Residents of Nova Kakhovka before the destruction of the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station heard explosions and saw a signal rocket, they discuss what happened on the morning of June 6 in the city's Telegram channels and chats. After the dam broke and the station was flooded, Russia and Ukraine blamed each other for what happened, and both sides denied claims of their involvement. The exact causes of the destruction are unknown, and the occupying authorities of the Russian Federation now may not conduct an investigation, since a corresponding resolution was adopted a week before the incident. Read more about what is known so far in the analysis of The Insider.
What the locals are talking about
From the very morning, on the Telegram channel about Nova Kakhovka, where there are more than five thousand participants, people began to report that they had heard explosions, someone had lost water, and someone had already suggested that a dam could break.
Residents argued among themselves, some argued that if the dam had exploded, then all services, including the Ministry of Emergency Situations, would have already notified them. One of the residents wrote in Ukrainian at 2:45 Moscow time that he saw a flare.
“The water is very noisy … very loud, I have never heard anything like it. I'm scared of something… orange flares."
Resident Lidia Kuznetsova replied: “But that’s water, but why is it so audible? With such bakhs we can again be without light.
Several dozen people noted that they could not sleep because of the noise, and they were worried that something had happened. However, other residents reassured them and claimed that they did not see the “global flood”, did not hear the explosions and asked not to panic.
“This is done so that weak people panic and leave, liberate their homes, it’s like you are the first day in the occupation.”
It is worth noting that the pro-Russian mayor of the flooded Nova Kakhovka at first also called the destruction of the dam "nonsense" and assured that "everything is fine." However, later the authorities nevertheless announced an evacuation, more than 800 people have already been evacuated throughout the region. 17,000 people live in coastal settlements on the right bank, and another 25,000 live near the water on the occupied left bank. Videos of the flooded parts of the city are being published on social networks, and eyewitnesses also filmed a private house floating along the Dnieper.
Why did the accident happen?
OSINT analysts studied satellite imagery before and after the breakthrough of the Kakhovskaya HPP and suggested that the dam could have collapsed not as a result of an explosion, but due to previous damage. Serious damage to the dam was visible on yesterday's pictures, as well as on footage from June 4th.
The Washington Post and Financial Times journalists Evan Hill and Christopher Miller also commented on the devastation on Twitter. They noticed that between May 28 and June 5, part of the road above the dam and the lock gates were damaged or destroyed. Hill stated that shortly before the dam burst, water levels in the Kakhovka reservoir had reached unprecedented levels. This could be due to the fact that Russia kept too few floodgates open, wrote The New York Times.
Bellingcat journalist Arik Toler made a post with the caption: “I’m far from an engineer, but maybe mother nature destroyed the dam, and not Ukrainians or Russians?” However, he later removed it.
The founder of the Conflict Intelligence Team, Ruslan Leviev, in turn, states that, judging by the release of water under the fallen piece of road, the dam could gradually collapse on its own. “Maybe that’s why a piece of the road fell, given that there was a hole there for a long time. I would look at even older pictures, how long ago this water discharge began to appear, ”the expert wrote. Leviev also refers to a video in which, probably, a former employee of the hydroelectric power station shows the building of the power plant and says that there was no arrival.
However, the press secretary of the operational command "South" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Natalya Gumenyuk, said that the hydroelectric power station was blown up, and it was not a missile attack, the explosion occurred from within. Having blown up the hydroelectric power station, the Russian troops decided to slow down the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Ukrainian mayor of Nova Kakhovka, Volodymyr Kovalenko, said that the engine room had been blown up at the HPP. Adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Mykhailo Podolyak also said on the air on Oleksandr Plyushchev's channel that the dam was blown up by Russia. He claims that the 205th motorized rifle brigade of the Russian army did this in order to influence the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The state of the hydroelectric power station and the dam
The dam went under water a few hours later, the video was posted by the pro-Russian military commander Yuri Kotenok in the Telegram channel:
“At 10:48 Moscow time, the Kakhovskaya HPP was completely flooded. In Novaya Kakhovka, the water level has risen to 10 meters.
Also, the Ukrainian media published satellite images of the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station before and after the explosion (June 4 and 6).
