positions, and two even received prison terms.
The exact consequences of the strikes are still unknown. In Engels, the arrival of the UAV, apparently, did not have serious consequences. This follows from a comparison of satellite images of the airfield for December 5 after the impact and for December 4 the day before.
In Dyagilevo, the Tu-22M3 was probably damaged as a result of the impact. Judging by the photo, the bomber could have been equipped with the Kh-22 missile. If it had exploded as a result of the impact, it would have caused significant damage to aircraft parked in open areas nearby. The Ukrainian media also write that the Tu-95MS was damaged, and the missile carriers of the 95th project are no longer being produced, so their loss significantly affects the Russian Aerospace Forces. There is no confirmation that the Tu-95 was damaged yet.
Aviation Colonel Viktor Alksnis writes that long-range aircraft are based at both airfields, which are carriers of strategic nuclear weapons and are part of the nuclear triad of the Russian Federation – it includes ground, sea and air-based nuclear forces. That is, the strike was delivered on the aviation component of the nuclear deterrence forces of the Russian Federation.
“The airfields in Engels and Dyagilevo are among such critically important military facilities, the failure of which will lead to the disruption of the retaliatory actions of Russia's nuclear forces. And if we follow the letter of the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation, then these strikes are the basis for a retaliatory strike with nuclear weapons, at least tactical ones, against strategic objects of Ukraine. First of all, in decision-making centers, bridges across the Dnieper, tunnels and transport infrastructure.”
The pro-Russian Telegram channel "Military Informant" notes that the strikes on airfields show the unsuitability of the Russian command, which did not draw conclusions after Ukraine's successful attacks on other Russian airfields.
“These people were taught nothing by Saki in the Crimea, or by Veretye in the Pskov region, or even by an attempt to strike Shaikovka with drones, where the Tu-22M3s are based. That is, the trend of strikes against the airfields of the Aerospace Forces, and even more so by aviation with long-range missiles, was obvious. Until now, airfields, even with strategic aviation, cannot cover air defense systems with installed radars with AFAR (for example, Pantsir-SM) just to counter the small commercial drones that Ukrainian saboteurs use to attack targets on Russian territory almost from the very beginning of hostilities.
Dmitry Peskov said that Vladimir Putin was informed about the state of emergency in the Saratov and Ryazan regions. Explosions at the Engels airfield were also commented on by Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine.
“The earth is round. This was discovered by Galileo. It is a pity that astronomy was not studied in the Kremlin, preferring court astrologers. Then they would know: if you launch something very often into the airspace of other countries, sooner or later unknown aircraft will return to the place of departure.”
Mass missile attack on Ukraine
After reports of strikes on two Russian airfields, Russia launched a massive missile attack on Ukraine. Cruise missiles were launched from the Black and Caspian Seas and from strategic bombers. Propagandists said it was a "retribution strike", but military experts had previously warned that the Russian Federation was preparing for a large-scale missile attack.
An air alert was announced in all regions of the country. After the explosions in the Kyiv region, there were problems with electricity, Odessa was partially de-energized, residential buildings were destroyed in Zaporozhye. Explosions were heard in Cherkasy, Vinnitsa, Kirovohrad, Nikolaev and Odessa regions. It is also reported about "arrivals" in Odessa, Nikolaev and Uman.
As a result of a massive missile attack, four people were killed, a total of 70 missiles flew in, President Volodymyr Zelensky said .
“The main result is that 70 Russian missiles arrived, most were shot down. But, unfortunately, we still cannot ensure complete safety for our sky – there were several hits. Unfortunately, there are casualties… As of this hour, there are four on the list of those who died from Russian strikes.”
On December 5, Russian shelling of Ukraine hooked even Moldova – a Russian rocket fell on the territory of the country, but did not explode, said Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Galushchenko, who discussed the incident with Moldovan Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Spinu.
According to the command of the Ukrainian Air Force, out of more than 70 missiles that arrived, 60 were shot down.
“According to preliminary information, the launch of 38 N-101/N-555 cruise missiles was carried out with eight Tu-95MS strategic aircraft from the Caspian Sea and Volgodon of the Rostov Region. The enemy also fired 22 Caliber cruise missiles from the ships of the Black Sea Fleet. In addition, Tu-22m3 long-range bombers with three Kh-22 cruise missiles, as well as Su-35 fighters with six Kh-59 guided missiles and one Kh-31R, attacked Ukraine from the Black Sea.
The missiles were shot down by the forces of anti-aircraft missile units, aviation, mobile fire groups of the Ukrainian Air Force and other components of the Defense Forces. A video has been released showing a cruise missile being destroyed by a German-supplied Gepard SPAAG.
Significant loss of equipment
A video of the destruction of a Ka-52 helicopter of the Russian Aerospace Forces with a well-deserved crew also appeared, according to the pro-Russian Telegram channel Fighterbomber. "The crew of the Beard was the most productive crew of the group." They were the best of the best. Legendary. 6 Orders of Courage for two. Today they are gone. Both. The crew was presented to the highest award and the highest rank of the Russian Federation. To the golden stars of Heroes. Posthumously".
Apparently, the helicopter was shot down with the help of the S-300, writes the analytical project OSINTtechnical.
Another important loss for Russia on December 5 was the downed Su-24M in the vicinity of Bakhmut.
Deliveries of weapons and military equipment to Ukraine – including modified HIMARS
The United States has modified HIMARS rocket launchers for further transfer to Ukraine. Thanks to the modification, Ukraine will not be able to launch missiles on Russian territory, according to The Wall Street Journal. Since June, the US has supplied Ukrainian forces with 20 HIMARS launchers and a large number of satellite-guided missiles with a range of nearly 50 miles (80 km).
On December 3, Lithuania also handed over to Ukraine two more repaired PzH2000 self-propelled howitzers and 155 mm caliber ammunition, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports .