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Marfa Smirnova: Hello! Thank you very much for joining our broadcast. I want to remind our viewers first of all that 7 years ago Kadyrov posted a video with you, where you were literally under the gun. Therefore, I think you probably have your own view on this whole story with Nemov and Milashina.
Putin is said to be unhappy. Although, of course, we cannot know for sure, but, again, there was some kind of chaotic reaction: everyone fussed, handed out assignments to each other. Why do you think the Kremlin tolerates (if it tolerates at all) Kadyrov for so long, who, it seems, is only muddying the waters? After all, one could find someone as loyal, but who would be much quieter.
Mikhail Kasyanov: Well, first of all, your question is why Putin (you assume, and I also agree with this assumption) ordered, or whatever, everyone to react to this in a non-routine manner. I think the answer is very simple: because the Prigozhin rebellion actually blurred opinions and ideas about the stability of the situation – and that it is possible to speak with Putin in the same language as Prigozhin spoke. Precisely to put pressure in a way that is generally difficult to imagine – an armed rebellion, armed pressure.
Therefore, against this background, a few days later, this attack on the journalist Elena Milashina and the lawyer Nemov, of course, falls into the same outline – that some people are incomprehensible, in one case armed formations, in the other – some bandit people attack a journalist and a lawyer who are going to fulfill their professional duty… Of course, this falls on such a situation of chaos in the country. In order to minimize such feelings, everyone began to react: what happened, ah, oh, and so on.
Your question is about Kadyrov, and why is he needed … You understand that Putin at one time decided not to take responsibility, not to take, say, political responsibility and take actions to resolve problems in Chechnya, let's say, politically.
What is a political way? This means finding a consensus among all groups representing, shall we say, the public of the Chechen Republic. There are many different ones – they call it teips. They have different opinions, different positions. And in order to reach a political settlement, a political consensus inside, you need to have long conversations, a round table and discuss, discuss, discuss the position of the federal government and the position of these different social groups.
As it used to be in Dagestan, when in the parliament of Dagestan, in principle, all peoples were present with their representatives. And the decisions were mostly made by the parliament, precisely for political consensus.
So, in Chechnya, Putin decided not to follow this long path and actually gave, shifted the responsibility for restoring order (let's call this word: restoring order) into the hands of the Kadyrov family – to his father, and after the death of his father, this automatically passed to Ramzan Kadyrov. Therefore, this is actually Putin's decision to make his life easier and relieve himself of responsibility: it seems that they sort it out themselves and put things in order themselves.
Vladimir Romensky: How did you feel when Kadyrov actually threatened to kill you? He declared Milashina a terrorist – and what followed. What are your feelings?
Mikhail Kasyanov: In any case, an ordinary normal person feels bad. Feeling anxious that you are being watched and thus threatened. But besides that, remember that Chechen fighters also put a cake on my head in a restaurant in the center of Moscow. There were about 20 people there. Everyone was wearing the same clothes – black suits, white shirts. About 20 people hooted there and defiantly put a cake on my head.
All this is a demonstration that they are masters not only in Chechnya, but also in Moscow. Therefore, I think that Muscovites, too – not only I feel these boundless actions on the part of this group of people who, on the one hand, have power, including these people who are in Moscow. They all have certificates of employees of the internal affairs bodies, in my opinion – I haven’t seen it for sure, but this is what I know from sources. So it's certainly a very worrying situation for everyone. When I saw myself in this video, of course, this is a very restless and unpleasant situation.
Marfa Smirnova: Restless and unpunished, I think. What's worse, remembering Boris Nemtsov, sorry.
Mikhail Kasyanov: Yes, no cases – neither criminal nor administrative, nor the attack on me in Moscow in a restaurant, which I just described, nor the placement of this video – of course, no actions were taken by the authorities.