Ukrhydroenergo claims that the Kakhovskaya HPP is completely destroyed and cannot be restored. The Russian state agency TASS writes that half of the spans of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station have already collapsed, the collapse continues.
The destruction of the valves of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station in the Kherson region led to a rise in the water level by 5 meters, said Vladimir Leontiev, the “head” of Novaya Kakhovka installed by Russia.
“At the moment, there is about 5 meters of water rise. The coastal zones downstream of all settlements – Novaya Kakhovka, Dnepryany, Korsunka and beyond – are flooded. There is already a catastrophe, it was possible to avoid deaths only due to the fact that the hydroelectric power station survived and the services are working. People who are in close proximity to water are transferred to dry places.”
The dam was shelled many times
The attacks on the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station and the dam were carried out repeatedly, and the possible destruction of the dam was reported back in the fall of 2022.
On November 11, 2022, the American company Maxar published satellite images of the bridge at the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station and the Darevsky bridge across the Ingulets river. According to the photographs , several spans of the bridge at the hydroelectric power station were missing even then. The CNN TV channel reported that the dam across the Dnieper was damaged, water flows out of three sluice gates. According to the channel, the latest explosions on the dam occurred on November 10 after the retreat of Russian troops.
Experts interviewed by The Insider noted that for Ukraine, the destruction of the dam does not make any military sense. At the same time, it was then predicted that Russia could take such a step if it was forced to leave the right-bank part of Kherson, which eventually happened.
Decree of the Russian Federation a week before the accident
The Insider previously drew attention to the fact that a week before the explosion at the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, the Russian authorities allowed not to investigate accidents at hazardous facilities in the “DPR, LPR”, Zaporozhye region and Kherson region, which occurred as a result of “military actions” and terrorist attacks. The ordinance entered into force on May 31.
The last paragraph of the resolution states that “until January 1, 2028, a technical investigation of accidents at hazardous production facilities and accidents of hydraulic structures that occurred as a result of hostilities, sabotage and terrorist acts is not carried out.”
The document also contains clauses stating that until September 1, 2023 and until March 1, 2024, at facilities in the "DPR, LPR", Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, part of the paragraphs of the Federal Law "On industrial safety of hazardous production facilities" and "On safety of hydraulic structures”.
As Ilya Shumanov, director of Transparency International Russia, noted in a conversation with The Insider, the articles of the hydraulic structures safety declaration could have been canceled not to hide the accident, but because it is impossible to issue these declarations due to the lack of project documents. He recalled that the Ukrainian specialists evacuated and took the documents with them. Those who have to serve the station do not know the power of the facility, what it is connected to, they do not have trained specialists. The law was adopted “on time” to remove responsibility from the people who now make management decisions there.
“Apparently, people had access to information that such an undermining would take place, so the legislation was brought into line in advance so that there would be no questions for them,” Shumanov specified.
Reaction to the accident
The Investigative Committee of Russia opened a criminal case on a terrorist attack after the destruction of the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station.
“As a result of criminal actions on the part of the armed formations of Ukraine, the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station was destroyed, which resulted in the flooding of settlements in the Kherson region,” the ministry said.
The case was initiated under Part 2 of Art. 205 of the Criminal Code (a terrorist act committed by a group of persons by prior agreement and causing significant property damage and other grave consequences).
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the participants of the Bucharest Nine summit with a statement that Ukraine could not undermine the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station. According to him, Russia has been controlling both the dam and the entire hydroelectric power plant for a year now. According to him, the dam was mined by the Russian side earlier, and also pointed out that it was impossible to undermine it with the help of external influence, including shelling.
“Russia has detonated a bomb of mass ecological destruction. This is the biggest man-made environmental disaster in Europe in decades. <…> Therefore, the defeat of Russia – which we will ensure – will be the most significant contribution to the security of our region, our Europe and the whole world.
According to the French satellite monitoring agency Hydroweb (Theia), the water level in the Kakhovka reservoir rose sharply before the destruction of the dam and reached its highest level in the last 7 years.
Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky compared the Russian attack on the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station with "the use of weapons of mass destruction against civilians."
The head of the European Council, Charles Michel, called the destruction of the dam a war crime and said that Russia would be held accountable.