The Russians set a record for the volume of gold purchases in 2022 and even exceeded the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance. This is evidenced by the data on sales of the largest Russian banks, which were collected by Vedomosti. According to the publication, 5 out of 13 systemically important banks in 2022 were able to sell a volume that exceeded the annual forecast of the Ministry of Finance – 57 tons of gold.
We are talking about sales statistics of Sberbank, VTB, Promsvyazbank (PSB), Tinkoff Bank and Moscow Credit Bank (MKB). The total sales across the entire market turned out to be even higher: according to Oksana Lukicheva, a commodity market analyst at Otkritie Investments, the total sales of gold by banks in 2022 lie in the range of 64-67 tons. The Ministry of Finance predicted that by the end of 2022, the total sales of the precious metal would be in the region of 40-50 tons. In 2021, the Ministry of Finance estimated the total sales of physical gold to Russians at 6 tons.
The main reason for the growth is the lack of real alternatives for investments, as well as tax incentives that the Russian authorities introduced in 2022. Now Russians do not pay VAT on purchases and personal income tax, the latter benefit is valid until the end of 2023. Analysts note that Russian investors and premium clients of Russian banks have no serious investment alternatives: the Russian stock market is not attractive, buying real estate against the backdrop of mass relocation of Russians is becoming an unobvious investment, and investing in foreign assets and currencies is associated with risks.
Banks do not disclose income from the sale of gold, and some do not publish any statistics on gold sales at all. However, taking into account the price of gold, which averaged 3,983 rubles per gram in 2022, the five banks were able to sell it for about 200 billion rubles. The sales leader was the state bank VTB, which sold 30 tons of gold, in second place is Sberbank, which sold about 18 tons of bullion and about 2 tons of investment gold coins, followed by MCB and PSB, which sold about 4 tons. Tinkoff Bank sold a little less than a ton, but even this figure exceeded the bank's forecasts.
Market participants believe that the increased demand for gold among the population will continue in 2023, as for many Russians investing in gold is an alternative to investing in foreign currencies of “unfriendly countries”. However, these investments are associated with a lot of difficulties: the real profit from the resale of gold can be made if the ruble falls sharply. In addition, the storage of gold is fraught with risks – any visual flaw instantly reduces its market value, while banks, as a rule, are ready to buy back the bars at a significant discount, which ranges from 15-25%.