Marfa Smirnova: Stanislav Alexandrovich, hello! Thank you very much for this interview. The main news of the week – or rather, the news of the week: drones are flying in the sky over Moscow, they are already arriving at the entrances. The feeling that this apathy or this belief in stability persists. How do you explain this?
Stanislav Belkovsky: Good afternoon, Martha! Thanks a lot for the invitation! No, I would not say that it is preserved. Actually, these drone attacks themselves, including on the Moscow region, were aimed at psychologically destabilizing inexpensive Russians. However, they were also expensive, since most of the drones sent on May 30 flew precisely to the area of the Rublevo-Uspenskoye highway, elite residences, including the residence of President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin himself, and, of course, to important objects of the Russian strategic forces – the main command post ground-based nuclear forces, which is located in the closed urban-type settlement of Vlasikha in the same place, in the Odintsovo district of the Moscow region, not far from Putin's residence Novo-Ogaryovo. And the next day, on May 31, and in addition, on June 1, the drones flew to the Kaluga region, where Balabanovo-1, a reserve command post for nuclear forces, is located.
That is, thereby it was demonstrated that, on the one hand, the Ukrainian side is well aware of where the key positions are located, which should be hit. Now these are drones that did not fly and did not explode, but tomorrow they may be, for example, long-range German Taurus missiles, the supply of which is being discussed by Ukraine. On the other hand, to show the Russians that the war is taking place right in their homes. That it is not somewhere far away, that everyone is involved in this process, and not only residents of the border regions of the Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk regions, but also directly in Moscow.
And to some extent it worked out. It seems to me that the idea that anything can happen now and that the fighting is really taking place right on the streets of Moscow, and not somewhere away from them, is beginning to take shape.
Marfa Smirnova: I will quote my colleague Dmitry Kolezev. He wrote on June 1: “Some dementia. Putin is at war in Russia, and he is holding a meeting in honor of Children's Day, at which he declares that Santa Claus is more important than him, and for a long time he rejoices that children can communicate with animals. Do you agree with Kolezev's assessment that this is already dementia, or is it still some kind of desire to distract people from what is happening? From the same drones.
Stanislav Belkovsky: I do not undertake to assess the mental health of Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, but I do not see any dementia here. This is his conscious position and strategic line to appease the situation, to demonstrate that there is no war. There is a special military operation on the territory of another country, which, in accordance with the latest Kremlin doctrine (however, it is no longer the latest, it has been in existence for several months), is not offensive, but defensive. Russia did not attack Ukraine, it was the US and NATO, according to the Kremlin version, that attacked Russia through the territory of Ukraine. And in order to prevent a big war, which does not exist, it was necessary to launch a special operation, which, like, exists.
That is why Vladimir Putin does not make any significant adjustments either to his schedule or to the system of his rituals. All assigned activities must be carried out. It is no coincidence that parliament has just passed a law on holding elections under martial law. Martial law has been introduced only in the annexed territories of Ukraine, that is, in the “DPR”, “LPR”, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, and even in the territories bordering Ukraine, canonical Russia has not been introduced. Which, by the way, formally prevents the creation of territorial defense structures in these regions, which today only the lazy do not talk about. But if this lazy person had looked into the legislation, he would have seen there that the therodefense can be created only in a situation of martial law, which formally does not exist.
Vladimir Putin must emphasize with all his behavior that everything is going according to plan, everything is fine, peaceful life continues, despite the fact that drones fly directly into residential buildings in the center of Moscow.
Marfa Smirnova: So, in general, do you think Putin's behavior and reaction to everything that happens this week is quite adequate, does it somehow fit into his usual paradigm?
Stanislav Belkovsky: He is adequate to himself. Many military leaders, military experts, including ardent supporters of the special operation Z, believe that Putin is behaving completely inappropriately, since in the conditions of a big war he acts by ignoring this military reality. But Putin is Putin, he is all in it. He always psychologically defends himself from an unpleasant reality by ignoring it on the principle of “I will close my eyes and you will all disappear” and calls on all compatriots to do the same. Many compatriots are ready to follow this. The easiest way is to deny the mortal danger that hangs over you, because only in this case you can not constantly think about it and thus not be a hostage to this system of fear.
Another thing is that Putin is not just a Russian – he is still the president and commander in chief, who is responsible for the security of the Russian Federation. But something is wrong with the security of the Russian Federation. Many times, from the very beginning of the special operation Z, we were told that if at least one hair falls from the head of a Russian on the canonical, internationally recognized territory of the Russian Federation, the answer will be devastating. If there are shelling of border areas and so on, then these are “red lines” that Russia will never allow anyone to cross.
