The situation at the front
Zaporozhye direction. The Russian army, with the help of artillery, attacked the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Stepnoy, trying to reach an important section of the road leading to Orekhovo, writes the WarGonzo project. To the southeast of Stepnoye, Russian forces tried to advance towards Malaya Tokmachka, where there is also an important section of the frontline road. Artillery of the Russian Federation struck at Gulyai-Pole and Poltavka. Z-channels report about the capture of the village of Malye Shcherbaki by the Russian troops and the battles for neighboring Shcherbaki to the west of Orekhovo. Earlier it was reported about the capture of Lobkove to the east of Kamenskoe.
RIA Novosti, citing a member of the council of the occupation administration of the region, Vladimir Rogov, writes that the fighting in the Zaporozhye region has intensified almost along the entire front line.
Donetsk direction. Russian troops attacked Ukrainian positions in the area of Paraskoveevka and Avdeevka. On the western outskirts of Marinka, Russian forces are pushing the Ukrainian Armed Forces and advancing in the Vodiane area.
Bakhmut direction. To the south of Bakhmut, from the direction of Kurdyumovka, the Wagner PMC is attacking the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the direction of Dyleevka. To the north, the military of the Russian Federation is storming the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Belaya Gora. The Wagnerites are trying to get to Konstantinovka, through which the Ukrainian garrison in Bakhmut is being supplied. The command center of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is located in Konstantinovka, the city is also called the “south gate of Kramatorsk”.
The Ministry of Defense confirmed the capture of Kleshchievka in the south of Bakhmut. On January 19, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of Wagner PMC, announced the capture of the village. After the capture of Kleshchievka, the Wagnerites opened the way to Bakhmut from the south. Now they are trying to advance on the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut, but, as WarGonzo writes, this is more likely a distraction of enemy forces. Most likely, they will try to take Bakhmut into the ring. PMC "Wagner" attacks Krasnaya Gora and Blagodatnoe. To the east of Seversk, Russian troops are trying to advance towards Verkhnekamenskoe.
Lugansk direction. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are attacking the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of Belogorovka and are trying to advance from Zhitlovka towards Terny. The Armed Forces of Ukraine, in turn, are conducting offensive operations on Kuzemovka. Since there are no settlements behind this village and an open area begins, this is a convenient way to Svatovo from the northwest.
Losses in the battles for Bakhmut
The German Federal Intelligence Service (BND) is concerned about the high losses of the Ukrainian army in the battles for Bakhmut, reports Der Spiegel. Representatives of the foreign intelligence service informed German politicians at a secret meeting in the Bundestag that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are losing "three-digit numbers of soldiers" every day in battles near Bakhmut, the newspaper claims. The capture of Bakhmut by Russia "will have serious consequences", as it will allow Russian troops to advance deep into Ukraine, writes Der Spiegel.
The intelligence also stated that the Russian army operated near Bakhmut with "special cruelty." The briefing said that Russia is currently throwing soldiers forward like cannon fodder, and that high casualties in its own armed forces apparently did not play a role in Russia's war tactics. The Ukrainian side has not yet commented on this information.
Ruslan Leviev, an expert at the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) investigative project, doubts the reliability of reports of high losses in the Ukrainian army. He spoke about this in the stream The Insider:
We do not rely on reports from only one source. And so far we have not seen any other messages in favor of this version. Moreover, some foreign journalists have been present in Bakhmut all this time. I think that if there were catastrophic losses, they would have noticed corresponding activity in the form of ambulances, in terms of taking out the wounded and the dead, activity near hospitals and morgues. No one has reported anything of the sort. In principle, from what we know from communication with military commanders, journalists and experts, there were no catastrophic losses, as far as we know.
Both Prigozhin and his publications showed video footage after the capture of Soledar, where the bodies of the killed soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were visible, but there were no hundreds of bodies there. Yes, the picture looked impressive – there were several dozen bodies, but there was not some kind of off-scale. Maybe there could have been catastrophic losses, but we don’t see objective data on which we could rely and say: “Yes, it was like that.” Here we believe that the losses were much higher than the pro-Russian Wagner group, primarily because the Wagner group sent its assault attacks of mercenaries, in fact it was a trench war. Such fighters were quickly laid down with the help of machine guns, so the losses were large, and we saw such shots from drones when there was a whole field with trenches, completely littered with corpses.
50 thousand Wagnerians
According to British military intelligence, up to 50,000 people are under the command of Wagner PMC in Ukraine, the British Ministry of Defense reports in a daily review of the situation in Ukraine. According to the British Ministry of Defense, the Wagner PMC has become "a key component of the Ukrainian campaign."
John Kirby, coordinator of strategic communications at the US National Security Council, made a similar assessment last December. Then he said that, according to his estimates, 40 of the 50 thousand fighters of the Wagner group were former prisoners.
Arms deliveries
During the negotiations at the Ramstein air base, NATO countries could not agree on the supply of German Leopard 2 tanks to Kiev. As the head of the German Defense Ministry, Boris Pistorius, said , the countries did not come to a consensus on the supply. He stressed that this is not due to the fact that Germany is allegedly blocking the decision on supplies. “There are good reasons for the delivery, there are good reasons against it,” he said.
At the same time, the head of the German Ministry of Defense promised that a decision on the supply would be "made as soon as possible."
At a meeting earlier, the Netherlands said it was ready to help pay for the Leopard 2 tanks that other countries would send to Ukraine: "That's certainly what we're willing to do." Also, the Netherlands will consider the possibility of supplying F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, if such a request comes from the Kiev government.
The Czech Republic and Slovakia have said they are ready to transfer Leopard 2 tanks received from Germany to Ukraine, the German newspaper FAZ reports , citing sources in diplomatic circles. Earlier, these countries, within the framework of the “ring exchange” program, began to receive Leopard 2A4 tanks from Germany to replace the T-72M and BMP-1 transferred to Ukraine. In total, under this program, the Czech Republic was to receive 14 Leopard 2A4 tanks and 1 ARV BPz 3 Büffel, and Slovakia 15 Leopard 2A4 units.
The US Department of Defense announced that it will allocate a new $2.5 billion aid package to Ukraine. The package will include 59 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, 90 Stryker armored personnel carriers, eight Avenger anti-aircraft missile systems, additional ammunition for HIMARS and NASAMS air defense systems, anti-radar and anti-tank missiles , shells, cartridges, ammunition and other weapons.
Finland will also provide a record military aid package to Ukraine, which will include heavy artillery and ammunition. “Ukraine still needs support to defend its territory, and the current package of military equipment will be the largest to date. Finland will transfer heavy artillery and ammunition to Ukraine,” said Defense Minister Mikko Savola. The total cost of weapons that Finland will supply to Ukraine will be more than 400 million euros.