The Armed Forces of Ukraine are advancing in the Bakhmut direction, the east of Crimea has been shelled, Medvedev is demanding that nuclear power plants be bombed. What’s going on at the front

In today's summary:

The situation at the front

According to Andrei Kovalev, a representative of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, over the past week, the advance in the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions amounted to more than a kilometer. In total, 169 sq. km. “This is approximately commensurate with the area of ​​the city of Odessa . In these territories, demining activities continue, ”said Kovalev.

On the Vremevsky ledge (the conditional name of the operational area at the junction of the Zaporozhye region and the "DPR" south of Velika Novoselka ), the Armed Forces of Ukraine switched to positional advancement – the infantry is trying to gain a foothold at Grusheva Balka . This is reported by the pro-Russian Telegram channel "Rybar", associated with the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. As the authors of the channel write, Ukrainian artillery is firing continuously from the Novodarovka-Rivnopol line at the advanced strongholds of the RF Armed Forces south of the beam in Priyutny and Staromayorsky .

In addition, according to Rybar, fresh assault detachments of the 35th Marine Brigade of the Ukrainian Navy and units of the 79th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade (ODSHB) arrived in Makarovka and Rovnopol .

According to Rybar, in the Orekhovsky sector northeast of Rabotino , assault detachments of the 47th separate mechanized brigade (OMBR) managed to break through 500 meters deep into the defensive formations, there are battles with the 71st motorized rifle regiment of the RF Armed Forces. "Rybar" notes that the composition of the assault detachments of the Ukrainian 47th Specialized Rifle Brigade is only 25 people, but they operate with the support of the American Bradley infantry fighting vehicles.

In the Bakhmut direction of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a total of 24 square meters were liberated. km. According to Andriy Kovalev, last week the Ukrainian military occupied four square kilometers, consolidated on the achieved lines and inflicted fire damage with artillery on the identified enemy targets.

Based on geolocated videos , Russian formations have left part of Berkhovka northwest of Bakhmut . Also confirmed was the destruction of a Russian self-propelled gun 2S1 "Gvozdika" in Kleshcheevka south of the city.

It is to Klescheyevka that Chechen formations are allegedly being transferred, this was reported on the Telegram channel of the head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov. According to him, Akhmat special forces commander Apty Alaudinov is heading there. It is worth recalling that in early June, Akhmat was transferred to Maryinka near Donetsk , where, as hinted by the "commander" Vladimir Romanov, in 20 days of the offensive they managed to advance 200 meters.

British military intelligence believes that after a certain lull, Bakhmut again became the site of the most intense fighting at the front. Ukrainian forces are advancing steadily in both the north and south, and Russian forces are likely to struggle due to low morale, fragmented units, and limited ability to locate and strike Ukrainian artillery.

“The Russian leadership almost certainly considers the withdrawal from Bakhmut politically unacceptable, which has symbolic weight as one of the few achievements of Russia over the past 12 months. However, in all likelihood, additional reserves that could be directed to this sector are small, ”the agency said in a summary.

OSINT analysts also note the success of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Bakhmut direction . According to Finnish researcher Emil Castehelmi of the Black Bird Group, there were fortified positions on the heights near Klescheevka that held off the Ukrainian advance for several days, but now this obstacle has probably been overcome.

Satellite imagery shows that the fighting in the area was fierce and reports of heavy artillery shelling are true. Some forest belts have practically ceased to exist. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are also advancing from the west of Bakhmut , clearing the eastern side of the Seversky Donets-Donbass canal.

According to the GRAY ZONE Telegram channel close to PMC Wagner, the Ukrainian 3rd mechanized battalion of the 92nd Motorized Brigade managed to advance directly to the Berkhovsky reservoir , despite the fact that "yesterday and the day before yesterday our troops formed a defense line along the border of Berkhovka ". The Russian military had to withdraw from the western outskirts of the settlement into its depths, the channel said.

