The situation at the front
Russian troops have dramatically changed the priority direction for the offensive, according to the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Analysts believe that a new possible target instead of Bakhmut is the city of Avdeevka in the Pokrovsky district of the Donetsk region. Russia can surround the settlement due to a pause near Bakhmut and Vugledar.
To the north of Avdiivka, soldiers of the 132nd Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade of the RF Armed Forces have advanced west of Novobakhmutovka in recent days, according to the pro-Russian Telegram channel Rybar. Soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were knocked out from two strongholds south of Novobakhmutovka and northeast of Krasnogorovka, the report says. According to the channel, now the Armed Forces of Ukraine are holding positions in a forest belt near one of the sections of the H20 highway and are in a semi-encirclement.
To the north-west of Avdiivka, positional battles are taking place near the railway. After the sortie of the RF Armed Forces in Stepovoe, Ukrainian servicemen transferred reserves and forced the Russian group behind the railway line. To the west, the RF Armed Forces are shelling the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Lastochkino, Thin and Severny.
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announced on the evening of March 23 that all units of the Russian army had left Novaya Kakhovka, but later denied this, specifying that information about their withdrawal by the Russian Federation from the settlement was made public due to "misuse of available data." The original report stated that the Russian military "confiscated" household and electronic equipment, jewelry, clothing and mobile phones from civilians for profit. The Russian Defense Ministry has not yet commented on the information about the situation in Nova Kakhovka.
The commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Alexander Syrsky, said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine would soon take advantage of the losses of the Russian Federation near Bakhmut, just as it was near Kiev and in the Kharkiv region. According to him, the Russian Federation does not leave hope to take Bakhmut at any cost, despite the losses in manpower and equipment.
“The main forces of the Russian Federation in this direction are representatives of the PMC Wagner. Sparing nothing, they lose considerable strength and run out of steam. Very soon we will take advantage of this opportunity, as we once did near Kiev, Kharkov, Balakleya and Kupyansk.
Under continuous enemy artillery and aviation fire, our soldiers at the front demonstrate superhuman stamina, courage and bravery. In particular, units of the 93rd, 10th, 57th and 5th brigades that are now defending our Motherland in the east of the country.”
Boris Rozhin, an expert at the propaganda Center for Military-Political Journalism, wrote on his Telegram channel that the situation north of Avdiivka has changed. According to him, there is no operational environment and, moreover, there is no boiler there now, the roads through Orlovka continue to be actively used by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. According to Rozhin, it is currently impossible to organize serious pressure on Tonenkoe from Pervomaisky and Vodyany. At the same time, the advance at Krasnogorovka creates a threat of access to Orlovka from the northeast, so the Ukrainian military is now strengthening the defense to the west of Krasnogorovka.
The Wagner PMC itself claims that in the area of Bakhmut, Konstantinovka, Slavyansk, Kramatorsk and Druzhkovka, up to 80 thousand APU personnel, about 280 tanks, over 1000 armored vehicles, up to 300 pieces of cannon artillery, as well as 93 MLRS are concentrated. So the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will try to knock out the PMC assault forces from Bakhmut, and develop an offensive towards Donetsk.
Bloomberg, citing sources, reports that Yevgeny Prigozhin plans to curtail Wagner PMC operations in Ukraine. The siloviki and the political establishment see Prigozhin as a “growing threat”, now he lacks resources and ammunition after the ban on recruiting Russian prisoners for the war. On the eve it was reported that PMC Wagner will lose many mercenaries in connection with the end of their six-month military contracts. Thousands of prisoners who were recruited for the war with Ukraine will be pardoned and released, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported .
In addition, ISW claimed that Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to completely distance himself from one of the founders of PMC Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, after the conflict amid the capture of Soledar. Prigozhin created a brand that ridicules the Russian Defense Ministry for its disregard for the lives of military personnel, and is unlikely to anger convicts by keeping them on the front lines after the expiration of the contract, the ISW concluded.
Arms deliveries
Czech President Petr Pavel said in an interview with the Süddeutsche Zeitung newspaper that his country helped Ukraine with arms supplies as much as it could, but it no longer has the capacity to do so. He specified that 2023 would be a decisive year for the war. According to Pavel, problems may arise with the production of air defense and ammunition due to a shortage of labor, since the Czech Republic has a low unemployment rate, and suggested inviting workers from Ukraine.
Ukraine has sent an official request to Finland for the supply of F / A-18 Hornet fighters for the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Finnish newspaper Helsingin Sanomat reports , citing sources. The publication notes that we are talking about tripartite negotiations between Finland, Ukraine and the United States. A possible future transfer would require U.S. approval, as the fighters are manufactured by an American defense company.
Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of the Russian Security Council, said that the Russian military-industrial complex will produce 1,500 modern battle tanks in 2023. Military expert Pavel Luzin commented to The Insider that this was not possible. According to him, Russia annually modernizes 150-180 previously produced T-72, T-80 and T-90 tanks, and the net production of new T-90 tanks is about 20-30 units. At the same time, even in the USSR, more than 1,500 tanks were not produced every year, the expert noted.
The Insider on weekdays publishes daily reports with the main events of the war, about the situation on March 22 – in the article “A blow to the house in Zaporozhye, Putin does not need Prigozhin, ammunition was dropped on a soldier of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in response to a call for mercy. What's going on at the front .