The situation at the front
Russian forces are making little progress in Bakhmut and are unlikely to be able to resume the offensive on Ugledar, the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) writes in a regular report . The authors of the report cite a representative of the Ukrainian army, Serhiy Cherevaty, according to whom the Russian military made 42 attempts to attack in the Bakhmut region over the past day.
“The relatively slow pace of Russian attacks in and around Bakhmut on 16 March, together with relatively few Russian claims of advance or takeover in the area, supports ISW’s assessment of 15 March that the Wagner PMC offensive on Bakhmut is likely approaching a climax.” , according to experts of the institute.
Their brief also notes that Russian forces are continuing limited operations in the western part of the Donetsk region, near the town of Vuhledar, located 30 kilometers from Donetsk.
The daily report of the British military intelligence says that the Russian military and Wagner PMC mercenaries in recent days have been able to gain a foothold on the western bank of the Bakhmutka River, which runs through the city center. At the same time, in the previous week, the river actually marked the front line. The armed forces of Ukraine continue to defend the western part of the city.
In general, along the front line, the level of local advances is now the lowest since the beginning of January 2023, the authors of the report believe. Apparently, the Russian troops have temporarily exhausted the combat capabilities of their units and they are not enough even for small offensive operations.
British military intelligence believes that the Russian command will seek to restore the offensive potential as soon as there is a replenishment of personnel and ammunition. Until then, commanders will have to choose between conducting offensive operations and providing reliable defense along the front line.
The pro-Russian Telegram channel “Two Majors” writes that northwest of Bakhmut, Wagner PMCs “are developing success after the capture of Zaliznyansky.”
Meanwhile, Estonian intelligence reports that the Wagner PMC cannot recruit enough new mercenaries, because of this, the Russian military leadership began to replace them with regular units on the southern flank of their group near Bakhmut. Estonian intelligence also noted a decrease in the intensity of Russian assault operations in this direction compared to the winter period due to the weather and the rotation of units, but warned that by April their activity could increase again.
The summary of the Armed Forces of Ukraine says that in the Avdeevka, Maryinsky and Shakhtyorsky directions, the Russian army unsuccessfully advanced in the direction of Kamenka, Nevelsky, Avdeevka and Maryinka of the Donetsk region. In the Kupyansky and Limansky directions, the Russians also unsuccessfully tried to break through the defenses of the Ukrainian army, according to the Ukrainian General Staff.
In the Volyn, Polessky, Seversk and Slobozhansk directions, the situation remains unchanged. The Russians continue to carry out the engineering equipment of the area in the border regions of the Bryansk and Kursk regions, the General Staff of Ukraine writes. In the Zaporozhye and Kherson directions, the Russian army is on the defensive, reports the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Evgeny Balitsky, previously appointed by Russia as the “acting governor” of the Zaporozhye region, said that Kiev was preparing its troops to intensify hostilities in the Zaporozhye sector of the front. Military expert Roman Svitan, in an interview with The Insider, said that preparations are underway in this direction, but it is too early to talk about an offensive. At the same time, according to him, there are signs of the retreat of the Russians from this direction:
“In the Zaporizhzhya sector of the front, as in other sectors, there is a rotation of troops, that is, a replacement is underway and some go to resupply, while the other comes in. After the entry of the troops, the so-called reconnaissance in force takes place in order to determine the boundaries of the enemy's fortified areas.
What we are seeing now is the post-rotation military operations that are being carried out by our troops entering the front line. This can be considered a banal reconnaissance in battle, but any offensive action begins with reconnaissance in battle. Everything here will depend on the team.
New units entering the front line are preparing to carry out offensive operations. When will they be? This is another question, but preparations are ongoing. These are the banal actions of any part that unfolds. This is not the kind of offensive that they talk about, but the preparation can be.
On March 16, the Ukrainian General Staff gave information that Russian trucks carrying ammunition to the Kherson and Zaporozhye directions were returning back, full of washing machines from the left bank. This suggests that the Russians are preparing to leave the left bank and the Zaporizhia front. Such preparation is always noticeable when the rear rats know how events will develop and prepare to leave: they rob and begin to take out the loot.
