For the first time since the spring massive shelling of the Kyiv region, Russian troops have stepped up on the territory of Belarus near the northern border of Ukraine. This is reported by the project "Belarusian Gayun" of journalist and activist Anton Motolko, who analyzes the movement of Russian troops across the territory of Belarus. He noted that recently Russian military aircraft, which previously brought ammunition, have been actively transferred to the country, paratroopers and pilots are being trained, and ground forces are being relocated. According to Motolko, there is a high probability that in the coming days there may be missile launches in the northern regions of Ukraine.
As Motolko's Belaruski Gayun project notes, on July 10, an A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft (AWACS) of the Russian Aerospace Forces, with registration number RF-94268 , was lifted into the air south of Minsk. The last time it rose on April 4 after active shelling of the Kyiv region from the territory of Belarus.
As the analysis of the project shows, all night on July 10, the A-50 flew in circles from Baranovichi to Slutsk, while changing altitudes from 9150 to 9700 meters. The plane finished work only at 04:39 and landed at the military airfield in Machulishchi at 05:10. In addition to the A-50, fighters took off throughout the night, working in shifts with the A-50 in pairs at altitudes from 7,000 to 8,000 meters.
The fact that this is a Russian aircraft is evidenced by the objective data of radio interception, the fact that Belarus does not and did not have such an aircraft. “In addition, there are photos with numbers and satellite images of the presence of up to 4 pieces of Russian A-50s at the airfields of the Republic from February to April,” the journalist says.
Motolko told The Insider that cargo planes, which previously transported ammunition, also continue to arrive in Belarus. After such arrivals, shelling of the northern regions of Ukraine began almost immediately.
“The AWACS A-50 was raised for the first time since the end of the massive bombardments from the territory of Belarus, which took place in the spring,” says Motolko. - Whether it was an exercise or a combat mission, we do not know, but so far the missiles have not been launched. In addition to the arrival of the A-50, which is essentially a harbinger of the bombing, Russian transport aircraft, ILs and AN-124s, have arrived in Minsk and continue to arrive, and most often they brought missiles, which were subsequently launched. There was a correlation - an airplane arrives, after half a day or a day rocket launches begin on the territory of Ukraine. Therefore, yes, we can say that the probability of an attack is increasing dramatically at the moment.”
In addition, Belarus until July 14 declared a no-fly zone from Minsk to the border with Ukraine.
According to Motolko, Russian planes will not fly into the territory of Ukraine. The shelling will be carried out near the border with Ukraine.
“The Russian military understands that they can be easily shot down there and they will be shot down,” the journalist says. - At the same time, Ukrainians have not launched any missiles into the airspace of Belarus for all this time. Therefore, the tactics of the "Russians" are something like this - they fly up to the border, launch missiles, turn around or return to base. At some point, the military airfield in Lida ceased to be used by Russian bombers, they relocated them to Russia, but at the same time they still took off in Russia, flew through the Gomel region towards Ukraine and launched missiles from Belarus.”
In addition, according to the Belarus Gayun project, in Belarus there is an increase in air training at five airfields at once, pilots from the Russian Federation have arrived and landing training has begun. On July 5-6, near the village of Zabozye (Yelsky district, Gomel region), training was held in firing from an underbarrel grenade launcher, presumably GP-25 "Koster". On July 7, exercises were observed, which were accompanied by the sounds of explosions, near the Sozh River in Cherikov (Mogilev region). There is also a noticeable increase in the number of training sessions at military airfields in Baranovichi, Machulishchi, Lida, Luninets and Bobruisk.
On July 12, it became known that the exercises were being conducted as command and staff exercises with territorial troops in the Zhlobin region. The Ministry of Defense of Belarus reported that during the exercises, the protection and defense of a territorial defense facility, "as well as serving at a checkpoint during participation in the implementation of martial law measures," will be worked out.