The author of the publication notes that the Ukrainian military, apparently, intends to take Berkhovka and get access to the Bakhmut-Slavyansk highway. This creates a threat of a semi-encirclement for the forces located to the west of the highway and holding Dubovo-Vasilevka .

One of the field commanders of the separatists in the Donbass in 2014, and now a well-known Z-figure Igor Girkin (aka Strelkov / Runov) writes about the suicidal assaults near Avdiivka :

Near Avdiivka, OUR troops continue the “meat assaults”. It seems that the headquarters of the 1st Army Corps are in a hurry to destroy the maximum number of our fighters in the most useless way in order to quickly lose the war.

You can see what it looks like in the video of the control and artillery reconnaissance battery of the 110th Territorial Defense Brigade, which shows how a Russian mechanized group was defeated by Ukrainian artillery fire, losing a tank and several infantry fighting vehicles.

Meanwhile, an icon from President Vladimir Putin has been delivered to the front line of the Zapad grouping, which occupies positions on the Svatovo-Kremennaya line. The state-owned RIA Novosti does not specify whether the original or a copy was transferred. In April of this year, it was reported that Putin would transfer the icon "Savior Not Made by Hands" to the Temple of the Armed Forces, and then gave copies to "participants of the special operation" during his alleged visit to the front. We do not know if the miraculous icon gives bonuses to defense or attack, so it is difficult to conclude what kind of actions of the Russian troops should be expected in this direction.

The icon belonged to Pyotr Vannovsky, who served as Minister of War from 1881 to 1898. It was presented to him by Emperor Alexander III. Here is what another Minister of War of the Russian Empire Alexander Rediger wrote about him:

During the entire reign of Emperor Alexander III, Vannovsky was Minister of War, and during all this time a terrible stagnation reigned in the military department. Whose fault it was, whether the sovereign himself or Vannovsky, I do not know, but the consequences of this stagnation were terrible. Incapable and decrepit people were not fired, appointments were made according to seniority, capable people were not promoted, but moved along the line, they lost interest in service, initiative and energy, and when they got to the highest positions, they already differed little from the surrounding mass of mediocrities. This absurd system also explains the terrible composition of the commanding persons, both towards the end of the reign of Alexander III, and later, during the Japanese war.

Mutual shelling and sabotage

The city of Shebekino in the Belgorod region on July 8 came under fire from the MLRS. According to Rybar, the shells hit the territory of the central market and the vegetable warehouse, a fire broke out, and one man was injured. In connection with the shelling, the suspension of the return of civilians to Shebekino from temporary accommodation centers was announced, said the governor of the region, Vyacheslav Gladkov.

The Russian Defense Ministry released a recording of a meeting chaired by Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Commander of the Joint Group of Troops (Forces) in Ukraine Valery Gerasimov, where they heard information about attacks by S-200 missiles on several targets in Russia.

“Air defense systems destroyed three cruise missiles that attacked the Kerch transport crossing and the Morozovsk airfield. There are no casualties and no destruction,” Viktor Afzalov, chief of staff of the Russian Aerospace Forces, said during the meeting.

According to various sources, three to six explosions occurred in the Kerch region. According to Rybar, these were not cruise missiles, since even with the maximum possible range of 300 km, they would have to be launched directly from the line of contact, which is associated with significant risks. The shelling could indeed be carried out by anti-aircraft missiles to the S-200 complex, modified for strikes against ground targets. The range of such a missile is about 400 km.

According to Afzalov, two more missiles were attempted to strike at the Shaikovka airfield in the Kaluga region . They were rejected by means of electronic warfare and fell in the area of ​​​​the settlement Bytosh . The Russian pro-military telegram channel "Military Informant" identified one of the missiles that fell there as an S-200.

In turn, we note that S-200 missiles, apparently, can really hit ground targets at a considerable distance – for example, in 2019, such a missile, launched by Syrian air defense systems during another attempt to repel an Israeli air raid, fell and detonated in Cyprus for more than 100 kilometers from the coast of Syria.

