On May 27, a clash broke out between Iranian border guards and the Taliban on Iran's border with Afghanistan, resulting in several deaths. Iran closed the main commercial border crossing between the countries, Milak-Zaranj, after the incident.
Associate professor at the University of Nottingham in Malaysia, Yulia Rocknifard, told The Insider that minor clashes between Iran and Afghanistan are inevitable in the future, but one should not be afraid of a full-scale war, since it is absolutely unprofitable for both sides.
“For the Taliban, war is the main occupation that many Taliban have been doing all their lives. This is not to say that the Taliban, having come to power, suddenly became an ordinary government, and it is not surprising that border disputes with skirmishes arise. Another thing is that Iran is still very important for Afghanistan, they have very large-scale trade ties. Afghanistan relies heavily on Iran. It is believed that Iran viewed the rise of the Taliban to power as strategically beneficial to itself. Despite the fact that Iran has not [officially] recognized the Taliban government, many meetings take place between the authorities of the countries. In addition, Iran allowed the Taliban to use the building of the Afghan embassy in Tehran.
In Afghanistan, there is no readiness for a full-scale war, unless Pakistan gives them weapons. Iran is a much stronger power than Afghanistan, but the length of the border between the countries is 800 km, which is quite a lot for its security and open conflict. This requires huge resources, which Iran has to devote elsewhere, in addition to the war with its neighbor.
Even under the first Taliban government, Iranian diplomats in the city of Mazar-i-Sharif were simply killed [in 1998]. Iran even then did not start a full-scale conflict.”
Tehran and Kabul clash over separate issues, one of which is the use of water from the Helmand River. An agreement was signed between the countries in 1973, according to which Iran, located downstream, should receive a certain amount of water. Lately, Iranian authorities have claimed that there is not enough water coming in, leaving the province of Sistan and Balochistan suffering from drought, and have accused the Afghans of blocking and diverting the flow. The Afghan side denies these accusations, complaining about climate change and water shortages.
“Last week, President Ibrahim Raisi was pretty tough on the water dispute. Some Taliban filmed videos mocking his statements. There was a video in which one of the Taliban leaders scoops up a canister of water from the Helmand River and says: “Oh, how we are afraid. Here, I poured you a canister of water. Take away and don't attack, please."
There are disputes over procedural issues among technical Iranian experts. Afghanistan won't let them see what's wrong, but there is information from satellites about the diversion of water. Sistan and Balochistan is the driest province, there is generally a problem with water supply, climate change has hit it very hard, and it is a very poor province. As we know, there have been protests in Iran in recent years, especially since last September. They are supported by various segments of the population, and the topic of the economic development of Sistan and Balochistan is also raised. These processes of aridity have been going on for 30 years. For Iran, it also has political implications – this dispute over water.”