Russia could launch a massive offensive before Ukraine receives new arms shipments from the West and before the start of the April thaw (roads will become difficult due to seasonal rains or snowmelt). This is reported by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The British Ministry of Defense, citing intelligence, claims that Russian forces have been trying to resume offensive operations since the beginning of January, but all this time they manage to win back only a few hundred meters a week. The country lacks ammunition and maneuver units, analysts say. According to intelligence, it is unlikely that in the coming weeks the Russian Federation will be able to build up forces that will have a significant impact on the outcome of the war.
Over the past 24 hours, no large-scale changes have occurred at the front, the War Mapper project claims , publishing maps reflecting the situation by 00:00 on February 7. According to them, Russian military personnel moved west from their positions in Blagodatnoye, the information is confirmed by an anonymous OSINT analyst with the nickname WarMonitor.
Russian forces have resumed their offensive along the R-66 highway to the northwest in the Kremennaya Luhansk region, writes former US Navy soldier Chuck Pfarrer. WarMonitor claims that heavy fighting continues in the woodlands west of Kremennaya.
Shoigu announced the capture of cities, Prigogine – about the "rats"
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu once again reported on the successes of the army and said that the Russian Federation had captured (the head of the Ministry of Defense uses the word “liberated”) Soledar, Klescheevka, Podgornoe, Krasnopolye, Blagodatnoe, Lobkove, as well as Nikolaevka in the Donetsk and Zaporozhye directions. According to him, fighting is now developing in the areas of Ugledar and Artemovsk (as Bakhmut is called in the Ministry of Defense).
On the same day, the editors of Pravda.ru asked Yevgeny Prigozhin, one of the founders of Wagner PMC, who personally gathered detachments of prisoners and mercenaries for the war in Ukraine. The correspondent of the publication noted that the media disseminate information about the capture of Soledar and Klescheevka by the Russian Armed Forces, while there is not a word about Wagner PMCs and volunteers. Prigozhin's press service published his response, the head of the PMC claims that no one wanted to go to Soledar, but now there is a struggle for salt mines in it.
“Me and my fighters are not up to studying the statements. In this life (and in that one too), it is not the statements that matter, but the deeds that we do. Someone considers Wagner PMC a criminal organization, someone considers terrorists, and this is also not important. We were given the right to defend our homeland, to save it at a critical moment, and we use it. Such a right and trust of the people is worth a lot. Actions speak louder than words. No one wanted to go to Soledar with machine guns when it was necessary, and there was already a line of rats at the salt mines. When we are no longer needed, we will pack up and go back to Africa. In the meantime, what matters to us is not the statement, but what benefit we will bring to our country.”
A similar situation was in January, when the military department and Prigogine could not decide on statements about the capture of the settlement of Sol. On January 18, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation reported on the capture of Salt in the Donetsk region, but two days earlier, on January 16, Telegram channels associated with Wagner PMCs reported on the capture of Salt by the Wagnerites. Sol is an important transport hub on the direct communication route between Bakhmut and Seversk, administratively it is part of the city of Soledar. Fighting in this area has been going on since the summer of 2022, especially intensified in winter. On January 11, Prigozhin already reported on the complete “liberation” of Soledar by the Wagnerites, then in Ukraine they claimed that the fighting was continuing. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation also made separate statements about Soledar, however, a few days later.
shelling
On the morning of February 7, Russia fired heavy artillery and MLRS on the Dnepropetrovsk region, as a result, power lines were damaged, one of the pumping stations was de-energized, about 60 thousand people were left without water in nine settlements. Head of the Dnepropetrovsk Regional Council Mykola Lukashuk reports this on Telegram.
According to him, as a result of the Russian shelling, four private residential buildings, an outbuilding, power grids and a gas pipeline were also damaged. None of the civilians were hurt.
Survivors in Makiivka
Russian mobilized survivors of the shelling of PTU No. 19 in Makeyevka on the night of January 1 recorded a video message. The entry was published by the Telegram channel Moscow calling. In the published footage, soldiers with covered faces complained that for two days after the shelling they lived wherever they had to, they still had not been assigned new tasks and had not been sent anywhere.
Russia could lose more than 300 soldiers as a result of the UAF strike on Makeevka, the British Ministry of Defense claimed. The Ukrainian side claims that the death toll could reach 400 people, the number of wounded – 300. At the same time, Russia recognizes the death of only 89. According to the official version of the Russian Ministry of Defense, the military personnel used mobile phones, which betrayed their location.
Arms deliveries
Germany will transfer to Ukraine, taking into account all the promised deliveries of 187 Leopard 1 tanks, the shipment was approved by the German Federal Security Council. This was reported on February 7 by Der Spiegel and Business Insider. Part of the Leopard 1 tanks should be delivered to Ukraine this summer, but most will not be delivered until 2024, Der Spiegel notes. The information that the German government will allow Rheinmetall and FFG Flensburger to transfer 187 Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine was officially confirmed by the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Economy of Germany. Earlier today, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius visited Kyiv and presented the Ukrainian Minister of Defense with a Leopard 2 toy tank.
Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands have also pledged to send at least 100 repaired Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine, Dutch Defense Minister Kaisa Ollongren said on Twitter.
“Together with Germany and Denmark, the Netherlands is supplying Ukraine with at least 100 repaired Leopard 1A5 tanks from industrial stocks. We remain determined to support Ukraine in the fight against Russian aggression.”
The tanks will be delivered within a few months, and the countries will also provide spare parts for them. Many of them require repair, so the first tanks will come to the country only in the summer.
The Lithuanian Ministry of Defense showed the training of the Ukrainian military on the L70 anti-aircraft guns, which will be handed over to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Losses
The losses of the Ukrainian army in January 2023 amounted to 6.5 thousand people, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said at a meeting. He did not provide information about the losses of the Russian Federation. According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russia lost 1,030 people killed on February 6 alone, and since February 24, more than 133,190 servicemen.
The General Staff also provides data on the destruction of 3245 Russian tanks, 6443 armored combat vehicles and 2232 artillery systems. In addition, since the beginning of the war, the Russian Federation has lost 294 aircraft and 284 helicopters, 1958 UAVs, 796 cruise missiles, 18 ships and boats, 5107 cars and tanks and 208 pieces of special equipment.
Separately, the Armed Forces of Ukraine report that in the last two days alone, Russia has lost 25 tanks. The General Staff group on Facebook published footage of the destruction of a tank by soldiers of the 92nd separate mechanized brigade named after ataman Ivan Sirko.
Pro-Russian Telegram channels, in turn, write about the destruction of three tanks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and publish videos of damage, including a burned-out T-64. One of the videos shows T-64 and T-72 blown up by mines, Boris Rozhin, an expert at the Russian Center for Military-Political Journalism, reports.
Read also the February 6 The Insider report: “Russian forces try to surround Bakhmut, Prigozhin challenges Zelensky to a duel. What's happening on the front line .