Despite the identification of missiles as S-200 (and not NATO's Storm Shadow) by the RF Ministry of Defense, once again Dmitry Medvedev managed to make threats. Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council wants to bomb all nuclear power plants in Ukraine and Europe:

“If an attempt to attack the Smolensk (Desnogorsk) NPP with NATO missiles is confirmed, it is necessary to consider the scenario of a simultaneous Russian strike on the South Ukrainian NPP, Rivne NPP and Khmelnitsky NPP, as well as on nuclear facilities in Eastern Europe. There is nothing to be ashamed of."

It should be noted that, for example, the South Ukrainian nuclear power plant is located only 260 kilometers from Crimea, 550 kilometers from the nearest settlement in Russia and less than 250 kilometers from the border with the occupied territories, which Russia calls its own.

Russian forces shelled the city of Liman in the Kramatorsk district of the Donetsk region with MLRS. Nine people died.

A blow was struck on Orekhov in the Zaporozhye region . Four people died on the spot: three women 43, 45, 47 years old and a 47-year-old man. Eleven people were hospitalized with injuries of varying severity. This is far from the first Russian strike on Orekhov : the city, which is located in the rear of the advancing Ukrainian group, is constantly subjected to shelling and bombing, from which the civilian population suffers (for example, a recent report by the Ukrainian editorial office of Radio Liberty about this).

In connection with the missile attack on Lviv, the question of Russia's exclusion from UNESCO is being raised , since the attack also took place in the area near the Old Town, which is included in the list of World Heritage Sites. Affected buildings are located in buffer zones – on the territory that allows you to maintain the safety of World Heritage monuments. Buffer zones, according to the rules of the organization, should be protected in the same way as the UNESCO sites themselves. The mayor of Lvov , Andrei Sadovy, after the attack, criticized the organization, which continues to include Russia, for the fact that there were no sanctions against Moscow.

Losses

The Mediazona and Meduza publications, as well as Dmitry Kobak, a machine learning teacher at the University of Tübingen, estimated Russian losses in the war with Ukraine from February 2022 to the end of May 2023 at 47,000 people (95% confidence interval in the range from 40,000 to 55 thousand). We are talking specifically about citizens of the Russian Federation under the age of 50, the loss of forces of the self-proclaimed “LPR” and “DPR” (formally became part of the Russian Federation in October 2022) was not analyzed in the study. The estimate was obtained on the basis of the open register of inheritance cases of the Federal Notary Chamber – it takes into account cases of inheritance of property subject to state registration (cars, apartments, land plots). Registry data allows calculating the excess mortality of young men in 2022-2023. The authors believe that the total irretrievable losses of Russia in the war (together with the seriously wounded) reach 125 thousand people.

As a reminder, as of July 7, 2023, there were 27,423 people in the list of the dead, which according to open sources is maintained by Mediazona and the BBC Russian Service and DNR). With adjustment factors, the total number of dead could be 55 thousand people, and the total number of casualties killed and wounded – 247 thousand people. It should be noted that if in 2022, on average, 250-300 dead were on the list every week, then recently the figure has jumped to 600-700 people a week, which is obviously due to the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

If in 2022, on average, 250-300 dead were on the list every week, then recently the figure has jumped to 600-700 people a week, which is obviously due to the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

In this context, let us point to the assessment of losses by British military intelligence. According to the agency, Russia loses an average of about 400 people every day for 17 months. Due to significant military losses, the provision of Russian civilian medical services is suffering, especially in border areas close to Ukraine. Most likely, many specialized military hospitals are reserved for wounded officers. At the same time, up to 50% of deaths could have been prevented with the right first aid, the report notes, citing the head of the combat medicine department of the Kalashnikov concern. We covered the situation in Russian front-line hospitals in detail in a recent article .

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky returned from Turkey with the commanders of the encircled Ukrainian units that surrendered in Mariupol , including the Azov regiment. According to the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov, Russia was not informed about the transfer of Ukrainian commanders.