Today we see not only shelling, but also raids by sabotage and reconnaissance groups deep into Russian territory. Finally, we see explosions at strategic airfields, located very far from the border with Ukraine, in the capital region. The wreckage of drones is raining down on elite dachas in the Rublevo-Uspenskoe highway area. But it seems that no one crossed the "red lines". It is no coincidence that the world media is already stating the fact that the United States of America has realized that Putin's de facto "red lines" are a big bluff and should be treated accordingly.
Apparently, despite the fact that last year Putin was psychologically ready to use tactical nuclear weapons and implement a scenario similar to the Japanese one in 1945 in Ukraine… right. At the same time, Kremlin propaganda deliberately overlooked the fact that the United States used it at the end of World War II, in which they themselves were the object of aggression by Japan. One can argue for a long time whether the use of nuclear weapons and the strikes on Hiroshima and Nagasaki were justified or unjustified – there are different points of view on this topic. But it was certainly not an unmotivated event out of the blue. While Russia is not formally at war with Ukraine, it is much more difficult to motivate the use of tactical nuclear weapons in such a situation, to put it mildly. But as if it was believed that if this happens, then Ukraine will immediately capitulate, as Japan capitulated after the US nuclear bombings in 1945 of the last century. However, it is now obvious that Ukraine will not capitulate in this case, since a tactical nuclear strike on Ukraine will not cause unacceptable damage, but, on the contrary, will contribute to all kinds of mobilization and rallying of the Ukrainian people around the idea of a war against Russia to a victorious end.
In addition, Vladimir Putin's surviving international partners – in particular, the Chinese partner of Chinese President Xi Jinping – make it clear in every possible way that the use of weapons of mass destruction in any form and format is unacceptable and Putin will not be able to count on their support if he dares to such a step. That is why the "red lines" have become extremely blurred.
Marfa Smirnova: Excuse me, let me go back to the beginning of your answer. You said that military leaders understand that Putin is behaving inappropriately. Where do you see signs of this?
Stanislav Belkovsky: Well, some military leaders. I see this, in particular, in the comments of such a well-known military leader as Yevgeny Viktorovich Prigozhin, who is clearly dissatisfied with individual manifestations of the supreme commander in chief. Although he carefully hides his opposition to Putin's position and, of course, officially and formally remains completely loyal to the president. Indeed, he has no other option, no choice. He must be loyal to Putin, because, having lost the support of Vladimir Putin, he will simply be torn apart by competing clans and firms in the presidential environment. And the demarches of Ramzan Akhmatovich Kadyrov, Kadyrov's command in relation to Prigozhin, which have just sounded and shone on the Internet, testify to this.
But one way or another, many supporters of special operation Z point out that it is necessary to recognize the reality of a big war, in which Russia today does not win at all. She rather loses it. For Putin, such recognition is impossible. It contradicts the foundations of his being and consciousness, the basic principles of his psychology and worldview.
Marfa Smirnova: You yourself have gone over to Yevgeny Prigozhin and Kadyrov. What do you think this public conflict might result in? And again, why does Vladimir Putin personally need such publicity of this conflict?
Stanislav Belkovsky: Vladimir Putin has always strengthened the regime of his personal power against the backdrop of conflicts between various groups of influence in his environment. It's not that he likes it, but it is a necessary condition for his existence as a moderator of the elites, including the moderator of intra-elite conflicts. As long as the elites are not consolidated, but are at war with each other (and it has always been like this, it’s just that there hasn’t always been a war and these conflicts have not always spilled out so brightly and sharply into the public plane, far from always), one way or another, Vladimir remains the arbiter in any such situation. Putin. He is an absolutely indispensable bond of this system as long as the elites cannot agree within themselves and make some decisions of a political nature.
Therefore, the conflict between Prigozhin and Kadyrov is beneficial to him. This is just a comfortable environment for him. I do not rule out that he himself subtly feeds him, as he knows how, since Vladimir Vladimirovich is a rather cunning intriguer. As one of his relatives, who personally knew me, said about him, “what you can’t refuse Volodya is the ability to stir up.”
So, on the one hand, of course, this suggests that the system is going haywire if it does not see other forms of exchange of tough opinions between key players, except for publicity and statements on the Internet. As Adam Delimkhanov said in absentia to Evgeny Prigozhin, "you have become a blogger." Didn't Delimkhanov himself become a blogger? Is it by chance that the Chechen forces in Ukraine have acquired the brand and reputation of the tiktok-warrior? Which, of course, will now be denied in every possible way, but I'm not sure that they are ready to make the same sacrifices in the Ukrainian non-war as the Wagner PMC, for which "meat assaults", associated with unlimited losses of manpower, are an organic part of the concept rather than systemic excesses. Naturally, neither the proud Vainakhs of Ramzan Akhmatovich Kadyrov, nor the elite units of the Airborne Forces are ready for such losses as in the Wagner PMC. For this reason alone, it is not obvious that they are ready to fully replace the Wagnerites on Ukrainian soil.
