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An American “foreign policy analyst” who wrote that the United States does not need a Ukrainian victory turned out to be a statistician from the Census Bureau

December 13, 2022
in Daily News
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RIA "Novosti" published an article under the heading "The United States admitted that it is disadvantageous for Ukraine's victory." Itsays :

“America does not need a victory for the Kyiv regime in the Ukraine conflict, as it could lead to a nuclear war with Russia, with which Washington wants to have a stable relationship,” writes analyst Brian Clark in an article for 19FortyFive.

“In the words of Biden, America wants stable relations from Russia. However, the victory of Ukraine will make this almost impossible, ”the author of the material emphasized.

As Clark noted, the goals of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, which consist in the complete return of the country's territories, no longer coincide with the goals of Washington. Russia has warned that this could lead to the use of nuclear weapons to protect its lands, and the Biden administration wants to avoid this.

The analyst argues that the US needs to rethink its current strategy of supporting Kyiv and make sure this conflict does not escalate into a nuclear war.

Clark suggested that a fully restored Ukraine was not worth the risk of nuclear war, and argued that cooperation and a productive relationship with Moscow were more valuable than a fully sovereign Ukraine.

He urged the US to start putting pressure on Kyiv to lower its expectations and be more open to peace talks with Russia.”

The content of the same article by Clark is retold by RT, Gazeta.ru, the REN TV channel, Izvestia, Lenta.ru, Tsargrad and others.

It is immediately evident that Clark's article is nothing more than a debatable opinion. The same site 19fortyfive.com published , for example, an article by James Holmes “Is Russia close to using nuclear weapons in Ukraine?”, where the author proves that this is extremely unlikely.

But perhaps the most interesting thing is who is this analyst who calls for the sake of saving humanity from a nuclear war not to support Ukraine. According to the tradition of American journalism, publications provide published materials with brief biographical information about the authors. About the same James Holmes, for example, it is written:

“James Holmes is the J.C. Wylie Chair of Naval Strategy at the Naval War College. He has served as an instructor in the School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Georgia. A former U.S. Navy Surface Forces officer, he was the last gunnery officer in history to open fire with a battleship's large guns in anger; this happened during the first Gulf War in 1991. In 1994, he received the Naval War College Foundation Award as the best graduate in his class. Among his books is "Red Star Over the Pacific," Atlantic Monthly's Best Book of 2010 and a Recommended Reading List for Navy Professionals. General James Mattis < US Secretary of Defense 2017-2019. The Insider considers it 'worrying'."

What about Brian Clarke? That's what:

“Brian Clark is a foreign policy analyst who studies grand American strategy. His work has been published in The National Interest and The American Conservative .

The publication did not find it necessary to report anything else about this author. In The American Conservative we find two of his publications. The first, dated August 2019, criticizes Democratic Congressman Joaquin Castro, a vocal opponent of Donald Trump; Clark compares Castro to Mussolini. The second, released in November 2019, is titled Blame American Incompetence for Russia-China Rapprochement.

Another publication mentioned in the memo, The National Interest is a magazine with a glorious tradition, which at one time published The End of History? Francis Fukuyama, but then bought by the Nixon Center and under the leadership of the pro-Russian political scientist Dmitry Simes, the former anchor of the Russian First Channel, turned into a publication, one of the authors of which was Maria Butina before her arrest and where in 2020 an article by Vladimir Putin about the lessons was published Second World War. Three of Clark's articles have been published in this magazine, the first in March 2020. Biographical information is as stingy as in other publications.

It seems that analyst Clarke appeared out of nowhere three years ago. His Twitter account, where you can find links to his publications, was created on October 31, 2022. Geneva is indicated as a place of residence, but it is not clear which one: in addition to the well-known Swiss city, there are two American cities with the same name, in the states of New York and Illinois. About himself, Clark writes: "I work constantly in the field of finance, a hobby is a big strategy." And the only thing that reveals the identity of the account owner is information about education: he studied economics at George Mason University, as well as mathematics at the University of Delaware.

Using this data, it's easy to find the amateur strategist's LinkedIn page, where he says the following about himself:

“I do mathematical statistics in the Decadal Statistical Research Division of the Census Bureau. The Decadal Statistical Research Division is responsible for developing the mathematical and statistical methods for designing and conducting the US Census.

I have over 5 years of experience in applied econometrics and programming. Approximately 80 percent of my workload is related to my personal research program, which includes data preparation, model development and diagnostics, and written and oral presentation of results to technical and non-technical audiences. The bulk of my research since 2013 has focused on predictive modeling of discrete outcomes and assessing the risk associated with model error. Classification and regression trees, hierarchical linear models, and multinomial logits were used as models < those who do not know what these are can inquire here . — The Insider >.

The rest of my work consists of providing ad hoc statistical support, which often includes cleaning and processing many original data files, providing descriptive statistics for new files, running routine statistical inference tests, peer review of statistical documents, and interpreting and visualizing data for technical and non-technical audiences. . The data files I process daily often exceed 1 billion observations.”

There is not a word about a foreign policy hobby. However, Clark still has a political science education: at the University of Delaware, he received a bachelor's degree in history and political science. But there is no experience in this area.

It seems that the Kremlin propagandists in the United States have not found a more authoritative specialist who would adhere to a point of view that is beneficial to them.

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