In today's summary:
- The criminal case on the fact of the rebellion was closed, but from the point of view of the current legal norms, it is illegal;
- Alexander Lukashenko told how he persuaded Prigozhin not to storm Moscow;
- Vladimir Putin said that 86 billion rubles were spent from the budget for the maintenance of the Wagnerites;
- After the rebellion of PMC Wagner, the Russian Guard will receive heavy weapons and tanks;
- The Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot overcome the minefields on the outskirts of Russian positions;
- On the anniversary of the tragedy with the strike on the shopping center in Kremenchug, Russian rockets were again fired at the city;
- The German concern Rheinmetall will deliver 14 Leopard 2A4 tanks to Ukraine, but only in 2024;
- A video has surfaced of a Russian tank with the most impressive protective brazier known so far.
The consequences of the Wagner PMC mutiny
Last night and this morning, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko made statements about the armed uprising organized by one of the founders and the main public representative of Wagner PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin. Neither one nor the other brought final clarity regarding the future fate of Prigozhin and the "Wagnerites" as a separate armed formation.
Let us remind you that earlier it was reported that the criminal case against Prigozhin for organizing a rebellion would be stopped, and he himself would have the opportunity to "go to Belarus."
The FSB of the Russian Federation reported on the closure of the case, since the participants in the events "stopped actions directly aimed at committing a crime." Although three days before that, in a separate release , the department wrote about Prigogine as follows:
Prigozhin’s statements are in fact calls for the start of an armed civil conflict on the territory of the Russian Federation, and his actions are a “stab in the back” of Russian servicemen fighting pro-fascist Ukrainian forces.
From the point of view of the existing norms, the termination of a criminal case looks illegal. As the Lawyer Street project explains , in criminal law, “armed rebellion” refers to the so-called “formal” elements of a crime. They are completed from the moment certain actions are performed, whether or not there are any consequences.
Thus, the basis indicated in the report of the CSO FSB – “the participants in the armed rebellion stopped actions directly aimed at committing a crime” – is not provided for by Russian criminal or criminal procedural legislation.
In addition, it is not clear why the investigating body ignores the facts of the murder of Russian military personnel, the destruction of army equipment, damage to property and other consequences of an armed rebellion.
The Belarus Gayun project drew attention to the fact that a business jet associated with Yevgeny Prigozhin arrived on the morning of June 27 at the Machulishchi airfield near Minsk .
As for PMC Wagner, the Russian Defense Ministry posted a message about the preparation of their transfer of heavy military equipment to the active units of the Russian Armed Forces. If such a transfer really takes place, it will no longer be possible to organize a new “march of justice” by the forces of the “Wagnerites”.
At the same time, the head of the National Guard, Viktor Zolotov, spoke about plans to receive heavy weapons and tanks. According to him, this issue was discussed with Putin. Zolotov did not name the delivery time, noting only that it would depend on financing.
The head of the National Guard also said that his subordinates worked competently during an attempted armed rebellion over the weekend. When asked by journalists about why Prigozhin's column managed to advance so quickly and almost unhindered during the rebellion, Zolotov spoke about the intentional "concentration of forces" near Moscow .
Analysts Dmitry Alperovich and Tom Bullock, commenting on Zolotov's statements, note that the National Guard either ignored the passage of Wagner PMC columns, as in Rostov-on-Don , or even surrendered without firing a shot, as at the Bugaevka border checkpoint.
On the afternoon of June 27, President Putin, during a rather strange event on the territory of the Kremlin, gathered security officials and unexpectedly addressed the military from the porch of the Faceted Chamber. According to him, they "actually stopped the civil war" in Russia, standing "on the path of unrest, the result of which would inevitably be chaos."