But the regime of power of Putin as a moderator, Putin as an appeaser, Putin as an arbitrator, such conflicts, as I have already said, only strengthen.
Marfa Smirnova: I would like to return to sabotage. If we talk about the RDK, about the "Russian Legion", can we say that we are already on the outskirts of a civil war? Because, in fact, the Russian went with weapons against the Russian.
Stanislav Belkovsky: If you listen to Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, then, in fact, special operation Z is a civil war. Because he claims that Ukrainians are also Russians, only a side view. And that means that Russian intensively went to Russian back in the spring of 2014, and already in full and on a scale on February 24, 2022. But so far I don’t know what the RDK and the Legion of Freedom of Russia really are. I think very few people actually represent it. Still, in my opinion, these are dependent structures of the Ukrainian special services, located under the roof, first of all, of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. Therefore, I would not yet speak of them as some kind of serious internal Russian force.
But, in the end, the clash between the Wagner PMC and the Kadyrovites is more an act of civil war than the sorties of the RDK and the like in the Belgorod region. Although, indeed, both the “Legion Freedom of Russia” and the Russian Volunteer Corps, recognized as extremist and banned in the Russian Federation, along with the white-blue-white flag under which they act, will be positioned as a subject of such a civil war, as a force that , as they themselves claim, is capable of liberating Russia.
They will not be able to liberate Russia, I think, but they may well try to implement some scenarios similar to the “DNR” and “LNR” of 2014 on Russian territory, especially if the Ukrainian troops give them additional reinforcements. Why not proclaim some kind of Russian Republic in the Belgorod and Bryansk regions and hold a referendum there on secession from the Russian Federation? Indeed, when it became clear that the RDK and the Legion of Freedom of Russia had armored vehicles, representatives of the Office of the President of Ukraine ironically noted that since 2014 we know that such equipment can be bought at any military store. So why, indeed, symmetrically not apply the same scenario that Russia used in the spring of 2014 in the Donbas?
Marfa Smirnova: And how do you feel about the personality of Denis Kapustin, the leader of the RDK? All these nationalist views, talk about the white race … Now, as I understand it, there is a discussion whether it is worth forgetting about this at all – that he is actually a neo-Nazi, against the background of the fact that he and his group are sabotaging the border.
Stanislav Belkovsky: I am not personally acquainted with Mr. Kapustin. As a retired political consultant, but with extensive experience in this field, I am well aware that it is not always possible to identify a person's public statements with their real content. Sometimes it is a system of masks that does not reflect reality.
On the other hand, I have always believed and still believe that it is the Russian nationalists who can be most effective in the fight against such a type of political regime as Putin's, that is, the regime of a nationless kleptocracy. Moreover, this is well understood by a person much more influential and informed than I am, Vladimir Putin himself, who did a lot precisely for the intense persecution of Russian nationalism, which has always remained the main enemy of the Kremlin. What Putin has said publicly is that more than anything else, he hates Russian nationalism. And in this sense, he did not dissemble at all.
What system of views these people will adhere to in the foreseeable future and whether they are converted into some kind of real political, and not just sabotage force, we will see in the coming months, and maybe even years. Now it is too early to talk about it.
Marfa Smirnova: But wait, then the question is head-on: Putin in some beautiful Russia of the future will be overthrown by nationalists or conditional associates of Navalny?
Stanislav Belkovsky: No, I think that Vladimir Putin's associates will overthrow him. This is the most likely scenario. In any case, we do not know how and when Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin will leave power. To date, the system still needs it as a brace. And forgive me for repeating myself, Prigozhin and Kadyrov prove this rather than refute it. Prigozhin and Kadyrov would have shot each other if it were not for the President of the Russian Federation, the guarantor of their common security, which he understands perfectly well, and the guarantor of their legitimacy, in fact, because who would they be without the President of the Russian Federation? Including who Kadyrov would be in Chechnya, and Prigozhin in the theater of operations, if both of them did not have an informal power of attorney from Vladimir Vladimirovich, and in the case of Kadyrov, a formal one too, since he is the official head of the subject of the federation.
