The Russian ruble during trading on Wednesday, December 21, broke through several psychologically important marks at once. For the first time since May 2022, the Russian currency fell below the level of 70 rubles per dollar, the euro exchange rate exceeded 75 rubles, and the yuan – 10 rubles. This is evidenced by trading data on the Moscow Exchange.
At 10:15 am Moscow time, the daily high for the dollar was 70.67 rubles, for the euro – 75.01 and 10.1 for the Chinese yuan. The Russian currency is rapidly falling for the third trading day in a row: on Friday, December 16, the dollar fluctuated in the range of 64.4-64.8 rubles, for one euro they gave 69-69.2 rubles, and for the yuan – 9.2-9 .27 rubles.
The collapse of the rate began without any specific news background, this factor is noted even by some analysts. “On Monday, the dollar exchange rate without clear news showed the sharpest growth since the beginning of July, while trading activity jumped sharply,” says Yegor Zhilnikov, chief analyst at Promsvyazbank's economic and sectoral analysis department, for example. In his opinion, the key factor for a new round of depreciation of the national currency is associated with a reduction in Russia's oil and gas revenues due to the mechanism of the "ceiling" of oil prices, which was adopted by a coalition of Western countries.
Zhilnikov names the growth of geopolitical risks and the seasonal demand of the population for currency among the secondary factors for the growth of the exchange rate. Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa-Bank, also says that the collapse of the exchange rate on Monday came as a surprise to the market. “The sharp depreciation of the ruble on Monday came as a surprise, as the second half of the month is traditionally the period of tax payments, when exporters usually increase the supply of foreign currency in the foreign exchange market,” she notes . Another factor is the fall in export prices for Russian Urals oil. If in November the average price per Russian barrel was $66, then in December it dropped to $56 per barrel.
A weak ruble is positive for the Russian budget and exporters, who will be able to stabilize their financial flows, but a high exchange rate may become a problem for increasing the supply of goods to Russia, including through “parallel import” channels.