The president also announced a minute of silence in memory of the pilots who died during the mutiny. Who exactly killed them, Putin did not specify. The name of Yevgeny Prigozhin, as in all his last speeches about the rebellion, he did not name. Later, during a speech, Putin said that 86 billion 262 million rubles were spent from the state budget for the maintenance of mercenaries from May 2022 to May 2023:
Of these, the allowance is 70 billion 384 million, incentive payments – 15 billion 877 million. Insurance payments – 110 billion 179 million.
The announced figures allow us to estimate the average number and losses of Wagner PMCs. With a salary of 240 thousand rubles a month (as of the summer of 2022 ) and a salary fund of 5.8 billion rubles a month, it turns out a little more than 24 thousand people. Prigozhin himself, setting off for the March of Justice, said that he had 25,000 fighters at his disposal.
Similarly, one can estimate the losses of mercenaries. As far as is known, PMC Wagner pays 5 million rubles for the deceased and up to 1-2 million rubles in case of a serious injury (for example, amputation of limbs). Based on the mentioned amount of 110 billion rubles of insurance payments, this would be enough to compensate the relatives of 22,000 dead or 55,000 seriously injured (with compensation of 1 million rubles). Since Prigozhin previously admitted losses only in the battle for Bakhmut at the level of 20,000 killed (which means at least 60,000 wounded), it can be assumed that a significant part of the families of the dead and wounded soldiers did not receive the due compensation.
At the same time, according to Putin, Prigozhin's Concord company earned 80 billion rubles from food supplies and catering in the army.
Alexander Lukashenko spoke about how exactly the rebellion was stopped, speaking to Belarusian officers in the Palace of Independence. He said that he persuaded Putin not to “wet” Prigozhin and go to negotiations:
I realized: a cruel decision was made – to wet. I suggested to Putin not to hurry. Come on, I say, let's talk with Prigogine, with his commanders. To which he told me: “Listen, Sasha, it’s useless. He doesn’t even pick up the phone, he doesn’t want to talk to anyone.”
According to Lukashenko, after that he tried to contact Prigozhin while he was in Rostov-on-Don . Russian Deputy Defense Minister General Yunus-Bek Yevkurov and FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov took part in organizing the talks:
At 11:00 am he <Prigozhin – The Insider> instantly picked up the phone. That is, Yevkurov called him, gave him the phone: “Here, the President of Belarus is calling, will you talk?” – "I will be with Alexander Grigorievich." I hear their conversation. Picked up the phone. The conversation is euphoria. Eugene is in complete euphoria. We talked for the first round of 30 minutes in a swear language. Exclusively. There were 10 times more swear words (I later analyzed them) than normal vocabulary. He, of course, apologized and began to tell me with obscene words.
According to Lukashenka, after persuasion and threats that the Belarusian army would defend Moscow , Prigozhin agreed to deploy the column. Lukashenka cited competition between the army and PMCs as the reason for the rebellion: "an interpersonal conflict between famous people has escalated into this fight."
It should be noted that, judging by the almost complete absence of personnel from the movement of military columns (and not the National Guard) in central Russia on June 24, combined-arms formations to counter the “Prigozhinites” could really have been transferred only from Belarus . However, they still have serious questions regarding combat readiness, morale and the ability to quickly deploy hundreds of kilometers.
Lukashenka also told what, in his opinion, the Wagnerites would do on the territory of Belarus . He believes that they will "help" and "tell" about important moments at the front, "tactics, weapons, and how to attack, how to defend."
The research group Conflict Intelligence Team notes that even if 8,000 Wagnerians, that is, a third of the 25,000 fighters declared by Prigozhin at the beginning of the rebellion, follow him to Belarus , that their number will already be comparable to the personnel of the ground forces of this country. Therefore, according to the researchers, most of the mercenaries will still go to the official power structures or return to civilian life.
According to CNN, during the uprising, the Americans turned to Kiev with a request “not to use the chaos” inside Russia to strike, so as not to create the impression that the West and Ukraine are helping Yevgeny Prigozhin and threatening Russian sovereignty. The message "don't rock the boat" was conveyed at the level of foreign ministers, deputies and through ambassadors. The channel's source said:
The allies warned the Ukrainians not to provoke the situation. Use the opportunities on the territory of Ukraine, but do not get involved in internal affairs and do not strike offensive military targets inside Russia.