But if and when Putin leaves power, his own associates will come to replace him. It will not be the RDK and not the people of Alexei Anatolyevich Navalny. It will be a collegiate leadership made up of the current representatives of the Putin team, as was the case after the death of Joseph Stalin in 1953 in the Soviet Union. And the closest associates of Vladimir Putin, of course, may turn out to be completely non-Putinist in their views when they come to power, since they will not be fettered by the main limiter – Putin himself.
Марфа Смирнова: А какая оппозиционная сила эффективнее — РДК, Капустин, «Русский легион», бело-голубой флаг или все-таки ФБК, которые рассказывают о коррупции, сторонники Алексея Навального, которые 4 июня призывают выйти на митинги? Кто сегодня более эффективен?
Станислав Белковский: Современная РФ практически полностью превратилась в тоталитарное государство, а не просто авторитарное. А в тоталитарном государстве оппозиция всегда маргинальна. Она не может прийти к власти, пока система не разрушилась изнутри. Как это, собственно, и было в Советском Союзе, где не было никакой реальной оппозиции, пока Михаил Горбачев не отпустил вожжи и пока эта оппозиция не возникла из недр правящей партии КПСС. Ярким олицетворением этого стал Борис Ельцин, во многом разрушивший Советский Союз и покончивший с властью Коммунистической партии, чем, впрочем, занимался и сам Михаил Горбачев.
Точно так же будет и в современной России. Ни ФБК, ни РДК не могут восприниматься как серьезные внутриполитические силы. Они, конечно, является существенными раздражителями, особенно в новой информационной реальности, когда есть интернет, которого в Советском Союзе не было. Но не будем забывать, что Российская Федерация идет путем внедрения китайского Firewall, китайского образца ограничения интернета. Я думаю, что в обозримой перспективе возможностей получать информацию о деятельности РДК ли, ФБК ли у недорогих россиян, находящихся на канонической территории РФ, будет гораздо меньше. Поэтому сегодня не может быть никакого предметного политического сценария смены власти в РФ.
Тем более мы должны понимать, что США не заинтересованы в полном крахе Российской Федерации и Владимира Путина. Он для них тоже остается в известной степени меньшим злом по сравнению с распадом РФ и полной хаотизацией занимаемой ею сейчас территории, когда ядерное оружие и прочие многочисленные ресурсы могут оказаться в руках совершенно непредсказуемых и неконтролируемых никем группировок.
Марфа Смирнова: Ну хорошо, даже если не будет работать интернет, дроны в подъезды-то все равно смогут залетать. И тогда получается, что РДК или «Русский легион» будут иметь куда большее влияние на общественное мнение, на умы россиян.
Станислав Белковский: Разумеется. Но это не означает, что РДК завтра возьмет Москву. Для РДК и «Русского легиона», на мой взгляд, наиболее продуктивный сценарий, если им удастся сколотить военизированные соединения не из нескольких десятков, как сейчас, а из нескольких десятков тысяч человек, как ЧВК Вагнера, — это именно реализовать сепаратистский сценарий в граничащих с Украиной регионах. Это максимум, на что они способны. И потом как бы в издевательском режиме предложить РФ нечто вроде Минских соглашений, аналог Минских соглашений образца 2014–2015 годов, которые РФ тогда навязала Украине под дулом автомата. Но будут ли они на это способны, посмотрим.
Собственно, они нужны на сегодняшний день Украине еще и потому, что Украина обещала западным партнерам не вести боевых действий на международно признанной территории РФ. Поэтому, в полном соответствии с канонами современной гибридной войны, она использует прокси-соединения, такие как РДК и этот легион. Опять же, не будем забывать, что на сегодняшний день во многом эти подразделения под контролем спецслужб Украины. Не надо забывать об этой их роли тоже. Что, естественно, их несколько сковывает как отдельных политических игроков внутрироссийского замеса.
Марфа Смирнова: Последний вопрос про ситуацию на фронте, где все, кажется, несколько заморозилось. Нам обещали контрнаступление. Подоляк сказал, что да, оно идет, но мы не видим пока плодов этого контрнаступления. Пригожин, опять же, говорит, что никаких успехов на фронте нет, ну вот как-то был Бахмут… Что дальше ожидать, по-вашему, от развития ситуации непосредственно на поле военных действий и как на это будут реагировать в России?
