Poland, followed by Hungary, introduced a temporary ban on the import of grain and other agricultural products from Ukraine, explaining this by protecting the interests of local farmers. Similar measures are being discussed in Slovakia, Bulgaria and Romania. The European Commission called the decisions of the Polish and Hungarian governments unacceptable, recalling that trade policy is the sole responsibility of the EU authorities. Kyiv accused Warsaw of violating agreements on the transit of Ukrainian grain.
Pavlo Koval, CEO of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation, an all-Ukrainian public association, told The Insider that both objective logistical difficulties and political reasons could be behind Poland's decision.
Causes
- Having lost the ability to export agricultural products through ports in the south of the country and sending exports through Eastern and Central Europe, Ukraine has created an additional burden on the logistics system of these countries. This problem has not been addressed at the EU level.
- Domestic political processes in Eastern European countries, the desire of the ruling party to maintain the support of voters from among the farmers.
- Relations of these countries with the EU and Russia.
“We know that the Polish side appealed to the European Commission with a request to compensate for certain costs incurred by Polish farmers due to the oversaturation of the market with imported Ukrainian products. We know that the agreements on budgets and compensation volumes have only been partially implemented and they are many times less [than Poland expected]. Most likely, certain countries like Slovakia and Hungary decided to try to use the same tool.
<…> It can be assumed that the Hungarian government is somehow coordinating its actions with Russia on certain issues against Ukraine. Although so far this has not been observed in economic issues.”
The head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell, said on April 17 that Russia was blocking 50 ships with Ukrainian grain intended for export in the Black Sea as part of a grain deal concluded with the participation of Turkey and the UN.
“Russia refuses to create a plan for the inspection of ships from Ukraine in the Joint Commission for Monitoring in the Bosphorus. This is blocking a large possible corridor for the export of agricultural products from Ukraine. Now problems are unfolding with the transportation of goods through rail and road transport, and against this background they are completely blocking this corridor.”
Consequences for Ukraine
- Carriers of agricultural products started having problems with customs crossings. Cars with cargo, already cleared on the Ukrainian side, enter the customs zone in Poland, they are not allowed to pass, they return back.
- The Polish authorities, having formally agreed to fulfill the agreements on the transit of Ukrainian cargo, may not allow them to pass under the pretext of veterinary and sanitary violations.
- Stopping transit hits not only Ukrainian producers, but also exporters, traders, processors and other counterparties, destroying hard-won international agreements.
“Now a sowing campaign is unfolding in Ukraine, and decisions [to ban imports] may affect the structure and volume of crops, the structure of sown areas. We are guaranteed to have 4.1 million hectares of wheat that were sown in autumn, but there is also a spring wedge, that is, it is necessary to sow late crops and oilseeds, spring crops, barley, wheat, oats, peas and others. This is a complex problem, and several international platforms are involved here. If this is Russia's large-scale hybrid game, it is again the use of food as a weapon. If the food corridor is blocked, then we cannot fully fulfill our obligations for the supply of products.”
EU actions
The European Union is a single customs area, and individual countries do not have the right to impose a ban on the import of any goods. Koval is convinced that the European Commission will have to take action against Poland and other countries that make such decisions unilaterally.
“This is an EU sustainability test. <…> It is necessary to improve logistics and infrastructure, including transit. If we take the economic aspect, some European countries will be unhappy that the Poles are blocking the transit of food wheat from Ukraine. Spain, Portugal, Greece and others are happy to buy our wheat, and now the corridor through which it can go to Poland, Germany and the south will be blocked for some time.
What can Ukraine do
- Conduct negotiations, including bilateral ones, with all interested parties.
- Reconsider the transit procedure, possibly redirect cargo traffic in other directions: Germany, the ports of the Baltic countries.
“I think that Ukraine has already reacted at all sites and under all our partnership agreements – both on grain corridors, and on the Polish, Hungarian and Slovak cases.”