The Russian authorities are facing a "headache" in trying to replace Europe's lost gas market. It is not possible to quickly increase pipeline gas supplies to China due to limited capacities, and the construction of a new gas pipeline will take several years. Against this background, the Russian establishment turned its attention to liquefied natural gas (LNG). However, the high level of dependence on Western technologies creates high risks for further ramping up production, as Russia is still a “newcomer” in this industry, writes Bloomberg.
The Russian authorities have set themselves an extremely ambitious goal: to triple LNG exports by the end of 2030. The agency believes that achieving such a goal will be extremely problematic, since Russia is experiencing a shortage of relevant technologies for gas liquefaction, and all current projects within the country were created through the mediation of Western companies that have left the Russian market. Thus, Russia will not only have to increase production, but actually create the technologies necessary for this from scratch, and all this under the conditions of the technological blockade of Western countries.
The leader and de facto monopolist of the Russian LNG market is Novatek. Recently, Russia's largest LNG producer received a patent for a modified Arctic Cascade Process (ACM). This technology is already being used at the fourth stage of the Yamal LNG plant, the largest in Russia. The first three phases of the plant, the agency recalls, were built using foreign equipment, but the company itself assured that all Yamal LNG lines were operating successfully.
“Working with Russian manufacturers gives good results. We know how to solve technical issues,” Novatek responded to the agency’s request regarding dependence on foreign technologies.
Experts interviewed by the agency argue that now the LNG industry will become a priority for Russia: it is simply impossible to quickly find a pipeline replacement for Europe, it is also impossible to increase supplies to China to a scale comparable to Europe, and the construction of new pipelines will take several years. Under these conditions, increasing LNG exports is an understandable and logical step for the Russian administration, says Morena Skalamera, professor of Russian and international studies at the University of Leiden in the Netherlands. She is sure that Russia does not yet have its own working alternatives to Western technologies, but investments in this industry can change the status quo.
Before the war, LNG accounted for only 15% of gas exports from Russia, but in 2022, amid falling pipeline gas supplies, the share of LNG increased significantly. The construction of new plants is a task commensurate in time with the construction of a gas pipeline. The LNG plant is a complex engineering structure spanning hundreds of football fields and costing billions of dollars. A typical plant takes three to four years to build and consists of a maze of pipes that transport, process and then cool the gas down to -160°C before being loaded onto special tankers.
In the near future, the Sakhalin-2 project, an LNG plant in the Far East, will help determine the degree of dependence on Western technologies. It will have to undergo annual maintenance for the first time without the help of Western companies. The work is due to start in July and is scheduled to last about 40 days, which will lead to a decrease in the supply of liquefied gas to world markets and may even lead to higher prices. In the coming years, Novatek planned to launch another plant – Arctic LNG-2, within which it collaborated with the French Technip Energies, the German Linde and the American Baker Hughes.
However, in 2022 they were replaced by the Russian Nova Energies and the unknown Green Energy Solutions registered in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Novatek will probably be able to start the first line of the new plant without any problems, since most of the work was done by Western contractors. But the launch of the second and third lines, which are scheduled for 2024 and 2026, respectively, may be in question, although the Russian company claims that the launch schedule remains in accordance with the plan.