Vladimir Romensky: And the customer behind the murder of Nemtsov has not been named either. Prigozhin rebelled after they actually began to take control of the Wagner PMC from him. Can Kadyrov, in your opinion, "break the chain" if Putin deprives him of the resource?
Mikhail Kasyanov: We see that Kadyrov is doing everything in no way to create any tension with Putin. He always tries to expand his boundaries with his behavior, we see, but he always retreats, retreats when some, let's say, comments are made to him on certain actions. Therefore, I think that he understands very well that he directly depends on one person – on Putin. And therefore, it is extremely important for him to keep not just his power, but to keep his, let's say, legal position and his existence in general. A beautiful existence, as we see from all his actions.
Marfa Smirnova: More about Prigogine. “I do not forgive betrayal,” said Vladimir Putin in an interview with Kondrashov. This amnesty that Prigozhin received, where does it come from? I understand that now it is probably pointless to guess what was the subject of bargaining and what else could be behind this rebellion. But, nevertheless, where does such forgiveness come from?
Mikhail Kasyanov: For example, I have a clear idea of the subject of bargaining and what Prigogine wanted. Prigogine wanted three things. First. He wanted precisely independence, associated simultaneously with the legalization of status. You know that the law on private military companies has not yet been passed. There is some text in the Duma, but it has not been adopted. Prigozhin is out of the legal field. He is the leader of illegal armed groups. In Russian, this is simply called bandit formations.
This is the first. The second is that he demanded for many months (and we all know this, it was public) from the Ministry of Defense weapons, shells and various ammunition, so that they would not give him less than what was promised, not on time or not enough.
And third. I am sure that this is followed by money, that money was also underpaid. Underpaid money for the maintenance of this entire Wagner group. You see, in the end, Putin admitted that the Russian state financed illegal armed groups from the state budget. He even named a number: 86 billion in one year. In fact, in violation of all laws, Putin gave orders to finance. He had an agreement with Prigogine.
So Prigogine demanded to fulfill these agreements. Agreements between two people, two private individuals – Putin and Prigogine. Here they are, two friends, two partners so agreed, so they decided that Prigozhin, by his actions, PMC Wagner gives success and demonstrates, including at the same time to the whole world and the Russian people, that he fights better than the army. And he thinks he deserves it.
The minister and generals of the Ministry of Defense did not fulfill the agreements and promises given by Putin. Months of pressure on them did not bring results, and he decided to put pressure on the main one, on the one who promised to do all this – on Putin. But to put pressure on Putin in such a way that it was hard to imagine that such a thing is even theoretically possible, of course, for Putin this is an unforgivable thing. And Putin will never forgive Prigozhin, for him he is now an enemy. Therefore, the situation is clear. And it is clear that there was an agreement. They gave him money and weapons, returned everything that was taken from him, and let him go, so to speak, for a walk and so on.
But "Wagner" is separated from him. It was clear from the beginning. We know that Prigozhin is not the creator of the Wagner PMC. "Wagner" was created by GRU officers who did not find a use for themselves in Russia in civilian life and decided to continue in this way. Then Prigogine joined them. They carried out all these African projects there, then the Syrian one, and now also the Ukrainian one. Therefore, it is a very comfortable and important tool in Putin's hands.
Therefore, Putin, as I see it, wants to keep Wagner, but he wants Prigozhin from there in general simply … Maybe even, in the future, liquidate him, since he will not forgive him for this. No one has humiliated Putin like Prigogine in 23 years. In addition to humiliation, he actually created a crack in the entire vertical, in all the stability of the notorious Putin. In fact, Putin's power has already floated, let's say so. Her erosion, weakness began.
And Putin himself feels it. A day or two later, having gone to Dagestan, hugging and kissing with the residents (on the same day, all sanitary restrictions were lifted, not only just in Putin’s guard – all sanitary restrictions were lifted in all state institutions, border guards no longer wear masks at the border) Putin assures himself and everyone that I, Putin, have full support. “The unity of the country,” he repeats this word all the time. Unity, we are all united, we are united, one nation, we resist evil, these criminals and so on. Because he himself feels that weakness is obvious to everyone, and first of all to people working in all state institutions, in the federal government and in the regional ones.
