Undermining the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station hits the positions of both the Russian and Ukrainian sides. However, the leadership of the Russian Federation could take this step in order to contain the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and in order to cut off Crimea for Ukraine, according to Ukrainian military experts interviewed by The Insider.
According to the adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Sergey Leshchenko , Putin did not want to give up Crimea even to the detriment of water supplies through the Dnieper. He probably chose the lesser of two evils – the dehydration of the Crimea or its complete loss. Leshchenko stated this in The Insider stream.
“The motive is absolutely clear – this is the counteroffensive of Ukraine and the possibility of losing Crimea itself. Putin has two alternatives – the loss of water or the loss of the peninsula. In the event of the inevitable transition of the Ukrainian military to the left bank, they would go to the land borders with Crimea and take both Crimea and the Crimean bridge under fire control, which as a result <…> would become unusable and would not be able to provide military supplies to peninsula from the side of officially recognized territories of Russia. That is, these were attempts to preserve Crimea, even to the detriment of water supplies through the Dnieper. <…> As for other motives, it is pouring in the state that Putin built everything, he decided to resort to such extraordinary actions, the agenda is now changing. And in this agenda, he will try to blame Ukraine, to consolidate his elites again, promising that the inevitable defeat is either canceled or postponed. The life of the Crimeans does not worry him much, he is worried about his own future. At the same time, the flooding goes in the direction that Russia controls, these are territories that are occupied by Russia.”
Military expert Roman Svitan believes that Russian troops blew up the hydroelectric dam, as they understood that Ukraine would soon launch an offensive south of Kherson.
“The Ukrainian units were ready to cross the Dnieper in the area of the Kinburn Spit, and it was this readiness that prompted the Russians to blow up the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station in order to demolish our units or at least force them to leave the islands. The task was completed – the Russians blew up the charge that was located there last year. They pulled up more engineering charges and detonated. This will delay the forcing of the Dnieper for about one and a half to two weeks, which was planned in the near future by Ukrainian troops. There is a military sense in this when there are not enough forces and means to hold a breakthrough. The Russians considered that the destruction of their positions on the left bank was better than losing them now. At least for now, that's all. So yes, there is a military logic in undermining.”
According to military expert Sergei Grabsky , artillery strikes on the dam could not lead to such destruction. At the same time, Grabsky notes that the Russians are driving themselves into a trap, destroying their own defensive structures.
“This is Russian sabotage, obviously. It makes no sense for Ukraine to do this. This is our land, and destroying our facilities, endangering the lives and health of at least 92,000 people, is completely pointless. It is impossible to say that this was the result of numerous blows, because there were blows before, we also survived the winter flood, nothing happened, and in June there was a breakthrough from the inside. There are strikes on the HIMARS Antonovsky Bridge, and even those did not lead to such large-scale destruction. With this flooding, the Russian military poses a threat of cutting off the Kinburn Spit. They can no longer maintain it in a combat-ready state, because, most likely, this direction will be flooded. Ukraine has every chance to advance in that direction and already jeopardize facilities in Crimea. One could consider this Kherson triangle as a kind of replica of the right bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region, with the difference that in the Kherson operation there were at least three possible crossings plus pontoon crossings. And here, in the event of a breakthrough of Ukrainian troops to the coast of the Sea of Azov, those [Russians] will find themselves in a more difficult position, because they actually have one or two narrow isthmuses that connect them with the Crimea. This will colossally hamper their ability to settle down and conduct defensive operations. They are driving themselves into a trap. They have been building these defensive structures on the coast for so long, and at one moment it all goes under water. They actually washed away their defensive line. I can't understand the logic. At the very beginning, the question of expediency was raised, and we all said: “Guys, what, in this sense, besides terror?” Terror is the only thing that comes to mind."
Ukrainian military and public figure, major general of the Security Service of Ukraine, ex-deputy chairman of the SBU Viktor Yagun believes that the Russians simply did not calculate the force of the explosion.
“The explosives were planted there a long time ago, and they tried to either destroy the station itself or the canvas. Given that we also spoiled the canvas before that, they did not calculate the force of the explosion and got what they got. At 11:00, the power station itself was completely flooded. The water rose to such a level that it almost reached Kherson. The Kakhovka reservoir was built in 1958 in order to provide Crimea with water. It was only later that a nuclear power plant was built, which was also fed from there with water. After the water in the Kakhovka reservoir decreases even by five meters, this canal will cease to exist and will not be able to pump water. At the moment, there is no water in Kerch anymore.”