In addition, the material notes that American intelligence officials were surprised at how little resistance Prigogine met.
Several sources told CNN that US and Western officials believe Putin was simply caught off guard by Prigozhin's actions and failed to prevent a takeover of the headquarters of the Southern Military District in Rostov-on-Don . At the same time, Western officials note that Prigozhin would not have been allowed to capture Moscow or the Kremlin (the CIT believes that the Wagnerites would be able to occupy, for example, the Ostankino TV tower ). Officials say this is probably why Prigozhin agreed to make a deal with Lukashenka and ended up deploying his troops.
The situation at the front
While attention is focused on events in Russia, the Ukrainian military is successfully advancing in several directions in the south and east. According to the representative of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Andriy Kovalev, the offensive operation continues in the Melitopol , Berdyansk and Bakhmut directions .
On the lines of Novodarovka – Priyutnoye and Novodanilovka – Rabotino, the Ukrainian military successfully continues to fire artillery at the identified enemy targets.
Also, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are conducting offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction in the areas of the settlements of Orekhovo-Vasilyevka , Ivanovskoye , Kurdyumovka . According to a representative of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the offensive is proceeding successfully, the Ukrainians are gaining a foothold on the achieved lines.
Voenkor of the All-Russian State Television and Radio Broadcasting Company Yevgeny Poddubny writes about the “increasing efforts” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in two southern directions: in the area of the Antonovsky bridge on the left bank of the Dnieper and on the outskirts of Rabotino (south of Orekhov ).
"Voenkor" Roman Saponkov publishes a map of the situation that has developed near the Antonovsky bridge , and notes that technically Ukrainian military personnel landed on Antonovsky Island , and they still need to overcome almost 4 km to the left bank of the Dnieper proper.
The Ukrainian OSINT resource DeepState claims that the video with the battle of Russian paratroopers and Ukrainian saboteurs in the Antonovsky Bridge area, which was widely distributed on social networks, actually shows friendly fire. The footage from the Ukrainian drone shows how one of the groups of the Russian Airborne Forces, which arrived to liquidate the Ukrainian “bridgehead”, takes up positions in the private sector, and then the approaching BTR-82A fires randomly at the same positions, apparently mistaking them for the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The WarGonzo project of “military officer” Semyon Pegov points to the regrouping of both Ukrainian and Russian forces in the Zaporozhye direction and states that after the loss of Rivnopol , the Vremevsky ledge (a small area under the control of Russian troops on a hill at the junction of the Zaporozhye region and the “DPR” ) was finally “cut off” : The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are now holding the defense along the line Priyutnoye – Staromayorskoye – Novodonetskoye – Pavlovka.
The Rybar Telegram channel associated with the Russian Defense Ministry, in turn, notes that after establishing control over Rovnopol , the Armed Forces of Ukraine equipped additional positions in the vicinity of the village under the cover of a tank platoon of the 31st mechanized brigade. At the moment, two assault groups of the 31st Motorized Brigade and the DRG of the 36th Marine Brigade have taken up positions at the Levadnoye-Rivnopol line to attack Priyutnoye .
"Voenkor" Alexander Sladkov reports that the attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not stop at the Orekhov-Rabotino sector:
Artillery has been thundering in this area since early morning. The enemy clogs our first trenches with rockets and shells, his infantry, behind a shaft of fire, breaks into them, we clog the enemy with artillery in the same trenches, we again go to our previous positions.
The complexity of the situation in the Zaporozhye direction is evidenced by the appeal of wives and mothers mobilized from Moscow and the Moscow region , who complained that the soldiers stationed in Tokmak were sent to the line of contact. At the same time, according to the wives, bulletproof vests were taken from the soldiers by order of the command. They also reported that there was a complete lack of artillery support, which led to critical losses. The survivors were forced to retreat.
