In today's summary:
- The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation is talking about attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on a 95 km long front in the Soledar area and a retreat near Bakhmut;
- Prigozhin criticizes Konashenkov and invites Shoigu to come to Bakhmut;
- The Insider's investigation into the causes and nature of the conflict between Shoigu and Prigozhin;
- Z-"military correspondents" and propagandists are forced to make excuses for reports about the beginning of the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine;
- Video with completely destroyed Maryinka;
- Allegedly internal EU documents on the losses of Ukraine and Russia during the conflict;
- Two explosions sounded in Lugansk, previously inaccessible to Ukrainian missiles;
- Russian tankers are afraid to ride on T-62 tanks, and T-54s are used as self-propelled guns.
The situation at the front
The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation reported that the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to advance on the "Soledar tactical direction" with a length of 95 km with the help of about 1,000 people, 40 tanks, and other equipment. According to the agency, "breakthroughs in the defense of the Russian troops were not allowed."
The withdrawal of Russian troops from Bogdanovka on the northern flank of the Bakhmut direction is described by the Ministry of Defense as follows:
In order to increase the stability of the defense in the Maloiliinovsky direction … the line was occupied, taking into account the favorable conditions of the Berkhovskoye reservoir.
It is worth noting that it is not entirely clear why the Ministry of Defense writes about the “Maloylinovsk direction”, since the settlement of Maloylinovka in the Donetsk region existed until 1965, after which it was included in the administrative territory of the city of Artemovsk (now Bakhmut ). Analysts have speculated that this happened because the Russian General Staff uses maps from the mid-twentieth century. In addition, it is worth noting that recently the Berkhovskoye reservoir has become shallow and has practically ceased to exist.
Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Anna Malyar announced the advance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Bakhmut direction by about 2 km. At the same time, according to her, the Ukrainian troops have not lost a single held position. The representative of the eastern group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Serhiy Cherevaty also said that the Ukrainian forces managed to push the enemy back to a distance of 250 meters to 1.5 kilometers. He explained this by the fact that the Russian units, which are being transferred to the flanks of the Bakhmut group, "for the most part, are equipped with mobilized people who have extremely low motivation."
Associated with PMC Wagner "military commander" Alexander Simonov publishes a new map of the situation in the Bakhmut area.
According to the Rybar Telegram channel affiliated with the Russian Defense Ministry, the advance of Ukrainians north of Bakhmut is also quite serious. The channel writes about the abandoned positions on the eastern outskirts of the village of Bogdanovka and in the "gray zone" in the fields, as well as in the area south of the reservoir to the eastern end of the dam. "Rybar" confirms the advance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine by 2 km into the depth of the front. The channel confirms the presence on the maps of the Russian General Staff of the settlement Maloilinovka , which has not existed since 1965, but for some reason calls it "Malo-Ilyinka" .
Both maps are consistent with the Ministry of Defense's statement about the withdrawal of the Russians to the Berkhovsky reservoir . The new lines are located 2-3 kilometers north of the recent line of contact, which is quite significant by the standards of the battles for Bakhmut , where advancement has so far been measured in tens and hundreds of meters a day. In any case, it is obvious that the Russians left their positions in the area of the Bakhmut-Chasov Yar highway, which should at least partially protect the military equipment and vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine passing along it.
The retreat of Russian troops from their positions in the area of the dried-up Berkhovsky reservoir under the shelling of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which occurred on May 5, can be seen in a video published in the channel of the Ukrainian OSINT project DeepState.
Yevgeny Prigozhin called the wording of the Ministry of Defense about regrouping with the occupation of more advantageous lines "flight." According to him, the Russian army did not make a "tactical retreat" on the flanks, as the representative of the Ministry of Defense Konashenkov said, but ran. Prigozhin notes that the announced by the Ministry of Defense "occupation [by the Russian military] of the line, taking into account the favorable conditions of the Berkhov reservoir " means that "the enemy will approach Bakhmut " at a distance of 500 meters, "occupying all tactical heights."
On the map published in the Russian Z-channel "Voyenkor Yarem" you can see what heights were lost by the Russians
It is worth noting here that representatives of the Ukrainian 3rd Separate Assault Brigade, who are conducting offensive operations near Bakhmut , continue to assert that the Wagnerites, and not the Russian military, left the first positions. For example, this was stated by the commander of one of the assault battalions of the brigade with the call sign "Rollo" in an interview with CNN. He claims that Prigozhin is lying, and the fighters of the RF Armed Forces, whom he criticizes, fought to the last. Rollo also notes that improved weather conditions and the use of HIMARS MLRS against Russian reinforcements played an important role in the Ukrainian counterattack.
Yevgeny Prigozhin himself mentioned that the capture of Bakhmut would do nothing if the city was surrounded, and suggested "stop lying" because this could lead to "a global tragedy for Russia."
Prior to this, Prigozhin's press service published a letter in which he invited Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to Bakhmut , noting his "many years of experience in combat operations." At the same time, Shoigu has no military education, he never served in the army and did not participate in hostilities.
