There is no full-fledged replacement for the Chongarsky bridge damaged by the strike on June 22, the violation of logistics will undermine the logistics of the Russian troops, and also complicate the possible retreat of the Russian military from the southern part of mainland Ukraine. This was stated by military expert Alexander Kovalenko in a conversation with The Insider.
“The strikes were primarily delivered to disrupt logistics. Through the village of Chongar passes not only the automobile E105 in the direction of Melitopol, the railway passes through Sivash. It is in this location that road and rail links with the mainland of Ukraine take place. Let's just say that the disruption of this logistics will significantly undermine the logistics of the Russian occupation forces in the south.
By itself, the automobile Chongarsky bridge is not some kind of fundamental structure, and therefore its destruction is a much more fleeting matter of time than the destruction of the Antonovsky bridge – both automobile and railway. In principle, there is no replacement or alternative, with the exception of the Genichevsky direction and the direction through Vesnyanka. But these are new types of roads that do not provide the traffic that this railway and road direction provides.
If this logistics is cut off, then there will be routes to the mainland through Armyansk, and this is a colossal logistical hemorrhoid, and an exit to Chaplinka, only two routes. If we are talking about Melitopol, then this is a colossal detour – to go to Chaplinka, then to Novoalekseevka, which is in the Chongar region, and only then go to Melitopol. This is a colossal waste of not only fuel, if we talk about cars, but also resources. There is another option to exit through Chaplinka to the north, to the E58 highway, but it brings such logistic columns into the range of our artillery. This is not far from Novaya Kakhovka and Lyubimovka, that is, it is a zone of destruction of barrel and rocket artillery.
Also, the lack of logistics through Chongar makes it difficult for the Russian troops to retreat from the southern part of mainland Ukraine. Because today their defense is concentrated along the Vasilievka-Tokmak-Melitopol triangle, and diagonally this defense descends just to the northern regions of Crimea, closing in Armyansk and Dzhankoy. It turns out such a parallelogram and without sufficient support remains a serious section in the left-bank Kherson region and even in the Zaporozhye region.
If you take this parallelogram, you can see where there is a concentration of forces and means, and where there is a shortage. In the event of the liberation of the left Kherson region, logistics to Armyansk may be cut. If Chaplinka is released, they will simply have nowhere to retreat, and they will be closed on the mainland of Ukraine. This grouping will be surrounded, this has never happened before in the history of modern wars and conflicts. Therefore, if in the near future the Russian command does not give an order to withdraw troops from the south of Ukraine, then they may find themselves in such an interesting position.
So far, a blow to the bridge is a test of the pen, as was the case with the Antonovsky bridge. The first hits were in July 2022, and then Stremousov and Saldo boasted that it was only a “couple of missiles”, this is the Antonovsky Bridge. It all ended with the fact that he became incapacitated and did not provide either road or rail logistics. And Chongarsky bridge is much weaker than Antonovsky.
As for Shoigu and his statements, this is still a rare balabol. If we talk about professionalism, then he is not a military man, and even more so not a professional one. He needs to farm and breed deer, which he has been doing for the past few years. Will he strike at London and Washington? I would like to see it. If he meant Ukraine, they have been hitting us since 2022, how did he try to scare us? Even if it strikes at the administrative quarter or at the Verkhovna Rada, what will it change? This will not affect the execution of tasks and plans in any way. Ukraine has already been in high-risk mode for a year and a half. We have been in this situation for a year and a half, and it has already become routine for us. Sergei Shoigu's statements evoke only a sad smile. If a person of this level believes that this can somehow affect us, then this only emphasizes his level of incompetence and shortsightedness.
I fully admit that the Russian troops can lift the MiG-31 into the air and launch seven "Daggers" and a dozen "Iskanders" in the direction of Kiev, they will shoot down half and something will fall in the area of the government quarter, but this will generally not affect the course of the combat action."
On the morning of June 22, the "authorities" of the annexed Crimea and the Kherson region reported that they had attacked the bridges connecting the peninsula and the region. Even before the attack on the bridge, Shoigu stated that the Armed Forces of Ukraine were planning to strike with Western missiles, including HIMARS and Storm Shadow, on Russian territory outside the “special operation” zone. At the time, he emphasized that this would be seen as a "full-fledged involvement" of the US and Britain in the conflict, and would entail "immediate strikes on decision-making centers" in Ukraine. After the attack on June 22, Shoigu said at a meeting that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are preparing for further offensive actions, the Russian Armed Forces are also "preparing for these steps." Russian President Vladimir Putin at a meeting asked Shoigu to assess the threat in the NVO zone, taking into account new planned deliveries of Western equipment. Shoigu replied that, taking into account the previous losses, the supplies "would not significantly affect the course of hostilities."