Vladimir Romensky: Mikhail Mikhailovich, I would like to continue counting Yevgeny Prigozhin's money with you. 86 billion is only a year for the maintenance of PMCs. Another 110 billion is for insurance payments: that is, the coffin and those who have lost their arms and legs. And another 80 billion a year Prigozhin earned in the Concord company, which supplied food to the Ministry of Defense, that is, the army. Almost a trillion, according to propagandist Kiselyov. In Vesti Nedeli, he voiced such an amount. How big is she? How can you assess this as a former prime minister of the country?
Mikhail Kasyanov: This is a huge amount. Therefore, I am surprised and want to understand Putin's motivation that he admitted this. First, speaking of the amount, of course, this is unprecedented funding. Therefore, it is clear that Putin strongly supports Prigozhin in all areas, so that there is money for everything and everything.
We understand that those people – ministers, deputy ministers, who provided this funding – all of them were and are under the threat of criminal prosecution. Why? Because they provided funding for illegal armed groups. What is prohibited by law. Not only is it forbidden to finance, but to communicate with them in general. They do not exist under the laws of the Russian Federation. And Putin forced them – within the framework of his agreements such conceptual with his friends. You see, not a single state institution, not a single state institution participated in the settlement of this conflict between two people. These two people got to know each other. One assured the other that the promises given to him were fulfilled, and the other was convinced that yes, indeed, to whom he instructed to fulfill, they fulfilled these promises.
But these people, who were supposed to fulfill these promises, are also under the threat of criminal prosecution. And he understands this very well. I guess that's why for these months they did not fulfill or poorly fulfilled this financing and the supply of these weapons, shells, ammunition, and so on – because all this is illegal. Putin forced them to do illegal things. And now Putin admits that he financed, that the state headed by him financed.
Vladimir Romensky: Wait, do you think that Shoigu and Gerasimov are afraid of a Russian trial for being accused of financing mercenaries?
Mikhail Kasyanov: Of course, that's right. Immediately, automatic hooks appear at the FSB on each of them. And it has been there for a long time, and on all other ministers, deputy ministers and so on. It's a system, it's a way of managing – planting corruption, planting illegal actions based on conceptual things, and not according to the law. And then responsibility under the law, if necessary, from the conceptual point of view that a person, as Putin calls it, betrayed or did something else. Of course, everyone has control. The whole system is based on this – on fear. Nobody can quit on their own. Nobody. This is the system of government created by Putin. This is how Putin's state works.
Marfa Smirnova: Volodya counted Prigozhin's money, but I would probably like to count the Russians' money. Now we are having disputes, especially, probably, with economists who have left, who now and then tell us in interviews that the Russians, of course, felt the consequences of the war. On the other hand, I, for example, have a personal fact. I communicate with my relatives, friends (I’ll say right away: yes, they live in Moscow, maximum in St. Petersburg), who say that they, in general, on their lives from an economic point of view (I’m not talking about moral and ethical) didn't really feel it. What is your vision? I don't know, maybe it's true that Putin's economic bloc is doing such a great job that Russians in big cities don't feel the war?
Mikhail Kasyanov: I think that they feel, especially those people who have already structured their lives in such a way that they use imported goods and often travel abroad on business trips, do business abroad or go on vacation. Of course, they feel it perfectly, and they swear that they don’t like all this, of course. Of course, that part of the population, the overwhelming majority, who live only in the ruble zone, let's say, in the ruble sense, is not particularly felt for them. But more than 20 million of us simply live below the poverty line. They both lived badly, and live badly, they don’t notice anything at all.