A new investigation by The Insider tells how the conflict between Prigozhin and the Russian Ministry of Defense developed. It notes that the capture of Bakhmut should have been a great military achievement for the head of the PMC Wagner, which would later justify his political ambitions. However, when the "Wagnerites" captured almost the entire city, it became clear that Prigozhin's mercenaries had neither the strength nor the weapons to move on.
Then he decided to hand over the positions to the Kadyrovites, intending to leave gracefully and frame the retreat as a betrayal on the part of the Ministry of Defense, blaming the military department for the lack of shells. However, Kadyrov himself suddenly publicly criticized Prigozhin and promised that “his people” would contact him and explain what to do next. In the video from May 12, which was discussed above, the head of the PMC Wagner complains that the withdrawal of his mercenaries from positions will be regarded as treason.
According to CNN, citing two senior Western military officials, Ukrainian forces have launched "formative" operations in anticipation of an expected counteroffensive against Russian forces. This refers to strikes against targets such as ammunition depots, command centers and artillery systems, which allows you to prepare the battlefield for the advance of ground troops or deceive the enemy as to the direction of the main strike. Such actions are a common practice before large-scale combined-arms operations (suffice it to recall Ukrainian attacks on bridges and crossings in the Kherson region in the summer and autumn of last year) and can continue for quite a long time before large forces are thrown into battle.
Yesterday, a lot of "military correspondents" wrote about the beginning of the long-awaited counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. During the evening and overnight, these messages forced the Ministry of Defense to publish a refutation (which, among other things, mentions the reflection of the attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the direction of the non-existent Maloilinovka ) and turned into an occasion for jokes and memes within the Z-community itself.
Since the limited strikes of the Ukrainian troops on the flanks of the Russian grouping in the Bakhmut area with a very modest advance forward, with all the desire (so far) do not pull on this most repeatedly announced counter-offensive with strategic goals, now the "military corporals" have to make excuses.
In particular, propagandist Anastasia Kashevarova writes on her Telegram channel:
About the counteroffensive. None of the military correspondents did stuffing. The guys wrote the absolute truth that the equipment is on the way, that the fields are being cleared, the contingent is being increased in all directions, that they are tearing the flanks in Artemovsk. And all along the front, boys are dying every day.
This does not mean that everything is on fire in all directions, and thousands of kilometers are on fire. This means that the front begins to noticeably move …
And you should not panic, and scratch your belly too, otherwise I remember how they reassured me about Raisins, and about Balakleya, and about Liman. Mouths were shut, they say, do not sow panic. Nobody sows. Learn to work with information without adding your schizoidness to it.
The WarGonzo project of "military correspondent" Semyon Pegov notes :
How quickly the mood has changed in the Russian telegram segment over the past couple of hours!
From “Everything is lost, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have surrounded Bakhmut and are going to Belgorod!”, to “hee hee, the CIPSO offensive failed in the comments. The enemy suffered heavy losses."
Today's events cannot be taken seriously. The enemy has progress. Somewhere more, somewhere less, but it is, and will have an impact on the further development of events.
The offensive did not begin today or yesterday, the enemy is daily looking for our weak points and trying to hit them.
Finally, the “commander” Yevgeny Poddubny, who, in fact, released a post the day before with the phrase “we will assume that the enemy’s counteroffensive has begun,” recalls the events of the summer-autumn of 2022 near Kharkov :
Conjuncturers have to be reminded of the events of the end of summer and the beginning of autumn last year. Then the enemy counter-offensive began in the south of the Northern Military District. Then the enemy began precisely with rolls with small forces. These were attacks rarely successful from a tactical point of view, but they had already been organized as part of a counteroffensive operation. Sometimes these strikes in the south led to tactical successes.
At this time, the enemy grouping was already operating in the north of the NWO. We all remember how that enemy operation ended. Its active phase lasted much less than the auxiliary one. And we all cannot afford a repetition of such a scenario.
A new video has surfaced showing a panorama of the completely destroyed Marinka , a small suburb of Donetsk , where heavy fighting is taking place. It is worth recalling here that in an interview with ATV on May 10, Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov argued that Russia is not fighting in Ukraine, since a real war would mean "destruction of infrastructure, total destruction of cities." However, it is precisely such an apocalyptic picture that Maryinka presents.
Mutual shelling and sabotage
In the afternoon, explosions thundered in Luhansk . After that, Russian channels began to actively publish videos of “serious fires”. The passage of "something sounding like an airplane" was reported , followed by a whistle and the sound of an explosion. The Russian propaganda publication Daily Storm wrote about getting into the Poli-pack paint factory. However, his building is across the street from the one that was hit. In general, eyewitnesses noted thick black smoke, which initially led to assumptions about the defeat of the fuel and lubricants warehouse.
Before that, residents of Kramatorsk , which is controlled by Ukraine, reported launching missiles over the city. Later, a photo of the wreckage of the American ADM-160B MALD decoy missile, taken in Luhansk, appeared . The delivery of such missiles to Ukraine has not been previously reported. This may indicate that the attack was carried out using air-launched cruise missiles, while decoys were used to divert air defenses.