According to Peskov, both Ankara and Kiev violated the terms of return, since according to the agreements, the servicemen from Azov were supposed to stay in Turkey until the end of the war (Peskov called the war in Ukraine a “conflict”). He added that in the context of preparations for the NATO summit, "they put a lot of pressure on Turkey", and Ankara, as a member of the alliance, shows solidarity with him. Russia understands everything perfectly, but the violation of the agreements does not paint anyone, Peskov stressed.

At the same time, as lawyer and human rights activist Nikolai Polozov noted in a conversation with The Insider, Russia did not conclude an agreement with Ukraine and Turkey when transferring captured Ukrainian commanders to Ankara until the end of the war and did not announce the signing of any agreement. All agreements with Turkish President Erdogan were “conceptual”, therefore, by returning the military to Ukraine, Turkey did not violate anything.

Recall that the commanders of the units defending the Azovstal plant in Mariupol , among 215 Ukrainian prisoners, were exchanged for 55 Russian servicemen, as well as the godfather of Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian politician Viktor Medvedchuk.

Meanwhile, Russia continues to suffer losses in the Zaporozhye direction . There were records of the destruction of the installation of the Buk anti-aircraft missile system and the Zoo counter-battery radar station . It is worth noting that not so long ago, one of the Russian pro-military telegram channels pointed out among the problems with counter-battery combat precisely the lack of Zoos in the troops, adding that the Armed Forces of Ukraine, on the contrary, have a lot of American-made radars.

The pro-Russian channel "Military Informant" published a video with the allegedly first lost PT-91 Twardy tank. It is alleged that this is the first recorded loss of the PT-91 tank delivered from Poland.

In addition, Ukraine Weapons Tracker researchers also note in the video the lost T-72EA tank (a modification of the Czech defense company Excalibur Army, which has been produced since 2022 specifically for Ukraine), as well as the M113 armored personnel carrier.

The Fighterbomber Telegram channel hints that one of the Russian Su-25s was damaged or shot down by friendly fire.

Telegram-channel "Warrior DV" posted a video of the reflection of the Ukrainian attack near Novodarovka and only after outrage in social networks admitted that the footage was filmed a month ago. Systematic attempts to “throw in” old videos under the guise of fresh ones probably indicate a certain lack of actual success.

OSINT researcher Ragnar Gudmundsson analyzed the data of the Oryx project on the losses of Russian tanks and came to the conclusion that the proportion of lost Soviet-made tanks is growing every month. According to him, an average of 51% of destroyed tanks since February 2022 are products of the USSR. For the month of June, 73% of all tanks destroyed are Soviet. Recall that back on June 30, OSINT-project Oryx volunteer Yakub Yanovsky reported that the documented losses of Russian T-80BV tanks (adopted in 1985) exceeded the number of lost T-72B3s (2013 model), which, in his opinion, says about the massive use of equipment from Soviet stocks.

At the same time, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu once again visited the training ground with rows of modern T-90s. This was reported by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. “The servicemen noted the high performance of combat vehicles, the accuracy of firing and ease of operation,” the agency notes in a press release.

Неизвестно — новые ли это танки или те, что уже показывали Шойгу в его прошлый визит, однако показанная картинка сильно разнится с тем, что публикуют военные с фронта.

Вооружения и военная техника

Официально объявлен пакет военной помощи от США на сумму $800 млн. В него вошли:

Общая сумма военной помощи, предоставленной США Киеву с февраля 2022 года, таким образом составляет уже более $41,3 млрд, а общий объем американской военной помощи Украине с 2014 года превысил $44,1 млрд.

Как пишет The New York Times, американцы собираются передать Украине кассетные артиллерийские снаряды M864. Это 155-миллиметровые артиллерийские снаряды, каждый из которых может пролететь около 30 километров, прежде чем разорваться в воздухе и выпустить 72 небольших суббоеприпаса, которые обычно взрываются при ударе о поверхность в пределах овальной области размером больше футбольного поля.

По заявлениям Пентагона, у кассетных боеприпасов, которое они отправят в Украину, процент несрабатывания суббоеприпасов составляет 2,35% и менее, что намного лучше, чем обычный показатель, характерный для подобных вооружений (этот показатель важен, так как в дальнейшем неразорвавшиеся боеприпасы могут представлять опасность для мирного населения).

