Suspension of participation in the START Treaty
Putin's speech was very weak. It's as if his speechwriters and advisers tried their best to find something that could show a show of force, but found nothing. The idea of withdrawing from the START treaty is nothing, because Russia now has fewer warheads and carriers, and there are much fewer carriers, and some of the old missiles are being withdrawn from circulation. If Russia withdraws from this treaty, then it will still not be able to technically increase the volume of armaments to the limits that the treaty allowed, until 2025 at least. And by this time the contract will almost end, it is concluded until February 2026. The same thing about the tests – also about nothing. Who can imagine that the United States, as a signatory to the cessation of testing treaty, will suddenly start testing? The United States is now the least concerned about the nuclear arms race, they are doing well with conventional ones. Now these are all indicators of obvious weakness – at least some formulations are being invented that may seem like evidence that Russia wants to straighten its shoulders, but in fact it is not. Putin even stressed that Russia is not withdrawing from the treaty, but "suspends participation" in it. What does "suspend" mean? Riveting new nuclear warheads takes time and technology, so it won't be quick. All this chatter did not affect the current agenda at all. A very weak week for Putin. I think that there will be no less weak performance of the Chinese. In terms of propaganda, this is a serious failure after Biden's trip and his statement today in Poland.
Preferential housing rental program for defense industry workers
Most people who work at defense enterprises have long had their own housing. In addition, enterprises are often located in single-industry towns, where there has never been a problem with housing. If Putin thinks that people will rush to work in such cities now and that they will need a rental benefit, this is stupidity. In fact, all these economic ideas of Putin are somehow very vague. Let's say it was really possible to announce new tax legislation in connection with the war – for example, that it is necessary to introduce taxes on basic industries in order to support the budget. Instead, Putin began to say that our guns are so good that we are not going to change anything. That is, the signal is that our economy is going as it goes, it is already good, the military-industrial complex plays an important role, but does not become central. He cannot carry out militarization, even if he wants to. If you didn't have time to address the nation last year, then didn't you have anything to say in the whole year, except for discussing homosexuals, issues of religion and gender identity? It looks like some kind of schizophrenia. And if you have something to say, then say that we need a war economy, we need discipline and a different management system – like during the war.
What will be in the message in a year
A year ahead of today's events is the end of the war. I don't think it will last a few more years, because the West needs results. Ukraine will be supported more and more actively. By the beginning of spring, the grave consequences for the Russian army will already be manifested, and the war will have to end. I think that the next message will be devoted to what we have achieved there and why the operation is being completed. [Putin] will say that we have made great progress, stopped a terrible threat, “and now the elections, I am again leading Russia forward” and so on. There will be distribution of new small tattoos, but the main thing is that there will be results, [statements] that we have achieved something, because it will be very difficult to go to the polls with 150,000 dead.
