The Bakhmut direction remains the hottest point on the front. The pro-Russian Telegram channel "Rybar" writes that the assault detachments of the PMC Wagner broke through the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut. According to these data, in the Bakhmut (Artemovsky) area, Russian units have established full control over the Champagne Winery and the Siniat plant. To the southeast, fighting is going on near the waste sorting plant and on Fyodor Maksimenko Street. Fisher says that assault teams are also advancing to the northeast. Several strongholds of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were occupied near the village of Podgorodnoye.
At the same time, the Ukrainian military reports that Russian troops are unable to break into the city. They told about this in a video published in the Telegram channel "Operational ZSU".
“Cossacks, rumors are spreading in the media that Bakhmut has been handed over, someone has run somewhere, someone has captured someone. A few words for our citizens: no one has fled anywhere, we are in Bakhmut, we are holding Bakhmut, no one has surrendered him. The orcs are coming in, we're holding them back. We beat, but they still climb, and we Bakhmut are not going to give up.
Def Mon publishes a map of the advance of the Russian military in the Bakhmut region over the past three months, which shows that despite fierce fighting, only two villages were captured.
PMC Wagner, according to WarGonzo, are storming Donetsk Belogorovka. Also fierce fighting in the city of Soledar. On the northern sector of the Donetsk front, Russian troops are trying to advance in the Yuryevka area.
The Telegram channel of the Russian expert of the Center for Military-Political Journalism Boris Rozhin publishes an infographic of the Wagner PMC offensive and the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the strip from Popasnaya to Artemovsk for the period from May to December 2022.
Both opposing sides have stepped up in the Luhansk direction , according to WarGonzo. With the support of artillery, the Russian army attacked Stelmahovka. Also, assault actions are taking place in the Makeevka area. The armed forces of the Russian Federation are trying to push the Ukrainian army to the right bank of the Zherebets River. In turn, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to move towards Lysichansk from Belogorovka.
East of Seversk, Russian troops attack in the Verkhnekamenskoye area.
On December 12, in the evening summary of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, it was noted that Russian troops were concentrating their efforts in the offensive in the Liman and Zaporozhye directions , but without specifying specific settlements. Russian attempts to advance in the direction from Kremennaya to Liman have been reported by various Russian sources for some time, but the Ukrainian General Staff has only now confirmed this.
In the suburbs of Melitopol, in the village of Konstantinovka, an automobile bridge was blown up , which will somewhat complicate the supply of the city from the Donetsk region. According to the pro-Russian Telegram channel “Military Informant”, publishing a video of the undermined bridge, one of the pillars was blown up, over which the roadway sank significantly, but complete destruction was avoided.
This incident may also indirectly indicate the preparation of the Ukrainian offensive in the Zaporozhye direction.
Russian forces continue to attempt to encircle Avdiivka. Deepstate reports heavy fighting in the Kamenka area with the use of heavy armored vehicles and TOS "Solntsepyok".
On the evening of December 12, reports began to appear about the shelling of the city of Klintsy, Bryansk region, located near the border with the Chernihiv region of Ukraine. Bryansk Governor Alexander Bogomaz said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces fired a missile that was destroyed by Russian air defense systems, but its fragments fell into the territory of the industrial zone in Klintsy.
“There were no casualties or damage. Operational services are working on the spot, ”he wrote on Telegram .
Klintsy is located 60 km from the border with Ukraine. Military unit No. 12721 is located in the city. According to the Military Informant Telegram channel, the strike was delivered by a Tochka-U OTRK missile, which hit the territory of the military unit’s equipment park. From the force of the explosion of the warhead of the rocket, the pit machine MDK-3 even turned over.
However, judging by the published footage, no really serious damage was inflicted.
Ukrainian troops attacked Gorlovka in the "DPR", which is located 50 kilometers from Donetsk. Ivan Prikhodko, the Russian-appointed “mayor” of the city, wrote on his Telegram channel that the Armed Forces of Ukraine fired at the Gorlovka Stirol plant with 155 mm caliber shells.
Ukraine will still receive Patriot systems
The United States is preparing to transfer Patriot missile defense systems to Ukraine, which could be announced as early as this week. This was reported by CNN with reference to two US officials and a senior administration official.
The plan, which was developed by the US Department of Defense, still needs to be approved by the head of the Pentagon, Lloyd Austin, after which it will be sent to Biden for signature. All interlocutors told CNN that such an approval is pending. It has not yet been reported how many air defense systems will be transferred to Kyiv.
Ukraine has repeatedly urged the United States to send a Patriot against the backdrop of constant Russian missile attacks on energy infrastructure. The Biden administration was rebuffed due to logistical problems and the difficulty in maintaining the plant. The opinion of the White House, according to one of the CNN interlocutors, has changed "the reality of what is happening on the ground." Earlier, Germany and Poland refused to supply these complexes to Kyiv, but their deployment on the eastern border of Poland itself will begin in the near future.
