The New York Times has published information from a classified US Department of Defense intelligence document, part of a recent leak of Pentagon documents on the war in Ukraine. According to the publication, the next document lists four options for the development of the war in Ukraine. Hypothetical scenarios include the death of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine President Vladimir Zelensky, the removal of the leadership of the Russian Armed Forces, and a Ukrainian attack on the Kremlin.
The document is tagged "RELIDO". It is dated February 24 and marked "ONE YEAR" – suggesting that the analysis was carried out a year after the start of the invasion.
One of the four hypothetical scenarios describes what might happen if Ukraine strikes at the Kremlin. The paper describes a range of potential impacts. Putin, in response to public outcry, "may launch a full-scale military mobilization" and "consider the use of tactical nuclear weapons." Or public fears may force him to negotiate a settlement to the war. The danger of such an attack from Ukraine is one reason the United States has been reluctant to provide Kyiv with longer-range missiles, the NYT notes.
The second secret document obtained by the publication contains details of negotiations on prices for Russian fuel in Africa. According to a document dated February 17, the Malian authorities are unhappy with fuel prices, so they continued to negotiate with the Russian Ministry of Energy and representatives of the Africa Political Science company, associated with the Wagner PMC.