Однако собственные заявления Пентагона указывают на то, что данные кассетные снаряды содержат более старые суббоеприпасы, вероятность отказа которых составляет 14% и более.

Чиновники Пентагона, на которых ссылаются авторы материала, заявили, что снаряды, которые они отправят в Украину, являются улучшенной версией того типа, который использовался в операции «Буря в пустыне» в 1991 году. Однако процент неразорвавшихся суббоеприпасов остается неприемлемо большим, говорится в статье.

Американский военный аналитик Майкл Кофман пишет , что поставка кассетных боеприпасов имеет важное значение для контрнаступления ВСУ. По его словам, наибольшую проблему для Украины составляет нехватка снарядов для артиллерии. Использование кассетных боеприпасов поможет преодолеть временные ограничения (проще говоря, так можно дольше обеспечивать плотность артиллерийского огня, достаточного для наступления).

Как пишет в Twitter ресурс Ukraine Battle Map, при дальности снарядов M864 в 29 км и рубеже огня в 7-10 км от текущей линии боевого соприкосновении украинские артиллеристы получат возможность огневого воздействия кассетными боеприпасами на 100% протяженности первой линии и 78% протяженности второй линии обороны ВС РФ на запорожском направлении .

Министр обороны Резников назвал пять принципов, в соответствии с которыми Украина будет использовать кассетные боеприпасы:

Также Резников разместил в личном аккаунте в Twitter видео со шведскими БМП CV-90, подтвердив, что они получены ВСУ и готовы к боевым действиям.

Кроме того, министр объявил о начале испытаний станции радиоэлектронной разведки украинской разработки — РПС-7 «Ингул».

Также в Украине вскоре начнется собственное производство турецких ударных беспилотников Bayraktar. Об этом заявил министр стратегических отраслей промышленности страны Александр Камышин. Ожидается, что строительство завода продлится около двух лет. Там также планируется производить тяжелый беспилотник Akıncı и беспилотный истребитель Kızılelma. Some of them will be equipped with Ukrainian engines.

Rheinmetall откроет завод по производству бронетехники в Украине в течение следующих 12 недель. Об этом сообщает CNN с ссылкой на гендиректора компании Армина Паппергера.

Крупнейший немецкий производитель оружия планирует строить и ремонтировать танки в Украине, а также обучать украинцев обслуживать бронетехнику. Ранее в этом году компания сообщила, что надеется открыть на территории Украины завод боевых танков стоимостью €200 млн, способный производить около 400 танков в год.

Также Камышин заявил, что Украина произвела в июне 2023 года больше минометных и артиллерийских снарядов, чем за весь 2022 год, однако конкретных цифр не назвал. Как сообщает Bloomberg, поставки оружия в Украину из США и их союзников до сих пор были основным направлением в войне, но Киев пытается наладить собственное производство.

Польша негласно передала Украине 10 вертолетов Ми-24 советской разработки. По словам источников The Wall Street Journal, вертолетный парк Украины остается небольшим по сравнению с российским, у него более простые системы наведения и обороны. Киев использует его осторожно, чтобы не потерять летательные аппараты.

Это далеко не первая необъявленная поставка вооружений ВСУ из Польши. На днях была опубликована фотография транспортно-заряжающей машины ПР-14МА польского зенитного ракетного комплекса С-125 Newa SC, а ранее — зенитной самоходной установки « Шилка » в польском камуфляже.

Появились фото и видеоматериалы применения украинскими силами трофейной установки ТОС-1А «Солнцепек». Его «затрофеили» ВСУ в прошлом году под Киевом. Однако, как пишут сами украинские военные, используется она редко из-за ограниченного количества боеприпасов и своей специфики.

О главных событиях войны 7 июля — в предыдущей сводке: «ВСУ наступают под Ореховым, мобилизованные бегут из Клещеевки, Украина получит кассетные боеприпасы. What's going on at the front .

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