The situation at the front
Russian troops continue to conduct offensive operations in eastern Ukraine, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine repel these attacks, and the Russian army has no noticeable successes. The main efforts of the Russian Federation are concentrated on the Bakhmut , Avdeevsky , Kupyansky , Limansky and Shakhtyorsky directions .
At the same time, the Russian Armed Forces are under great political pressure, as the Kremlin leadership seeks to demonstrate some success on the anniversary of the start of a full-scale invasion, according to a UK Defense Ministry review. At the same time, the Russians suffer heavy losses, especially near Bakhmut and Ugledar.
“In particular, the 155th and 40th Naval Infantry Brigades, named as elite, suffered very heavy losses near Ugledar and are most likely ineffective in combat,” British military intelligence notes. It is likely that Russia will declare Bakhmut captured, regardless of what the real situation will be, the review adds.
American military analyst Michael Kofman writes that the Russian large-scale offensive, which has been talked about for several weeks, has not yet brought much progress to the Russian army. According to him, this is due to the low quality of troop training, heavy losses, lack of ammunition and equipment.
Russia is advancing from 5-6 directions in Donbas instead of attacking in one direction. Kofman calls the battle for Ugledar unsuccessful due to heavy losses. In addition, the expert notes that the area outside Vuhledar is heavily mined and clearly visible, which is beneficial for Ukrainian artillery. This leaves the Russian forces little chance of a successful assault.
Speaking about the possible further actions of the Russian General Staff, Israeli military expert David Gendelman, in a conversation with The Insider, noted that there are two scenarios.
“The first option is to continue to throw up forces on the already active areas in the Donbass, with the expectation of further slow “gnawing” in these areas. The second option is to aim at a more strategic and decisive move in the form of a large offensive from the north or south, creating a threat to encircle the entire eastern grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, creating a threat to Kiev, Kharkov, Zaporozhye, etc. But in the face of a shortage of weapons and military equipment, this option borders on a gamble, and the chances of success are very illusory. Therefore, although there is some probability that they will still go for this adventure, purely in the military-technical sense, it would be much calmer and more reliable for the Russians to choose the first option.
Russia continues to "turn the ZNPP into a military base"
600 mobilized Russians arrived at the Zaporozhye NPP. This is reported by the Ukrainian "Energoatom". It is noted that Russia continues to "turn the ZNPP into a military base."
“On the roof of the fifth power unit, they equipped a machine gun position,” the report says. In September, The Insider obtained a video of the operation of Russian multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) from the territory of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). The footage shows that the MLRS are located in close proximity to the power unit.
The Zaporozhye NPP was occupied by Russian troops at the very beginning of the invasion, on March 4 last year, but despite the shelling, it continues to work, and it is still served by Ukrainian engineers.
Biden in Ukraine
US President Joe Biden visited Ukraine for the first time since the beginning of the war, where he met with Volodymyr Zelensky. During his visit to Kiev, Biden announced a new $460 million package of U.S. military aid to Ukraine. The total amount of U.S. military aid given to Kiev since the start of the war now stands at about $29.8 billion.
The website of the US Department of Defense reports that as part of this assistance package, Ukraine will be provided from the presence of the department:
– an unnamed additional number of GMLRS precision guided missiles for HIMARS missile systems;
– an unnamed number of 155 mm artillery rounds;
– an unnamed number of mortar mines of 120 mm caliber;
– four air target detection radars;
– an unnamed number of Javelin anti-tank missile systems;
– 2000 disposable hand-held anti-tank grenade launchers;
– four armored vehicles of advanced artillery observers and advanced air guidance Bradley Fire Support Team (BFIST, apparently M7A2);
– two repair evacuation vehicles;
– Claymore directional anti-personnel mines;
– subversive property;
– night-vision devices;
– secure means of tactical radio communications;
– medical property;
– Spare parts and other field property.
Zelensky called the talks with Biden "very important." According to him, they bring Ukraine closer to victory. “The democratic world will win this historic battle. Ukraine will win,” writes Zelensky.
Arms deliveries
The Italian government is considering the possibility of transferring five AMX light attack fighters to Ukraine, the final removal of which from the Italian Air Force is planned by the end of the year. This is reported by the Italian newspaper La Reppublica. As an option, the possibility of transferring Tornado fighter-bombers is being considered. However, the transfer of aircraft will be possible only on the condition that Italy will not be the first country to supply Western-made fighters to Kyiv.
On February 18, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said at the Munich Security Conference that Poland was ready to supply MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine in alliance with other NATO countries.
"Gruz 200" on "Putin's planes"
The planes of the Rossiya special flight squad, which is part of the presidential administration and transports top Russian officials, were used to transport the bodies of Russian soldiers who died in the war to the regions, writes The Moscow Times. In 2016, President Vladimir Putin flew one of these aircraft to Yoshkar-Ola.
The publication, through the FlightRadar service tracking air travel, analyzed the routes of special squad aircraft for late January – early February and found that after they arrived in Russian regions, there were reports of the funeral of dead soldiers.
In early February, a video appeared on social networks, filmed in Tatarstan, in which 11 zinc coffins with the bodies of those killed in Ukraine are being loaded. The men in the video say they are to be transported to the villages of Tatarstan and Bashkortostan. On one of the coffins, the surname and initials of Yangibaev A.A. are distinguishable. In social networks, there were messages about his funeral: Artur Yangibaev was buried in Zainsk on January 31. A week before, on January 25, a Yak-40 of the Rossiya detachment with tail number RA-87972 landed in Nizhnekamsk.
From February 8 to 12, six servicemen were buried in the Orenburg and Chelyabinsk regions, and on February 8, another Rossiya ship flew to Orenburg, then to Chelyabinsk – a cargo plane with tail number RA-61712.
Another plane – An-148-100EA with the number RA-61720 – flew to Yekaterinburg on January 23, after which two were buried in the region on January 23 and 24: a soldier and a Wagner PMC fighter. On January 26, RA-61720 flew to Arkhangelsk and then to Cherepovets. A few days later, at least three people who died in Ukraine were buried in these regions – reports about them were published by local media. And before that, on January 13, the plane flew from Moscow to Ufa and back. On this day, Putin visited the capital of Bashkortostan.
Read also The Insider’s summary of the main events of the war on February 17: “ Wagner’s PMC surrounds Bakhmut, the Ministry of Defense wants to subdue Prigozhin, Kadyrov changes commanders. What's going on at the front ."