situation at the front. Avdiivka
Fierce battles are now going on in the Avdeevka direction in the Donetsk region. Russian Telegram channels write that the Russian Armed Forces were able to break through the defenses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine north of Avdiivka in the Stepovoe area, they report that the city is threatened with a “cauldron”. According to the Rybar Telegram channel, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are urgently strengthening their advanced positions. Reinforcements, reinforced by several tanks, were transferred from the Berdychi area in the direction of Petrovsky. According to the same data, in the south of Avdiivka, Russian assault detachments, operating from the outskirts of Opytny, broke through the fortifications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the southwestern outskirts of the city. Now the fighting is going on on the outskirts of the 9th quarter of Avdiivka.
British military intelligence notes that the situation around Avdiivka is similar to the situation in Bakhmut. The Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to organize defense in the city. On the flanks of the defense of Avdiivka, the Russians had advanced at an extremely slow pace over the previous three weeks. However, such an advance could potentially pose a threat to the supply lines of Ukrainian fighters stationed in the city.
If the military personnel of the RF Armed Forces are able to capture Petrivske and gain a foothold in the area by cutting the railway line, the supply by rail will be stopped, which will significantly reduce the capabilities of the Ukrainian military. A breakthrough in the south-west of the Avdiivka fortified area fetters Ukrainian units in this area, preventing them from being transferred to the north to regain control over a section of the railway line. With clear and timely coordination of the actions of the advancing forces of the RF Armed Forces, serious tactical success can be achieved, and units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can fall into the operational encirclement.
Military expert Alexander Kovalenko, in an interview with The Insider, explained that there is practically no Russian army in the Avdiivka area. Units of the 1st and 2nd army corps operate there, these are the so-called "LPR" and "DPR", in particular, the 109th rifle regiment, units of the 277th rifle battalion, the 60th separate motorized rifle battalion called "Veterans ”, 33rd Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment. Support from the Russian troops consists of a partial supply of ammunition, as well as artillery support.
“Regarding the “boiler”, you should understand the terminology. I really don't like this marginal term, which is called the environment. There are two types of environments: operational and tactical. Avdiivka is currently not located in any of them. With an operational environment, some location, a city, is completely surrounded, there is no way to use logistics outside the city, that is, all routes are cut by the enemy, but at the same time, defense is being carried out inside the city itself, and mobile. In the location itself, it is possible to move freely and carry out mobile defense. With a tactical environment, almost everything is the same, with the exception of the impossibility of conducting mobile defense, that is, free movement in the location is impossible. Avdiivka is neither in the first nor in the second position, because the main logistical artery continues to operate freely – this is highway 0542, which goes from Avdiivka through Lastochkino along Orlovka. Orlivka is a local logistics hub that allows for the logistics of Avdiivka in three directions.
Russian units are fighting in the Krasnogorovka area and are trying to get out of Vodyany in the direction of Severny, that is, they are now in the process of advancing. But here is an interesting point. From Krasnogorovka to highway 0542, this is almost 4.5 km across the open field. And here it is worth drawing a parallel with Bakhmut, because when the Wagner PMC and the Russian occupation forces captured Kleeshchevka south of Bakhmut, they immediately moved to the north-west to cut the logistical artery 0504, but it is located 4 km from Kleshcheyevka, and before it, stomp on an open field, in open space, with a line of defense, etc. They have been stomping for more than two months and can not cut this track. When you are in an open field, it is suicide to conduct assault offensive actions. Because we are talking, in fact, about the complete fire control of your advance by your enemy – especially if you do it in a narrow direction, then this is all the more effective fire control, that is, the impact of artillery.
The same situation will be here. Russian units from Krasnogorovka will not be able to move directly to cut the 0542 highway. They may start trying to move to the north of Avdiivka, but in doing so they will not provide a cut off from the logistics. Similarly, from the south: this is possible only through Vodiane in the direction of Orlovka, and there the defense lines are quite dense, and it will also be quite difficult to break through them. Therefore, it is categorically wrong to say that Avdiivka is now in an operational or tactical encirclement.”