Станислав Белковский: Я согласен с тем, что контрнаступление уже началось. Просто не будем забывать, что мы живем в условиях и в эпоху гибридной сетецентричной войны, децентрализованной войны, где, собственно, атака дронов на московский регион уже может считаться элементом контрнаступления. Ведь тем самым Украина демонстрирует, что командные пункты ядерных сил РФ уязвимы для нее. Это элемент контрнаступления? Конечно, потому что психологическая компонента в войне ничуть не менее важна, чем собственно военная. Или вылазки РДК и «Легиона Свобода России» — это элемент контрнаступления? Да, это разведка боем, но это еще и система психологического воздействия на РФ, которая входят в концепцию современного наступления, современной гибридной войны.
Поэтому Украина может нанести массированные удары там, где она будет видеть максимальное количество слабых мест у РФ. А все, что происходит, диктует необходимость определенного отвода российских войск с территории Украины на собственную, международно признанную, для защиты тех же приграничных регионов — и, значит, способствует ослаблению военной группировки РФ на аннексированных украинских землях.
Естественно, РФ это тоже понимает, готовится, заминировала очень значительную часть украинской территории, чтобы не дать вооруженным силам Украины наступать. Наступление ожидается в самых разных местах — от Энергодара, где находится Запорожская АЭС, до Джанкоя и Крыма, непосредственно точек доступа в Крым.
Об этом мы узнаем в ближайшие недели. Владимир Зеленский сказал, что дата контрнаступления уже одобрена. Но еще раз возвращаюсь к мысли, что все события на фронте, которые влияют на психологическую ситуацию и показывают, что Россия в военном отношении становится все слабее, уже могут считаться элементами контрнаступления. Значит, оно уже действительно идет.
Марфа Смирнова: А готов ли будет Путин пойти на какие-то более радикальные шаги, чтобы переломить эту застойную ситуацию на фронте?
Станислав Белковский: Мы с вами уже говорили сегодня, что если в прошлом году Путин был близок к применению тактического ядерного оружия, то сейчас он находится от этой версии значительно дальше, и вообще от применения оружия массового уничтожения. Путин сегодня во многом рассчитывает на всяческих международных посредников. Он рассчитывает и на Китай, чей представитель Ли Хуэй побывал уже и в Киеве, и в Москве. Он рассчитывает на десант шести африканских президентов, которые посетят Киев и Москву под предлогом того, что Африка не может выжить без российских удобрений, а также российской и украинской пшеницы. Там важным лоббистом выступает бизнесмен с сомнительной репутацией Жан-Ив Оливье, который де-факто лоббирует интересы российских производителей удобрений, но все это преподносится под знаменем вящих интересов Африки.
В конце концов, Путин рассчитывает и на США, которые, опять же, не заинтересованы в тотальном разгроме России и в том, чтобы война затягивалась слишком сильно, потому что к следующим президентским выборам администрация Джозефа Байдена должна подойти с какими-то осязаемыми результатами этой войны, учитывая, что и в американских элитах, и в американском народе усталость от войны в Европе тоже нарастает, не говоря уже об элитах и народах европейских.
То есть Путин считает, что ему не придется применять крайние меры, потому что международные посреднические механизмы и инструменты сработают и позволят ему зафиксировать ситуацию, при которой под его фактическим контролем, под фактическим контролем РФ и Кремля остаются примерно 16% украинской территории — тот самый сухопутный коридор на Крым.
Украина с этим категорически не согласна. Она намерена биться полностью за возвращение границ 1991 года. Но и она сегодня подвергается достаточно серьезному давлению со стороны старших международных партнеров во главе с США. Поэтому ближайшие недели покажут, по какому именно сценарию дальше будут развиваться события.
Марфа Смирнова: Но Пригожин же сам призывал поставить Россию на военные рельсы. Я не до конца понимаю, что это значит. Может быть, срочников отправлять на фронт? Хотя они и так в приграничных регионах есть.
Станислав Белковский: НРЗБ в Белгородской области, конечно. Раз они охраняют каноническую границу, значит, они уже на фронте. Собственно, в последних боях в районе Шебекина участвовало 20 пограничников и 20 срочников.
Марфа Смирнова: Ну хорошо, военные рельсы, о которых говорит Пригожин…
Станислав Белковский: Военные рельсы Пригожина недостижимы, потому что в России нет соответствующего мобилизационного ресурса, в первую очередь психологического. Не будем забывать поэтому, что Евгений Викторович Пригожин еще играет роль «плохого парня» по сравнению с Владимиром Путиным. Это его важная роль. Путин хочет оставаться всегда меньшим злом. В этом смысле в качестве большего зла выдвигается Евгений Пригожин, чтобы Путин мог сказать кому угодно, включая западных партнеров, с которыми он все же, несмотря на полностью испорченные отношения, находится в тайном диалоге: «Смотрите, если не я, то Пригожин. Кто вам нравится больше? Поэтому берегите меня».
