The last month has been perhaps the busiest for Chinese diplomacy in a long time. Xi Jinping recently had his first phone call with Volodymyr Zelensky since the start of the war, and Jake Sullivan, US national security adviser, met with Wang Yi, Beijing's chief of diplomacy, again for the first time in a long time, as relations between the two countries have been deteriorating for years . The recent G7 summit took place in a much less hostile atmosphere towards China, and the US and Chinese defense ministers even met on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. At the same time, the Chinese “peace delegation” completed its diplomatic tour, where Li Hui, a former ambassador to Russia and special representative for Eurasian affairs, spoke with Ukrainian and European politicians.
Neutrality as a trump card
Since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, China has stubbornly sought to take a "neutral" position, which in practice meant refusing to condemn Russian actions, albeit without directly supporting them. This had huge consequences for China's relations with the West, and since then they have slowly but surely moved towards an escalation that seemed inevitable to some: among the secret US documents leaked to the network, for example, there was a note by one of the generals about his "premonition" of the American war in 2025. There was much less tension in the European direction, but relations still rapidly grew cold, despite the economic interests and interdependence of partners.
China's refusal to condemn Russian actions in Ukraine has had huge negative consequences for relations with the West
Contrary to fears, this escalation of the last year not only did not lead to a military conflict, but, on the contrary, ended in detente. First of all, there have been changes in relations between China and Europe. Beijing has made a number of diplomatic efforts towards European partners: during the visits, there have been calls for investment and building up economic ties. It is also obvious that China is interested in maintaining stable, peaceful relations with the European Union – primarily, of course, economic ones. Some European politicians decided to play on these interests, in particular Emmanuel Macron, who visited China with a very friendly visit, despite the atmosphere of tension. This was followed on May 9 by talks between the Foreign Ministers of China and Germany, Qin Gang and Annalen Burbock, where, in addition to Ukraine, the need to strengthen mutual ties and prepare for future consultations between Beijing and Berlin were discussed.
Of course, it is still impossible to speak confidently about the effectiveness of such diplomatic "carrots"; but there is reason to believe that some results have been achieved in Europe. Macron's visit could indeed be the signal that Beijing needed to reconsider its foreign policy priorities – perhaps it is still more interesting to be "friends" with the West than with Russia. One way or another, the image of a neutral player who has not yet chosen either side in the confrontation between Russia and the West, although he can play a decisive role, brings only dividends to China.
China and Ukraine: steps forward
On April 26, Xi Jinping had a telephone conversation with Volodymyr Zelensky, the first contact between the leaders since the start of the war. Subsequently, the President of Ukraine called the conversation long and meaningful; Xi Jinping, in turn, noted that "mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity is the basis of Sino-Ukrainian relations." The phrase for Chinese diplomacy is by no means new and does not necessarily carry any practical meaning, but its repetition in a conversation with a Ukrainian colleague is quite another and important signal to Western countries about distancing (at least formally) China from Russian territorial claims. In addition, as a result of negotiations, Ukraine appointed an ambassador to China – an event that would seem to be ordinary under normal conditions, but in reality Ukraine has not had its own ambassador in Beijing since 2021.
Both the conversation itself and the appointment of the ambassador mean the establishment of a direct dialogue between Kyiv and Beijing, and such a dialogue was one of the key requests sent by European and American politicians towards Xi Jinping; in particular, Jake Sullivan, US national security adviser, spoke about this in March. Thus, China is taking a symbolically important step towards Western partners, albeit not on a key issue for them.
China not only demonstrates its own "neutrality", but directly meets the needs of Western partners
Some time after the conversation, the Chinese Foreign Ministry announced the formation of a special diplomatic mission with a "peacekeeping" purpose: Beijing's emissary, Li Hui, was supposed to visit Ukraine, a number of European capitals and Moscow in order to help communicate the "interests of the parties" and search for a "political solution to the conflict ". This step is a more meaningful continuation of the Beijing peacekeeping line, which began with the publication of a “plan for the peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian crisis.” Importantly, unlike all previous Chinese undertakings, in this case the plan was created after negotiations specifically with Ukraine, and it was Kiev that became the first stop on the “diplomatic tour”, where Li Hui personally met with Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba.
It is too early to talk about the results of the tour; the content of the negotiations was not published in sufficient detail. The Wall Street Journal, however, shortly after the trip ended, published an article stating that Li Hui urged European politicians to "give back the occupied territories to Russia." Following the publication, Dmitry Kuleba issued a refutation with reference to European colleagues: Lee, he said, did not offer anything of the kind. In China, this rhetoric was immediately picked up and again denied accusations – with reference , among other things, to Kuleba himself and other Western diplomats, which is already interesting in itself. Thus, the reliability of the WSJ information ultimately remains a big question: if such an issue was raised in the negotiations, none of the parties is going to confirm it.
China and the US: thaw
The “thaw” also affected Sino-American relations, which have been especially tense in recent months. On May 11, the head of Chinese diplomacy, Wang Yi, and US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan held their first talks in a long time – which is characteristic, unlike many similar events, completely unannounced to the public. Both the US and China called the talks "productive" and "sincere". There, Sullivan said the US was ready and willing to "put the balloon incident behind us" and work to improve relations. Given that the meeting took place shortly after the Xi-Zelensky call that Sullivan spoke about earlier, building bridges with Ukraine likely played a role in warming relations with the United States.
Both the US and China called the talks productive and sincere.
Speaking at the G7 summit, Joe Biden said that he sees an opportunity for a “thaw” in relations between China and the United States, and conflict between China and the West is not at all inevitable. The further rhetoric regarding China on the margins of the G7 is also interesting. First, the US and Europe are clearly moving closer to developing a common Chinese policy; at least, at the forum, their speeches seemed to be the same – what is important, both in content and in form. Second, while many of the positions voiced at the forum on China were hard-lined – condemning the Chinese approach to economic pressure and the use of the economy as a weapon – the speakers tried to do it as carefully as possible, often using abstract forms and avoiding direct accusations to the side. Beijing; and also noticed that they did not seek to harm China or slow down its development, and several times spoke about their readiness for further dialogue.
Underwater rocks
The Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual interstate Asia-Pacific security conference in Singapore, brought together the defense ministers of both countries. Initially, China refused to meet, but, according to Reuters sources, the heads of the defense departments briefly talked.
Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu has been under U.S. sanctions since 2018 for buying Russian weapons while serving as a general in the Chinese army. Despite the fact that the American side appealed to the inapplicability of such sanctions on the territory of third countries and did not see any obstacles in this, Beijing perceived this situation as insulting and refused to meet through formal channels.
This case, together with the concerns expressed at the G7, shows another problem: in addition to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a number of rather old contradictions remain in relations between China and the West. Some of them may be connected with Russia, but most of them lie in completely different planes: economic and trade confrontation and de-risking, Taiwan, human rights issues, the struggle for zones of influence in Africa and Southeast Asia, and so on. Each of these contradictions creates new obstacles to the rapprochement between Beijing and the West and, on the other hand, to the distance between Beijing and Moscow.
Despite this, warming seems possible. In recent months, in response to positive gestures from Europe, China has indeed moved towards Western partners – and they, in turn, reciprocate. This situation can lead to the opposite development – a positive spiral, where each response will be met with positive reinforcement. If this process is launched, then sooner or later the West will be able to convince China to play its role in helping to end the war in Ukraine, and the PRC has plenty of leverage to do this.