In general, the pace of Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine has slowed in recent weeks, which may indicate that the spring offensive of Russian troops may be nearing completion. Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) write about this in a regular report. The speaker of the Eastern Group of Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Sergei Cherevaty, said the day before that Russia was unable to muster enough forces for the expected major offensive in the Donbass, and noted that the current Russian offensive cannot be called a major strategic operation.
According to him, Russian troops cannot even complete the tactical encirclement of Bakhmut. They also experience significant difficulties in achieving operationally significant successes in other sectors of the front. Thus, the spring offensive of the Russian troops is probably approaching its climax, writes ISW.
If 300,000 Russian soldiers have failed to provide a decisive offensive advantage in Ukraine, then it is unlikely that the addition of additional forces in future waves of mobilization will lead to a radically different result this year. Therefore, Ukraine has every chance to regain the initiative and launch a counteroffensive in critical areas of the current front line, experts conclude.
As for the situation in Bakhmut, the founder of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has now directly addressed the Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu, writing him a letter stating that the Ukrainian armed forces are preparing an offensive on this sector of the front, and urging him to prevent the "cutting off the forces" of the PMC from regular units Russian army. In his letter, he also claims that the Wagnerites control about 70% of Bakhmut. A copy of the letter is posted on the Telegram channel Prigozhin's Cap.
The Ukrainian authorities, like Prigozhin himself, have repeatedly stated that the situation in the Bakhmut region is difficult, but Ukrainian forces are repelling attacks by Russian troops.
Shortage of new weapons in Russia
After the start of a full-scale military invasion of Ukraine, Russia stopped disposing of old weapons. As The Moscow Times notes , the last contract for the disposal of weapons was signed by the Russian Ministry of Defense in January 2022. Then the department of Sergei Shoigu destroyed artillery ammunition for 5.7 million rubles. The Russian authorities have not made public statements about the classification of contracts for the disposal of weapons.
As military expert David Gendelman notes in an interview with the publication, this is an indicator that new equipment is not enough.
“Now we see not just the removal of equipment from storage, but also the restoration and repair of equipment already decommissioned from service. Because they did not count on such a protracted war, where all this may still be needed. Therefore, now there is not enough equipment, ammunition, personnel and everything else, ”the expert notes.
A Russian army contractor on the front line confirmed to The Moscow Times that a lot of old military equipment is coming to the front in need of repair, and there is not enough ammunition: “That’s why the front is not moving.” He suggested that the Soviet mothballed equipment was stored incorrectly, so it was sent to the front in poor condition.
Arms supplies to Ukraine
The United States has announced a new $350 million military aid package for Ukraine. This was announced on March 20 by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.
These will be HIMARS missiles, M2A2 Bradley ammunition, anti-tank weapons, river boats, HARM aircraft missiles to counter radar.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced that German infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) Marder have been sent to Ukraine. He said this, according to CNN, on the sidelines of a meeting of EU foreign and defense ministers in Brussels.
The party is already on its way to Ukraine; Pistorius did not disclose the number of BMPs to be delivered. Earlier, Pistorius's predecessor Christina Lambrecht announced the delivery of 40 Marder infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine. She said that the delivery of equipment should be completed before April.
Meanwhile, Ukraine received from Norway 8 Leopard 2A4 tanks, 4 armored recovery vehicles and one mobile counter-battery radar, according to the Norwegian Defense Ministry.
According to the head of the country's Ministry of Defense, Bjorn Arild Gram, the war in Ukraine is approaching a critical phase, so it is extremely important to supply equipment.
At the same time, the EU agreed on a plan for the current year for the joint purchase by the participating countries of 1 million shells for Ukraine. This information was confirmed on Twitter by Estonian Prime Minister Kaya Kallas, who was the author of this initiative. It is assumed that 2 billion euros will be spent on this. Half of the money will go to shipping existing inventory and the other half to ordering new ones.
Read about what happened at the front on March 17 in The Insider report: “ The removal of washing machines as a sign of the withdrawal of the Russians, the forecast for the end of the war and the arrest warrant for Putin. What's happening on the front lines ."