In response to this, a message appeared on the Romanov Light Telegram channel stating that when entering the positions, it was found that the soldiers were sleeping and the weapons were scattered. The unit itself in the area that is called "Sobyaninsky" is well-equipped, in the dugouts there are even TVs and consoles for games, not to mention bulletproof vests.
The head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, showed a video allegedly preventing an attempt by the Ukrainian DR to break into the territory of the Belgorod region . He stated that the Akhmat fighters with artillery fire prevented an attempt to break through in the direction of the settlements of Shchetinovka and Bogun-Gorodok .
In mid-June, the Chechen leader announced that Akhmat fighters would protect the border areas of the Belgorod region from saboteurs in agreement with the head of the region, Vyacheslav Gladkov. At the same time, the local Pepel Telegram channel reported , citing sources among the military, that the Kadyrovites occupied “at best, 3-5 defense echelons.”
Harvard University professor Graham Ellison, in his article for The Washington Post, notes that Ukraine has only a few weeks to return its territories. Kyiv should use any advantages it has in the war with Moscow, including internal problems, the expert notes. The stagnation in hostilities will lead to the transition of the conflict into a new phase, in which supporters of Ukraine in Europe and the United States will join those who insist on starting negotiations. The professor is convinced that if the parties come to an agreement, then each of them will consider as a victory those achievements that were achieved by the time of the agreement. Then, Ellison said, the world would celebrate the end of the conflict and call it "peace," but the Ukrainian territories would remain with Russia.
The New York Times notes that three weeks after the start of a counter-offensive critical to Ukraine's prospects, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are facing a number of unpleasant problems. One of them is a vast strip of minefields protecting the defensive line of Russia.
“Everything and everywhere is mined,” Lt. Ashot Harutyunyan, the commander of the drone unit, was quoted as saying, who, using a drone camera, saw how a mine exploded under the Bradley BMP and stopped the advance of the Ukrainian convoy.
Soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot overcome the large minefields that close the approaches to Russian positions. In addition, they are subjected to intense artillery shelling and air strikes with the help of Ka-52 helicopters. These difficulties have turned the initial phase of the counteroffensive into protracted battles, concludes The NYT.
Just how difficult it is for Ukrainians to get through minefields can be seen in the (extremely shocking) video that is being circulated on pro-Russian Telegram channels.
In the footage, which was most likely taken during an unsuccessful attack by the 47th Mechanized Brigade north of Rabotino on June 8, Ukrainian soldiers dismount from Bradley and are immediately blown up by mines, after which they are trying to evacuate under artillery fire for a long time.
Mutual shelling and sabotage
On the afternoon of June 27, the Russians launched the same rockets at Kremenchuk, Poltava region , as they had fired at a shopping center last year. Yuriy Ignat, speaker of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, announced this on the air of the telethon:
Tu-22M3 are carriers of Kh-22 missiles. A year ago, the same missile hit a shopping center in Kremenchug. A year later they hit again with the same rocket, again in the direction of Kremenchug. At least two aircraft were seen in the air and at least two missiles were spotted during this attack.
The head of the Poltava regional military administration, Dmitry Lunin, said that the rocket hit the dacha cooperative, there were no casualties.
The head of the annexed Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov, said that another sabotage occurred in the Kirovsky district , and the railway tracks were damaged. The first wagon of a freight train derailed. According to him, there were no casualties. The movement of trains was temporarily suspended, but the authorities promise to restore the message as soon as possible.
As Rybar notes , when the tracks are disabled, the movement of trains to the north of Crimea is actually paralyzed, that is, the supply of the Russian group in the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions from the peninsula is limited.
In addition, according to "voenkor" Yuri Kotenok, the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to attack the peninsula with the help of UAVs. According to him, the drone was shot down by air defense systems and fell near Dzhankoy . The drone was of an aircraft type and carried explosives.