And the economic situation in general. Last year it was generally wonderful, I will say this, despite the fact that there were sanctions. Sanctions were introduced gradually. The issue of energy supplies, you see, was a general energy crisis in the world, which was exacerbated by the outbreak of war and the cessation or reduction in supplies and a partial refusal to purchase oil. And then, you know, the forced denial of gas pipeline deliveries to Europe.
Of course, all this has driven up energy prices. Last year, the position of the balance of payments, the balance of trade created simply a huge positive balance, which has never been. Therefore, the ruble, you remember, even strengthened. People did not even understand what was happening with the ruble – up to 53, or something, it strengthened. This was all due to the fact that unexpected volumes of foreign currency came into the country.
But at the end of the year, we see that in December the measure called the cap or ceiling on the price of oil came into effect, and in February the cap, the cap on the price of petroleum products. And we see that over the first 5 months of this year, the oil and gas revenues of the federal budget fell by 47%. That is twice as compared to the past, successful in terms of oil prices. Reduced federal budget revenues. At the same time, costs have risen.
So there was no problem at all in the past. This year there is tension, but it is not catastrophic. Yes, the deficit will not be 2%, but, apparently, 5% of GDP. It's a big deficit, but it's not a disaster. There is still money to be made right now. This deficit is financed by yuan, which are left or are in reserves. You know that only half of the reserves that were in foreign currencies abroad have been frozen, in European countries to a greater extent. And the fact that in yuan – it all works. And these reserves are now going to finance this growing deficit.
That is, the lack of income and increased spending on the war – this is funded by the yuan today. But, as I assume, at such a rate of spending, by the end of the year, these yuan will run out, almost run out, and next year will already be difficult. It is not yet clear how to resolve the issue. There are three ways: cutting costs, which is unlikely since the war, and funding for the war will continue…
Vladimir Romensky: You can raise taxes. To impose, for example, someone else with a supertax.
Mikhail Kasyanov: To raise taxes – this measure will not solve this issue. Yes, she can help, but she won't solve. And the other, of course, is the printing of money. Therefore, it will be a combination of all these factors: raising taxes, printing money, which will increase inflation, and, of course, privatize something else, that is, transfer the remaining state property into the hands of your friends. Also small amounts compared to the needs, but this will also be some way, this will also go into the common piggy bank. That is, their money, which they have already somehow earned in some way, which now will simply go out of pocket to register the ownership of state assets.
Marfa Smirnova: But even then, I think people will not feel any catastrophe.
Mikhail Kasyanov: Next year, I don't know. В этом году точно не ощутят, несмотря на то, что рубль сейчас ослабел.
Марфа Смирнова: Ну, там подорожание айфонов на 15% — мы с вами понимаем, это, наверное, для 1% населения еще какой-то важный элемент, а для остальных нет.
Михаил Касьянов: Нет, для остальных, во-первых, слава богу, что это не так. Санкции не нацелены на то, чтобы наказать население. Это не так. Санкции нацелены на то, чтобы не было тех технологий, которые используются при производстве вооружений, и второе — для того, чтобы Путину было тяжелее финансировать войну, все остальные спецслужбы и так далее. Поэтому всё это правильно. Вы удивляетесь, что почему-то население не страдает, а я, наоборот, подтверждаю правильность авторов этих санкций, что они рассчитывали эти санкции правильно, чтобы не наказывать население.
Марфа Смирнова: Нет, ну, подождите, я знаю, автомобилисты покупают теперь детали для иномарок втридорога, кажется. Всё-таки это удар.
Михаил Касьянов: Вот вы и отвечаете. Есть ли проблема? Вот вы сами находите ответ на этот вопрос. Ну да, есть. Это и есть — и айфоны на 15% дороже, и это. Вот какие-то там, там и там. Это всё правильно, но это не катастрофически. Я это тоже подтверждаю. Конечно, никакой катастрофы для людей это не несет.