This is a good signal when lines of trucks appear, which go back, loaded with household appliances from abandoned houses, to the Crimea. Prepare for our advance and our retreat. All armies have this, this is how this world works. This is not the case in the Donbass and Luhansk, empty cars go back there, but from the Zaporozhye and Kherson directions they are full.”
shelling
Two people died as a result of Russian shelling of the Donetsk region. According to the regional administration, 19 residential buildings, a colony building, a school and an enterprise were also damaged. The morning missile attack on Avdiivka was without casualties. In the photo, the consequences of the strike on Avdiivka:
Supply of arms
French Armed Forces Minister Sebastian Lecornu told the French National Assembly's Defense Commission that the AMX-10RC wheeled cannon armored vehicles, which France announced about its planned transfer to Ukraine in early January, "have just arrived in Ukraine."
“Some have already arrived at the front lines,” Lecornu said, without specifying the number of vehicles delivered. "I'm now looking at how we can make a second wave of deliveries," Le Figaro quoted him as saying.
According to French media, France planned to transfer from the presence of 40 AMX-10RC machines, including 20 in the first batch. For 2021, the French army had 247 AMX-10RC vehicles.
Politico writes that China supplies Russia with weapons and military products, as well as dual-use products. In June, one of China's largest defense contractors sent a thousand CQ-A rifles to the Russian company Tekhkrim, which cooperates with the Russian Ministry of Defense. CQ-A rifles modeled after the M16 are designated "civilian hunting rifles". Politico specifies that they are also used by the military police in China and the military from the Philippines to Paraguay.
Da-Jiang Innovations Science & Technology Co. (DJI) shipped drone parts last year via the UAE to a small Russian distributor. Batteries and cameras designed for drones were sent through the UAE, in total 12 batches of such parts were delivered. More than 12 tons of bulletproof vests worth about $10 million were sent through Turkey to Russia in 2022. The publication notes that the goods are dual-use products, potentially the Russian Federation can use them in the war in Ukraine. There is no confirmation of the use of Chinese rifles on the battlefield, while Chinese commercial drones have already been seen in Ukraine.
The Swedish Ministry of Defense announced that a decision was approved to transfer eight units of wheeled 155-mm self-propelled guns FH 77 BW L52 "Archer" to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Ukrainian forces will receive Swedish self-propelled guns within a few months. Archer will be equipped with a computerized fire control system, after which the Ukrainian military will undergo the necessary training. There are also plans to create a logistics hub near Ukraine, where, among other things, repairs will be carried out.
The Cabinet of Ministers of Slovakia approved the transfer of 13 MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine, Prime Minister Eduard Heger said. “Promises must be kept, and when [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky asked for more weapons, including fighter jets, I said we would do our best,” Heger tweeted .
Belgium will transfer 240 military trucks to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is reported by Ukrayinska Pravda with reference to De Standaard. A batch of 240 Volvo Cargo, Volvo Shelter, Volvo Fassi and Volvo Manumat trucks will go to Ukraine next week. The Belgian Ministry of Defense notes that logistics during the war is no less important than weapons. According to the military department, the trucks are in good condition – despite the fact that they have been in operation since the early 1990s.
Possible end of the war
Military expert Markus Koipp, an employee of the military academy of the Swiss Higher Technical School in Zurich, believes that the war may end by October due to the fact that Russia will not be able to replenish its stocks of weapons. He stated this in an interview with T-Online. The Agency drew attention to this interview.
“The war will probably end in October. I come to this conclusion on the basis of simple calculations, correlating the stocks of tanks and other military equipment in Russia before the war with losses. I also got the impression that Russian stockpiles are grossly overestimated: a lot of the weapons are from the 1950s and 1960s, which looks good on paper but has no practical value,” Koipp said.
According to the expert, the Ukrainian leadership is doing the right thing by continuing to defend Bakhmut. Koipp believes that the battles for the city tie up a large number of Russian troops, while due to the fighting, Ukraine manages to maintain its reserves necessary for a future offensive.
Arrest warrant for Putin
The International Court of Justice in The Hague has issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian children's rights ombudsman Maria Lvova-Belova. They are charged with war crimes relating to the forced displacement of children from Ukraine.
Now Putin will not be able to visit the 123 countries that have ratified the Rome Statute and recognize the jurisdiction of the ICC in The Hague. These are almost all European countries, South America, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Brazil, South Africa, Central African Republic, Nigeria. Among the countries that have not ratified the Rome Statute or have withdrawn their signature are Russia, the United States, China, India, Israel and Turkey.
Read about what happened at the front on March 16 in The Insider report : What's going on at the front ."