Luhansk is more than 90 km from the front line, which makes it inaccessible to GMLRS missiles launched by HIMARS. The strike on this city may mean that Ukraine used the British Storm Shadow cruise missiles with a range of more than 250 km for the first time. The UK announced their delivery on May 11.
The importance of Luhansk as a logistical hub of Russian forces, inaccessible to GMLRS missiles, was clearly described back in November last year by the DefMon3 Twitter analyst. Then he concluded that in order to disrupt Russian logistics, Ukraine now needed long-range missiles, the first of which were the recently delivered Storm Shadow. In turn, in its regular report, the Conflict Intelligence Team research group notes that the use of such missiles by the Armed Forces of Ukraine "will turn the tide of the war."
"Military correspondents" report about the shelling of the Kievsky district of Donetsk , as a result of which one person was killed. Several small puffs of smoke can be seen in the video.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine fired at the village of Poroz in the Graivoronovsky urban district of the Belgorod region . There were no injuries, but two houses and a car were damaged.
In the area of Paraskoveevka , artillerymen of the 45th separate artillery brigade destroyed the Russian Pantsir-C1 anti-aircraft missile and gun system.
The Investigative Committee of Russiareported on the explosion in Melitopol and. O. Deputy head of the occupation "Ministry of construction, architecture and housing and communal services of the Zaporozhye region." His name is not called. According to the Russian Investigative Committee, an improvised explosive device planted in a trash can near the entrance of a residential building exploded next to the man.
Losses
As it became known from internal EU documents that fell into the hands of journalists from the EURACTIV publication, the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are estimated at 13,000 killed and 35,000 wounded. At the same time, it is not entirely clear whether the difference between the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Defense Forces of Ukraine is taken into account, which also includes the National Guard, the border service and other departments.
The documents also indicate that, according to US estimates, Kiev's losses are 17,500 killed and 124,000 to 131,000 retired due to injury, death, missing or otherwise.
Russian losses in the document are estimated at 185,000 killed and 555,000 wounded. It is noted that this is the data provided by the Ukrainian side.
In November 2022, the head of the Joint Chief of Staff of the United States, Mark Milley, estimated both Russian and Ukrainian losses at 100,000 people on both sides. Documents that appeared in the leaked secret information of American intelligence testified that the Russians lost from 189 to 200 thousand personnel, of which 43 thousand were killed. British intelligence also reported about 200,000 Russian troops wounded and killed since the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
A Russian Mi-28 helicopter crashed near Dzhankoy in Crimea . The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation reported that this happened "during the performance of a planned training flight." Both pilots died, and equipment failure was named as the cause of the crash.
Armaments and military equipment
The Military Informant Telegram channel draws attention to photos of the North Macedonian Su-25 attack aircraft handed over to Ukraine. Among other things, it is alleged that the aircraft was upgraded to the Su-25M1 standard already on the territory of Ukraine. This means, the authors of the channel emphasize, that “there should still be an aircraft repair plant in the country that ensures the repair and modernization of aircraft.”
A new video has appeared demonstrating the problems of using Russian FABs equipped with universal planning and correction modules (UMPC). The Military Informant channel suggests that guidance problems can be explained not only by the “raw” design of the product, but also, for example, by a gunner’s mistake or the impact of Ukrainian electronic warfare (recall, it was previously reported that American JDAM “smart” bombs experience similar problems , whose Russian counterpart is often called UMPC).
Telegram channel “Tanks. History and Modernity” spoke about the peculiarities of the use by Russians of outdated T-54/55 and T-62 tanks in the combat zone. From the posts regarding these combat vehicles, which were developed and produced in the middle of the last century, you can find out that the first ones are used as self-propelled guns and work in a howitzer division. The second ones go to tank units as line tanks, however, “in the usual units, there are few who want to go ramming with a supporter for direct fire on this pepelats, so they shoot at a 125 mm art block [that is, according to tables for another gun, since the caliber of the gun is T -62 is 115mm – approx. The Insider] on the phone and there are already being corrected from the drone .”
Russian T-62M
The Conflict Intelligence Team writes that the number of vehicles on parades in honor of Victory Day is declining from year to year. In 2021, 2009 units of equipment participated in them throughout Russia, in 2022 – 1275, in 2023 – 912. This decrease is due, among other things, to the fact that parades were canceled in some cities in the border areas. It is noted that although there was only one T-34-85 tank at the Moscow parade this year, CIT volunteers counted 43 “ceremonial” tanks across Russia (last year there were 71). Also at the parades there is a significant decrease in the number of air defense systems – 67 in 2023 against 137 in 2022.
About the main events of the war on May 11 – in the previous report: “ The Armed Forces of Ukraine are fighting off the flanks in Bakhmut, Ukraine will receive “almost indestructible” cruise missiles with a range of 250 km. What's happening on the front lines ."