Владимир Роменский: Михаил Михайлович, хотел с вами про другого когда-то премьера поговорить. Когда-то видный либерал Дмитрий Медведев сейчас превратился в несколько комичную фигуру. «Иблис», «хрюкающие подсвинки», цитаты великих людей из каких-то пабликов, по всей видимости, в социальных сетях, поскольку они несуществующие. «Медуза» писала, что таким вот образом, такими резкими заявлениями и сообщениями в социальных сетях Медведев пытается вернуть себе расположение Путина. А в чем вы видите причину такой трансформации?
Марфа Смирнова: Либерал — это, наверное, шутка?
Владимир Роменский: Ну, на Медведева было много надежд.
Михаил Касьянов: Я согласен с выводами «Медузы». Не знаю, на что они опирались, но я так же считаю — что это всё представление для одного зрителя, для Путина. Медведев хочет заверить и убедить Путина, что только он в случае чего может быть надежной опорой, надежным сменщиком, подпоркой, как угодно, — платформой. Только он близкий друг и надежный партнер во всём этом их государственном деле — в таком, как они это себе видят. Поэтому я думаю, что это так.
Владимир Роменский: Просто это выглядит весьма комично. Сидит человек чуть ли не на дереве и громче остальных кричит: «Ату его, ату!» И вот этим он должен заслужить расположение, как говорят они, начальника?
Марфа Смирнова: Как Маргарита Симоньян говорит.
Михаил Касьянов: Это нам кажется, что это всё комично, а ему самому это не кажется. Я так представляю, что он видит, что если это будут другие делать, это будет совсем комично, а для него — нет. Никто не может сказать, ни один из недоброжелателей Медведева не может сказать Путину, что мы видим, что он там виляет или юлит. Медведев знает по опыту прошлых лет, что его виляния или разговоры вообще на свободные темы всё равно докладывались Путину, и формировалась настороженность со стороны Путина к Медведеву. Теперь он это исправляет и не дает шансов кому-либо что-либо сказать о себе настороженное, сомнительное в отношении его приверженности, тотальной лояльности Путину. Он ее формирует — тотальную лояльность Путину.
Марфа Смирнова: Хотела бы остаться, наверное, в комичной плоскости. Не знаю, видели ли вы расследование наших коллег из центра «Досье». Они показали фотографии внутри якобы бронепоезда Путина, где есть хаммам и косметологический кабинет. Я, честно говоря, даже позавидовала Путину. Вы можете сказать, какими благами пользовались в ваше время чиновники? Не знаю, может быть, в Белом доме был спа-центр, о чем нам неизвестно.
Михаил Касьянов: Нет, ничего такого нет. В мое время это все было такого старого советского типа. Поэтому ничего такого, что создано за последние 10 или 15 лет, — такого ничего похожего не было. Всё было очень просто и обычно. Обычная советская стилистика.
Поезд, кстати, был. Специальный правительственный поезд, безусловно. Конечно, не этот поезд, а совершенно обычные вагоны с помещением для совещания, что-то такое. Но это обычная такая вещь. Даже у министра путей сообщения такой поезд был или вагон свой. Поэтому ничего в этом удивительного нет, такое бывает. А вот то, что сейчас происходит, — конечно, это какие-то особые меры предосторожности или меры защиты одновременно с мерами комфорта и так далее.
Марфа Смирнова: А такое вообще может быть? Понятно, что расследователи ссылаются на свои источники, но, опять же, это не 100% правда. Но вам как, опять же, бывшему человеку из правительства, как кажется?
Михаил Касьянов: Что, вопрос в чем?
Марфа Смирнова: Это всё может быть правдой — хаммам в бронепоезде Путина?
Михаил Касьянов: Я думаю, что это, может быть, просто преувеличивается, но какие-то такие удобства я могу просто себе вообразить. Это не связано со мной, что я был премьер-министром. Это никак не связано. Вы просто спрашиваете как у человека: может ли такое вообще теоретически быть, могут люди построить такое? Наверное, могут.
