Today Brussels hosted a trilateral meeting between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and European Council President Charles Michel. It was reported that the leaders of the two countries will discuss the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, the draft peace agreement and the possibility of stabilizing relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The next meeting between Pashinyan and Aliyev may take place on June 1 in Chisinau at the summit of the European Political Community. It will again be attended by Michel, as well as French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
At the meeting in Brussels, despite reports that a peace treaty was being discussed, no treaty was signed. In a conversation with The Insider, political scientist and expert on Central Asia, Arkady Dubnov, said that there was not even a chance for this:
“This time there was no expectation in Brussels that a final peace document would be agreed upon. And so it happened. It is nice that the meeting took place at all, and this is a significant merit of Pashinyan, who did not refuse the meeting, despite the armed incident, apparently inspired by the Azerbaijanis the other day.
Meetings in the European format will continue further in Chisinau and again in Brussels. But if we take into account the statement of [Vladimir Putin's press secretary] Dmitry Peskov that the formula for a peaceful solution without alternative should be found only on the basis of previously signed bilateral agreements between Yerevan, Baku and Moscow, we can expect the Kremlin to demarches. It can torpedo the current Brussels process if the Europeans, Yerevan and Baku do not do something to “save face” for Moscow and pull it into the peace process.
A peace agreement, at best, should not be expected until late summer or early autumn. And it is important to remember that in Baku they are only ready to resort to forceful instruments of forcing Yerevan to peace practically on Azerbaijani terms. And it will also be important to consider whether Erdogan will remain the president of Turkey.”
