In today's summary:
- Three lines of counteroffensive.
- The Armed Forces of Ukraine are surrounded by Bakhmut, heavy fighting in the Zaporozhye region.
- Command of the Russian Federation: "Everything is fine."
Three Directions
The fact that the Ukrainian counter-offensive had begun was announced by the Russian Ministry of Defense. According to the Russian Ministry, it began on the night of June 5.
“On the morning of June 4, the enemy launched a large-scale offensive in five sectors of the front in the South Donetsk direction by introducing into battle 23 and 31 mechanized brigades from the strategic reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with the support of other military units and subunits. In total, six mechanized and two enemy tank battalions were involved. The goal of the enemy was to break through our defenses on the most vulnerable, in his opinion, sector of the front.
According to the Ukrainian media and sources, the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has begun and is going in three directions: Bakhmut, as well as Donetsk and Zaporozhye regions. On June 11, the first photos and videos were published, which confirm the liberation of several settlements in the Donetsk region.
According to The Economist, citing a source in the country's military intelligence, Ukrainian forces suffered "significant losses" in armored vehicles and manpower during the counteroffensive in the Zaporozhye region. According to the Economist's interlocutor, "dozens of soldiers" were killed. Fighting is taking place on the line of the settlements of Orekhov and Tokmak – the first is located approximately in the center of the region, the second is to the south.
According to the publication, the fights are tough. “Russian military bloggers suggested that the raid went even deeper and captured other nearby villages. Some progress has also been made near Bakhmut further northeast: the Ukrainians have moved forward,” writes The Economist.
Heavy fighting: the encirclement of Bakhmut, losses in the Zaporozhye region
In the battles on the Orekhovo-Tokmak line, the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffered significant losses, the newspaper writes, citing sources. At the same time, Ukrainian sources told the publication that “a chess game is underway,” and both sides are withdrawing each other’s reserves in this direction. Ukraine's "immediate priority" is to reduce Russia's superiority in artillery by shelling its positions with long-range fire.
The publication also refers to the pro-Russian blogger Denis Yaroslavsky, who reports that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to surround Bakhmut, but soon Russian troops will gain an advantage and occupy a hill in this territory. The representative of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Serhiy Cherevaty, in turn, said that Ukrainian troops in the Bakhmut direction are advancing at a speed of several hundred meters to two kilometers a day and, thus, have every chance to encircle this territory.
According to the founder of the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) project, Ruslan Leviev, June 8 should be considered the start date of the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, since it was then that analysts first noticed tanks and infantry fighting vehicles on the front line. “Before that, there were attacks on MRAPs, which I called probing for weaknesses in the Russian defense line,” Leviev wrote.
As military analyst Kirill Mikhailov told Mediazone, the counter-offensive began "when new brigades formed for the counter-offensive on modern Western equipment entered the battle," in addition, when MaxxPro armored personnel carriers, Leopard tanks, mine-clearing vehicles based on these tanks appeared at the front and Bradley infantry fighting vehicles.
Leviev also noted that the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to liberate several settlements southwest of Velika Novoselka, where fighting took place at the end of last week – these are the villages of Neskuchnoye, Blagodatnoye, Makarovka and Storozhevoye.
Fighting also continues southeast of Velika Novoselka, the village of Novodonetskoye, this is confirmed by Russian sources, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine have not yet been able to reach the main line of fortifications.
In the Zaporozhye region, in the Orekhov area, the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated the village of Lobkove. To the southwest of Velikaya Novoselka, Levadnoe was liberated. Pro-Russian "military correspondents" write that this is not a retreat, but a "regrouping".
Also, according to Ukrainian media reports, a railway bridge was blown up in the occupied urban-type settlement of Akimovka (Zaporozhye region) on the Dzhankoy-Melitopol line, which is an important Russian supply route (the data is confirmed by a geolocated video ).
South of Orekhov near Novodanilovka, in an unsuccessful attack, the Ukrainian army lost at least 4 Leopard 2 tanks, 16 M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles (most were left but not destroyed) and four mine-clearing armored vehicles – previously known about three Leopard 2R and one Wisent 1 As analyst Oliver Alexander notes , the fact that the Russians show footage of the aftermath of this unsuccessful attack every day suggests that they have nothing else to boast of.
In general, in terms of visually confirmed losses of equipment at the beginning of the offensive, there is some parity between the parties, the War Facts telegram channel notes , analyzing reports from the Oryx project dated June 8 and 10. Russian and Ukrainian documented losses are 88 and 83 pieces of equipment, respectively, while the Russians lose much more artillery (14 systems lost versus 4 Ukrainian ones), which indicates the ineffectiveness of Russian counter-battery fire (which Russian " military correspondents " and even commanders constantly complain about). At the same time, it is worth noting that these data may be incomplete: at a meeting with "commanders" in the Kremlin, Putin said that 54 tanks were lost in repelling the offensive of the RF Armed Forces. which is several times higher than the Oryx calculations
In the Donetsk region, in the future, the Ukrainian army may advance towards the Bakhmut-Gorlovka road and cut it, complicating the position of Russian forces in Bakhmut, Leviev notes.
According to Valery Shershen, a representative of the Ukrainian Joint Defense Forces, on Sunday, June 11, the Russians blew up a small hydraulic structure near Novodarovka, which led to the flooding of territories along both banks of the Wet Yala River. The fact of the spill is confirmed by radar satellite images.
No change on other fronts
Judging by the reports of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, active battles are taking place only in the east of Ukraine. So far, there are no changes in the northern parts of the country.
“In the Volyn and Polessky directions, the operational situation has not changed significantly. There are no signs of the formation of offensive groups. The Republic of Belarus continues to support the armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine, the training of individual enemy units continues,” the General Staff report says.
"Everything is fine"
At the same time, the Russian command continues to make optimistic forecasts. In particular, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that the Ukrainian counteroffensive had failed.
“The offensive attempts were thwarted, the enemy was stopped, Russian soldiers and officers showed courage and heroism in battles. I repeat, the enemy did not achieve his goals, suffered significant and incomparable losses, ”Shoigu said. His words were repeated by Vladimir Putin, who said that "all the goals of the enemy have failed." However, it should be noted here that even in Russian reports only four brigades are mentioned (the 23rd, 31st and 47th brigade, as well as the 37th brigade of the marines) out of at least 12 brigades prepared for the counteroffensive. “The main part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is not yet involved, and it is impossible to say exactly where it will be involved,” emphasizes Kirill Mikhailov.
