The situation at the front
The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports a small advance of Russian units in Bakhmut. After examining the videos found online and geolocated, ISW analysts came to the conclusion that Russian forces advanced slightly in the south and southwest of the city. Earlier, ISW wrote that the Wagnerites had already occupied about two thirds of the territory of Bakhmut.
At the same time, the Ukrainian military told The New York Times that there was a turning point in the battle for Bakhmut and the intensity of Russian attacks had dropped significantly, and there was no longer any threat of imminent encirclement. Now a counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is expected.
“The enemy has exhausted all his reserves. The density of attacks has decreased several times. Previously, they could attack in all directions at the same time and in groups of at least 20, 30 or 40 people, but gradually the attacks fade away, ”said Colonel Yevhen Mezhevikin, who heads the Ukrainian tactical group Adam, which is now fighting in Bakhmut, to the publication.
ISW, based on data from open sources, concludes that in the past few days, Russian units have advanced slightly on both sides of Avdiivka, a city near Donetsk. "Geolocated surveys released on March 29 show that Russian forces have likely advanced north of Vodiane (8km southwest of Avdiivka) and at Veseloe (7km northeast of Avdiivka)," writes ISW. Thus, Avdiivka, which the Russians had been storming since the first day of the war, was engulfed by them from three sides, but not surrounded.
In other areas, according to ISW, the front line has not changed over the past two days. Analysts write that there is only information about the attacks and counterattacks of the parties in the Kupyansk area, between Kremennaya and Liman and in other places.
According to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in the epicenter of hostilities are Belogorovka, Bakhmut, Avdeevka, Marinka. 47 attacks were repelled in the directions: Kupyansky and Limansky – in the area of Stelmakhovka, Kuzminoye and Berestovoy, Bakhmutsky – in Bakhmut and in the area of Orekhovo-Vasilyevka, Avdeevsky and Maryinsky – in the areas of Novobakhmutovka, Novokalinovo, Stepnoy, Avdeevka, Severny, Vodyany, Krasnogorovka and Maryinka . On the Volyn, Polessky, Seversky, Slobozhansky, Shakhtyorsky, Zaporozhye and Kherson directions, the operational situation has not changed significantly.
Meanwhile, the weather at the front is rapidly changing, until recently it was spring and +18, and now it is snowing. Telegram-channel KotsNews publishes a weather report from the Svatovsky border:
Russian losses
British Defense Minister Ben Wallace said that Russia lost 220,000 people killed and wounded in Ukraine. Sky News writes about it.
According to Wallace, Russian troops are now making almost no progress and are suffering huge losses.
“Russian forces currently have some really serious and deep systemic problems. According to the latest US estimates that I have seen, the casualty figures are more than 220,000 people killed and wounded,” the minister said.
At the same time, a month ago, British intelligence analysts reported that the forces of the Russian Ministry of Defense and private military companies probably lost from 175 to 200,000 people wounded and killed. At the time, it was noted that the casualty rate in Russia had increased significantly since September 2022, when "partial mobilization" was introduced.
400 thousand "volunteers"
British military intelligence analysts drew attention to Russian media reports, from which it follows that the authorities are preparing to recruit an additional 400,000 troops. Russia presents the recruitment campaign as a voluntary recruitment of professional personnel, and not as a new mandatory mobilization. However, there is a real possibility that in practice this distinction will be blurred and that the regional authorities will try to fulfill their task of recruiting through coercion.
The Russian authorities have opted for a supposedly "volunteer scheme" to make up for the shortage of personnel while minimizing domestic outbursts. It is unlikely that such a campaign will attract 400,000 real volunteers, according to British intelligence.
Arms deliveries
15 Viktor anti-aircraft guns, purchased with funds raised by volunteers, are leaving the Czech Republic for Ukraine. Donors contributed money for them as part of the Gift to Putin project. As part of this initiative, Czech volunteers raised 90 million CZK.
“It's time to say goodbye. 15 MR-2 Viktor anti-drone systems, for which we collected 90 million from you, are sent to the front. Let the Ukrainian military shoot accurately, take care of yourself,” the volunteers wrote.
Employees of the Tambov Khlebokombinat enterprise assemble Bekas FPV drones, Dozhd reports , citing a publication in Rossiyskaya Gazeta. The company assigned a workshop for the production of quadrocopters for the needs of the "special military operation". The bakery buys some of the parts, and prints some on a 3D printer, the capacity allows to assemble up to 200 drones per month.
The Telegram channel "Military Informant" publishes photos of two-link tracked all-terrain vehicles Bandvagn 206 and 206S of Swedish development in service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The first was transmitted from Italy, and the second, most likely from the UK or the Netherlands, the authors of the channel note. Previously, the delivery of these machines to Ukraine was not reported.
Norway wants to transfer 12 diesel trains to Ukraine, Nettavisen reports . Transport Minister Ion-Ivar Nygård told the newspaper that the first four trains will probably be able to send before the summer, and the remaining 8 – during the year. Ukrainian railroads rely on diesel locomotives to travel amid strikes against energy infrastructure and traction substations that keep electric trains running.
The first four MiG-29SA fighters, which Slovakia handed over to Ukraine, are already performing combat missions, according to the local publication Sita. On March 29, Deputy Head of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Elena Kondratyukova, speaking at the National Council of the Slovak Republic, said that fighter jets were already protecting the sky over Kharkov.
shelling
The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation stated that for the first time the air defense forces shot down a missile of the operational-tactical missile system (OTRK) "Grom-2". This OTRK was developed mainly with the money of Saudi Arabia and in the interests of its armed forces, but was never completed, writes the Military Informant Telegram channel. By the start of hostilities, reportedly, there were only a couple of experimental launchers and a few rocket engines produced. The authors of the channel suggest that Ukraine could “bring to mind” the launchers at its disposal and produce several missiles in a year. Grom-2 is essentially an analogue of the Russian Iskander-M OTRK or the American MGM-140 ATACMS. The mass of the warhead of the rocket is 480 kg, the range in the export version is up to 300 km, in the version for the Armed Forces – 500 km.
The Russians began to actively use winged bombs, said Yury Ignat, spokesman for the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
“This is a new threat that has appeared before us: without flying into the zone of destruction of our air defense, they drop these bombs. Bombs of 500 kg fly tens of kilometers, let me remind you that this bomb has a warhead, something needs to be done about it. Not only the air defense systems that we are waiting for, but still increase pressure and work with Western partners to create an aviation coalition and provide Ukraine with fighters," he said.
Ignat added that winged guided aerial bombs appear in the frontline zone almost every day. Earlier, the pro-Russian Telegram channel FighterBomber wrote about the expansion of the use of Russian planning bombs. A complex for converting free-falling bombs into correctable ones in pro-Russian sources is called UMPC (universal planning and correction module). In fact, it is an analogue of the American JDAM, which, as previously reported, has already entered service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
About the main events of the war on March 29 – in the previous report: "Swing" in Bakhmut, drones in the Crimea, Kiev received French combat vehicles. What's going on at the front ."