Losses
Президент Путин на встрече с военными рассказал о потерях ВСУ с начала контрнаступления:
С 4 июня, то есть с момента начала так называемого контрнаступления, противник утратил 259 танков, бронемашин — 780, а только на Ореховском направлении, которое противник считает главным направлением удара, и только за последние семь суток противник потерял 280 единиц техники, из них 41 танк и бронемашин — 102.
Постепенно в публичном поле всплывают имена погибших в ходе мятежа ЧВК Вагнера военнослужащих ВКС РФ. Издание «Важные истории» выяснило , что вторым погибшим летчиком Ка-52 был командир 3-й эскадрильи воинской части 44440 Алексей Ворожцов (15-я бригада армейской авиации, дислоцируется на аэродроме Веретье в Псковской области ). This was reported to "Important stories" by a source familiar with the situation in the VKS.
Глава Комитета Госдумы по обороне Андрей Картополов заявил в разговоре с The Insider, что не знает точно, возбуждено ли дело по фактам гибели военнослужащих. Он пообещал, что будет проведено разбирательство:
По поводу гибели летчиков никто никакого дела не прекращал… Я не знаю, существует оно или не существует, но я знаю, что в любом случае будет проведено разбирательство и необходимые решения будут приняты в рамках действующего законодательства.
Earlier it was reported that the losses of the Russian army as a result of a military mutiny could range from 4 to 20 people.
Что касается плачевной ситуации с санитарными потерями в ВС РФ (о чем в частности говорил Евгений Пригожин, когда находился в штабе ЮВО в Ростове-на-Дону ), то во многом это объясняется дезорганизацией работы и плохим снабжением военно-медицинских учреждений (подробнее об этом можно прочитать в большом материале The Insider).
Armaments and military equipment
Как сообщает издание Tagesschau, немецкий концерн Rheinmetall поставит на Украину 14 танков Leopard 2A4 от имени правительства Нидерландов. Первый из них планируется передать в январе 2024 года.
Главы МИД Евросоюза приняли решение увеличить объемы Европейского фонда мира на 3,5 миллиарда евро, из которого Брюссель выделяет деньги на поставки оружия Украине. Об этом сообщается на сайте Совета ЕС:
Это решение призвано обеспечить финансовую устойчивость и предсказуемость фонда в долгосрочной перспективе, а также сохранить его глобальный географический охват и способность ЕС предотвращать кризисы и конфликты и быстро реагировать на них.
Одним из узнаваемых элементов российских танков после начала вторжения в Украину стал «мангал» — решетка, наваренная над башней, чтобы защитить технику от противотанковых ракет. Появилось видео российского танка с самым впечатляющим из известных до сих пор защитным мангалом. Пророссийский канал «Военный осведомитель» полагает , что дополнительные конструкции призваны защитить танк от попадания FPV-дронов в лоб и в моторно-трансмиссионное отделение.
Пророссийский Telegram-канал «Есть такая профессия…», связанный с артиллерией, опубликовал фотографию 152-миллиметрового артиллерийского выстрела, поставленного ВС РФ, как сообщается, из Китая. Телеграм-канал «Танки. История и современность» предполагает , что на самом деле метательный заряд (одна из составляющих выстрела) произведен в Иране, а китайский снаряд (другая составляющая) попал туда еще во времена Ирано-иракской войны 1979-1989 годов. Исследователь Calibre Obscura отмечает , что снаряд, судя по всему, произведен в 1983 году, а упаковка выстрела не соответствует оригинальной китайской, то есть согласен с версией реэкспорта, однако сомневается в иранском происхождении заряда.
О главных событиях войны 26 июня — в предыдущей сводке: «В России оценивают ущерб после мятежа Пригожина, ВСУ закрепились на левом берегу Днепра. Что происходит на линии фронта» .