Iranian oil is pushing Russian producers on the Chinese market. Private refineries, considered the main consumers of China's oil exports, have begun switching to Iranian supplies because they are cheaper. "Teapots", as Chinese private refineries are called, increased purchases of Iranian oil and condensate by 20% in March, up to 800,000 barrels per day. Bloomberg writes about this with reference to market participants.
The key reason for switching "dummies" to Iranian oil is the cost of Russian oil, which began to trade more expensive than supplies from Iran. According to the agency's estimates, a barrel of Russian Urals oil is currently being sold at a discount of about $10 to the European benchmark Brent, and ESPO oil at a discount of $6. And Iranian oil is sold at a discount of $12 per barrel, which is why Chinese refineries switch to it. Moreover, analysts are confident that the reversal trend has just begun and in the coming months, the volume of deliveries from Iran to China will only grow.
“Previously, most of Iranian oil went to state-owned refineries, but now private refineries run everything, especially in Shandong province,” said Homayoun Falakshahi, senior oil analyst at Kpler.
Estimates of current supplies from leading think tanks differ. For example, Vortexa talks about an increase in Iranian oil supplies in March by 20%, up to 800 thousand barrels per day, Kpler claims that in February Iran supplied China with even more – 1.2 million barrels per day. Difficulties with calculations are explained by the lack of official information on supplies: China does not reflect such imports in its official statistics or replaces them with supplies from other countries, such as Malaysia.
Another argument in favor of Iranian oil is the lack of competition with large state-owned companies in China and India, which are currently the main buyers of Russian raw materials. The Shandong Kettles are already historically dependent on the supply of sanctioned oil, they have been working for years with supplies from Iran, Venezuela, and, since last year, Russia. They account for about 20% of China's total oil refining capacity.