Ukraine is running out of missiles for the Buk
The stocks of ammunition and spare parts for the S-300 air defense systems and the Buk air defense system used by Ukrainian troops are depleted, and it is impossible to buy new ones, the Financial Times writes . According to these data, the Ukrainian military has to fire two missiles from its air defense systems in order to increase the chances of intercepting Russian missiles. At the same time, Kyiv cannot purchase new ammunition, since they are produced exclusively in Russia. It is difficult to find additional available stocks on the world market, except for the batch received from Slovakia earlier.
According to the newspaper, Ukrainian troops received from the West 30 Gepard anti-aircraft self-propelled guns, as well as several modern IRIS-T and NASAMS systems, but Kiev needs "hundreds" of such weapons due to depletion of stocks.
Shells from 40 years ago in Russia
Meanwhile, Russia, due to the high intensity of the use of artillery, is forced to use 40-year-old shells. According to Reuters, citing a senior US military official, these shells have a high failure rate. The official noted that Russia's use of old stocks comes with certain risks: "In other words, you load ammunition, cross your fingers and hope that they will fire, or when they land, that they will explode."
Given the same intensity of fire and no supplies from other countries – notably Iran and North Korea – the Pentagon estimates that Russia will run out of all usable munitions by early 2023.
Estonia: this war will not end quickly
Although Russia has lost a huge amount of weapons and people in Ukraine, the country’s armed forces will have enough reserves and people for at least another year, Margo Grosberg, head of the intelligence center of the Estonian Defense Forces, said , analyzing the losses and reserves of the Russian Armed Forces at a briefing at the Estonian Ministry of Defense.
“Unfortunately, it looks like this war will not end quickly,” Grosberg said.
According to him, since February 24, Russia has lost about 1,400 tanks, which is a “colossal figure” numerically, but in percentage terms, given Russian reserves, this is not so much: “As of today, there are about 9,000 tanks in Russian bases, not the most modern and new, but still tanks. Based on the fact that three tanks can be made into one [usable], then simple mathematics says that Russia has a minimum of 3000 tanks. This is a very large number and poses a threat not only to Ukraine, but also to its neighboring countries.” The situation is similar with Russian armored vehicles, the colonel added.
According to him, Russia also lost about 500 different artillery systems, which is only 10% of the weapons systems available in Russia at the beginning of the war.
According to Grosberg, the situation is similar with the ammunition that Russia tried to buy in North Korea and Iran, also adopting Belarusian ammunition: “According to our estimates, before the war in Russia there were about 17 million pieces of ammunition, of which 10 million were used up, – he said. – At the end of the summer, the consumption of ammunition was very high. There were days when 20,000 to 60,000 [artillery] shots were fired, that's an insane amount."
Expert on defense policy and the military-industrial complex Pavel Luzin, assessing the data cited by various sources, in an interview with The Insider noted that Ukraine, in the end, will completely switch to Western systems, and will also inevitably receive Western fighters to protect its skies. As for Russia, there is a shortage of shells.
“In terms of armaments: quantity is not equal to quality. Russia can have as many ancient tanks as it wants at storage bases, but almost all the tanks modernized since 2009 have either been lost by Russia, or they have been damaged and are being repaired, or they are close to running out of engines and barrels.
About the work of shell factories in several shifts – this is not visible. There is more imitation. This is especially true of the main calibers. There is a shortage of shells in Russia and it cannot be replenished quickly. In addition, artillery also has the problem of barrel wear.
As for missiles, Russia has some stock. Maybe several hundred missiles with a range of over 300 km. And there is their production in the amount of ~ 225 per year of all types (this is an estimate). There is also the production of missiles with a range of up to 300 km, Kh-59, Kh-35. But before February 24, Russia had about 3,500 missiles with a range of over 300 km. So Russia is depleted much faster than it is recovering. In addition, dependence on imported equipment and components also takes place.”
Checking the combat readiness of the Armed Forces in Belarus
In Belarus, on behalf of Alexander Lukashenko, a sudden check of the combat readiness of the Armed Forces of the republic has begun . The verification is carried out under the direction of the State Secretariat of the Security Council. The troops, as the press service of the country's Ministry of Defense reported, will have to advance to the designated areas as soon as possible, implement their engineering equipment, organize security and defense, and build bridge crossings across the Neman and Berezina rivers. At the moment, the movement of military equipment and personnel is planned, as well as a temporary restriction of the movement of civilian transport on certain roads and terrain. The Neman and Berezina rivers are not located near the border with Ukraine.
Read also The Insider's summary of December 12: “ Video from Avdiivka destroyed by the Russian Federation, an attempt to encircle Bakhmut, Slovak MiG-29s for Ukraine. What's going on at the front ."