Владимир Роменский: А когда у Путина вообще появилась вот эта любовь к косметическим процедурам? Может быть, вы обратили внимание? Потому что кровь маралов, о которой тоже писали, подтяжки, ботокс…
Михаил Касьянов: Это не ко мне вопрос. Я не занимаюсь даже наблюдением за такими вещами, поэтому я вам ничего на эту тему сказать не могу. Мне это неинтересно, я не отслеживаю.
Владимир Роменский: Не знаю, просто для меня это всё рисуется в какой-то, простите, художественный фильм, где есть диктатор, который с утра отправляет сотни тысяч человек на убой, а вечером к нему приходит какой-то врач. И вот мне интересно было бы послушать вообще этого врача, который делает этому диктатору укол в лоб для того, чтобы у него было меньше морщин, если там не натягивает что-то… Но это ладно.
Марфа Смирнова: Я не хочу тебя разочаровывать, но услугами ботокса пользуется полмира точно. В этом ничего такого нет, в отличие от крови маралов.
Михаил Касьянов: Друзья мои, не со мной эту тему обсуждать. В принципе, мне неинтересно даже обсуждать такие вещи. Так же, как вы, я вижу всё это дело, но я к этому отношусь так, знаете, сторонне. Меня интересуют больше решения, которые эти люди принимают.
Марфа Смирнова: Вернемся. Вы говорили про размыв, трещину, которая образовалась после вот этого мятежа пригожинского. Вы вообще часто в интервью говорите про кризис системы, про закат режима. Каким тогда будет финальный аккорд?
Михаил Касьянов: Финальный аккорд Путина? Мы пока не знаем. Уйдет он сам или как-то еще это будет происходить, мы этого пока не знаем. Сейчас это предсказать тяжело. Существуют совершенно разные сценарии, безусловно, но так предсказать это невозможно.
Вопрос в том, что и я говорю, и вы это подчеркиваете, — может быть, не все в это верят, но в это необязательно верить. Я говорю и повторяю, что да, пригожинский мятеж даже опередил Украину в создании трещины в путинской системе. Безусловно, это не пройдет бесследно. В умах людей зародились сомнения: а Путин настоящий руководитель, действительно мудрый и удачливый лидер этого путинского, построенного им государства? Или всё-таки он какой-то другой? А кто-то скажет: «Вот видите, он слабый», — и что-нибудь еще такое.
Поэтому переосмысление, изменение отношения к Путину, а через это еще и изменение отношения к войне началось. Пригожин создал эту трещину. Предстоящие победы, успехи на поле боя украинской армии эти трещины расширят. И слабость режима будет увеличиваться. Она будет все более и более очевидна не только людям, находящимся на высоких должностях…
Марфа Смирнова: А трещина идет снизу или сверху?
Михаил Касьянов: Трещина идет сверху. Снизу сейчас ничего не идет и не пойдет в ближайшее время. Люди живут в страхе.
Марфа Смирнова: Вот я это и хотела услышать.
Михаил Касьянов: Именно так, люди живут в страхе. Вы знаете, Путин посвятил этому последние два года, пересажав всех в тюрьму, пытая там — это система делает, не сам он, а система, которую он создал, — безусловно, для того, чтобы продемонстрировать людям, что вы не должны делать никаких коллективных действий и вообще протестовать против всего. Живите, а я лучше знаю, что вам надо. Буду кормить вас с руки и гладить по головке, когда я этого захочу. Всё.
Владимир Роменский: Разве сверху это не еще лучше понимают, чем снизу?
Михаил Касьянов: Сверху именно это и понимают. Я именно это и хочу вам сказать. Сверху это понимают. И пригожинский мятеж именно ускорил их понимание. Поэтому я и говорю: трещина сверху уже образовалась и будет расти.
Vladimir Romensky: Thank you very much! Это был Михаил Касьянов.
